Why are things ' kicking off ' in Europe ?

[genuinequestion21]

Please excuse my ignorance. But why is Germany for example stressing so much about covid right now ?

I think we have more cases per 100 k than them and have been having high cases for months and we are still open and not ' that much ' talk about lockdown etc. It seems we are kind of just about ' OK '. Well at least we aren't going to plan B yet.

However in Germany there have been few cases and cases are now exploding and there's talk of lock downs etc.

Hospitals also seem to be full again. Whereas in the UK, they don't seem to be on the brink.

Why these differences ? Germany and UK have a very similar proportion of the population vaccinated. Is it because cases are seeming to go up very rapidly, whereas ours have been high but flat for ages ?

Why are their hospitals full again and ours are not ?

Please correct any factual information which is incorrect.

It certainly seems like there's life in this pandemic yet, unfortunately.
(I still know a lot of us who don't think we've had it, been using LFTs for a while so don't think asymptomatically either.)

BBC reporting our highest case numbers here are in children, who are very unlikely to be seriously ill.
Our lowest case numbers are in the elderly, which is good news.
Maybe there are high case numbers in middle-aged/elderly in Germany so much more likely to put strain on their hospitals

UK 80% 2 doses.
Germany 66%.

The NHS is under enormous strain.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2021/10/27/another-patient-dies-in-ambulance-waiting-outside-extremely-busy-ae-15495320/amp/

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/15/people-dying-ambulances-javid-health-secretary

It's dropping while cases are rising

Because of the week or so lag between symptomatc cases showing and thise people deteriorating enough to need admission. The current drop is reflecting the drop in cases a week ago. They will probably continue to drop for another few days.

The drop in admissions was slow to arrive after case numbers were dropping, and was a smaller proportion fall than the case number. That is not encouraging

@LarryTheLurker

UK 80% 2 doses. Germany 66%.

Is this comparing like with like? The UK 80% is for people who can be vaccinated, so everyone over 12yrs old. Some countries quote the number vaccinated as a percentage of their total population

It's not covid thats the big concern now, it's the whammy when other germs get you due to reduced immunity related to social distancing, and more serious illnesses taking hold as people have delayed seeking medical advice sooner. I fear for countries who had very strict lockdowns as the whammy will be greater.

I was under the impression we were ' reasonably ' stable.. and would remain so

When they say autumn will be 'bumpy' it's an indication that we can't count on reasonable stability

I've ko idea about most of your post but as pp says the NHS is not coping. It is massively screwed right now. If they'd managed to get things under control early this year we may have had a hope of clawing things back before winter but they didn't and we don't.

Sadly it will work perfectly for the "NHS is outdated" mantra as it is the backlog that is destroying us now so, whilst it has been caused by underfunding, covid waves, winter pressure etc, it will appear that the problem is waiting times, delayed operations etc etc etc. Im already imagining the headlines in the various tory papers early next year, it'll be a white wash 🙄

@IndigoC

Maybe they just care more about the 200ish people dying a die than the U.K. seems to.

I'm going with this

@IndigoC

Maybe they just care more about the 200ish people dying a die than the U.K. seems to.

It's the trajectory that's more of the issue.... It's not where you are today, but where you will be in a few weeks if no action is taken.

If cases are broadly similar, but the rate is flat in one location (U.K.) but rising steeply in another (Germany), the latter is far more of a concern.

The rate is not flat in UK - rising again and has been for 3-4 days already

@morticiamarkle

But isn't that a similar level to here?

I can only think they've just twigged they jabbed everyone late spring, and the jabs are just wearing off in time for the winter respiratory virus season and they're panicking.

I said this on another thread but got shouted down. They fully vaccinate 12-18 year olds right? That’s counted in their figures for total population. Our 12-18 year olds arnt eligible for 2 jabs yet. The percentage for our eligible population (adults) vaccinated is something like 87% So they have made the difference with kids who don’t get ill anyway. The 20% difference are likely to be adults then who are likely to be much more ill.

I think in the past when countries have had an unexpected surge like this it turns out to be a new variant. (Italy at the start, then the uk/Kent, then India) So maybe they are worried about that in Germany but its not confirmed yet.

Silverswirl that what what I was trying to say.

That's a really interesting point @Silverswirl and not something I had considered.

Because our Govt are ignoring it and pretending it's gone away!
Our unlocking was 'irreversible' if you remember, they are not going to increase restrictions no matter how bad it gets!

Letting 1000 plus people per week die from it is acceptable to the Govt and the British public - Germany not so much!

I think another reason could be that they used a lot of the Johnson and Johnson single vaccines and they are now seeing a lot of breakthrough cases from people who vaccinated with that. My friend that had that jab in early summer has today been given a Pfizer booster to try and limit cases. Also, Cologne has just held their Karneval celebration to boost business / tourism so that probably hasn't helped case levels.

199 deaths were reported today.
I don’t think we’re ok at all.
There’s just a collective decision not to do anything about it other than half heartedly offer boosters and hope for the best.

The curves from on the graphs in Germany and elsewhere indicate quite sharp exponential growth and hence the worry I think. We're not quite there yet but who knows what's coming as the weather gets colder.

@Warhertisuff

Perhaps because they didn't open up like we did in July, and we have far higher levels of natural immunity built up over the summer and early autumn. Maybe our strategy is paying off!

Yes we took a different approach

Theirs is fast growth and hopefully ours will remain stable

The other thing is our cases are high in young population, which is why we got the big dip recently

If older age group stay flat or go down then that’s better as they are more likely to be hospitalised

Also look at rate of testing

Winter’s only just getting started and already the numbers have rocketed in Europe just as the temperatures start to fall. I’m not sure imposing restrictions only onto the unvaccinated will have any effect, it’s going to be embarrassing if the numbers keep climbing regardless…

Could the spike in Germany be a new variant? It seems to be sudden.

Because German politicians have an aversion to "bodies piling high in the street" and want to protect their citizens. The UK government think that's a quaint notion as there won't be an election for a couple of years.