Why are things ' kicking off ' in Europe ?

[genuinequestion21]

Please excuse my ignorance. But why is Germany for example stressing so much about covid right now ?

I think we have more cases per 100 k than them and have been having high cases for months and we are still open and not ' that much ' talk about lockdown etc. It seems we are kind of just about ' OK '. Well at least we aren't going to plan B yet.

However in Germany there have been few cases and cases are now exploding and there's talk of lock downs etc.

Hospitals also seem to be full again. Whereas in the UK, they don't seem to be on the brink.

Why these differences ? Germany and UK have a very similar proportion of the population vaccinated. Is it because cases are seeming to go up very rapidly, whereas ours have been high but flat for ages ?

Why are their hospitals full again and ours are not ?

Please correct any factual information which is incorrect.

@Delatron

Maybe it’s because they kept some mitigations like masks. And everyone thought that was the reason why our cases were so high and theirs weren’t....and they have finally realised minor mitigations have zero impact and the waves just hit at different times...

Masks have just been shown in a recent global study to reduce incidence of covid by 53%. Hardly zero impact. www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/wearing-masks-single-most-effective-way-to-tackle-covid-study-finds

@HighSpeed33

In the UK most vulnerable people (over 50s etc) took the vaccine and are queueing up for the boosters. As a result the majority of current cases are in the young who are less likely to get seriously ill and be hospitalised.

In Germany many vulnerable people refused the vaccine. So there are a lot of current cases among older people who are getting very seriously ill.

That's really interesting, thank you. It is the same in Greece, where thanks to the example of many leaders of the Orthodox Church (some of whom have died "proving" their point) older people prefer to put their faith in God's protection rather than that of an untried vaccine. There is also the tendency to behave as if the vaccination has completely stopped the spread of Covid, so that although those who have been double or triple vaccinated "wear" masks if obliged to by local rulings, they use their masks as chin decorations and still fail to keep their physical distance from others, apparently thinking they must be completely immune to the virus and unable to pass it on, whether or not they have symptoms.

@Claudethecat
It’s interesting watching from afar. Obviously people are aware of the barefaced lies, the cheating, narcissism, plotting etc. But do they admire it on some psychological level? Perhaps a bit like Trump in America - an “at least he’s interesting” mentality? Although even Trump wasn’t gifted a cutesy nickname!

@Bagamoyo1

Looking at the charts, the UK do way more tests than most other countries, so we’re picking up more of our cases than they are. That could make us look relatively worse than we really are, which could then reflect in hospital admissions and deaths.

I think it's only Denmark that does more (and the only other country that does thorough sequencing on the samples too.) We've just overtaken the UK on cases per head of population, although our death rate remains lower. Like most of Europe thought, our current trajectory is 'worse' than the UKs relatively stable one.

I think there's two things that are giving the UK a more stable curve right now.

• You opened up fully in July. (Denmark opened up 'a lot' even before then.)
• You jabbed earlier, meaning that in July the effectiveness of the jabs was already waning (most of us middle-agers were still waiting for our jabs at this point in Denmark!)

So you got your big wave in the summer, which topped up a lot of the natural immunity through infection. And I think your Dr. Neil Fergusen was right when he said it was a better time to get the big Delta wave than the autumn or winter would be.

We have the same issue with it ripping through schools here. There's restrictions on classes mixing with other classes, although they're recommendations rather than legal requirements.

@Bluntness100

Yes it’s the vaccination rate. The vaccinated are much less likely to end up in hospital and die. They don’t have enough people vaccinated so they need to protect the population another way.

Here we are over ninety percent vaccinated and boosters being rolled out.

not enough people vaccinated, in some areas only 55% I think,

uk meanwhile has got 13m with boosters already.

Hospitals might currently be max out n the uk but not cuz of covid, or at least that's not what the graph shows in the official website where we're 25% where we were back last January .

Do you remember when in July we opened up totally and Chris Whitty said it was better to have a re-opening wave in summer, rather than in winter? Then a load of Labour people including Keir Starmer said it was madness and reckless.

This is why.

ps The booster will make a massive difference, so get it when available. It reduces your chance of symptomatic Covid by 95% ver two jabs. If everyone got boosted Covid would almost disappear.

@Bluntness100

Yes it’s the vaccination rate. The vaccinated are much less likely to end up in hospital and die. They don’t have enough people vaccinated so they need to protect the population another way.

Here we are over ninety percent vaccinated and boosters being rolled out.

I don't think this is right. Do you have any data to show that ? I'm looking on ourworldindata.org and UK and Germany vaccinations rates are quite similar on there. Unless that data is incorrect, UK is at 74 percent vaccinated vs Germany at 70 percent vaccinated.

i believe you have to pay for testing in germany

that would be off putting for a start.

So you got your big wave in the summer, which topped up a lot of the natural immunity through infection. And I think your Dr. Neil Fergusen was right when he said it was a better time to get the big Delta wave than the autumn or winter would be.

I think CMO too but yes it could be the factor

"Maybe they just care more about the 200ish people dying a die than the U.K. seems to."

Yes, the UK has become totally complacent about the 40K cases and 200 deaths per day, they think it is normal when it isn't.
Germany yesterday had 65,371 cases and 264 deaths. The day before, it was 52,826 cases and 294 deaths.
There has been a real anti vax/anti lockdown culture in Germany and this is why the virus is getting out of control.
The ones to suffer will be the elderly, infirm and poor.

This graph was in the Times today (the orange line is the UK). Concerns are not just about numbers but the rate of increase.

we have a much smaller popular than germany , has anyone looked at the figures in that respect?

@Bagamoyo1

Looking at the charts, the UK do way more tests than most other countries, so we’re picking up more of our cases than they are. That could make us look relatively worse than we really are, which could then reflect in hospital admissions and deaths.

I’m not sure you can assume relative level of testing is then reflected in levels of hospital admission/deaths.

If you’re coughing and wheezing enough I suspect you’ll get admitted and tested in most countries ATM..

I’m guessing, open to correction, but I would have thought across nations it’s possible the number of cases in ITU that are perhaps a better indication of the level of disease across countries.

I think Europe at least if not more vaccinated than us. But the protection is waning due to timing just as Delta hit them.

@OrangeBlossomsinthesun so why aren't Wales and Scotland doing much better than England if that studies correct? Why is Europe struggling? There can be all the studies in the world but if they conflict with reality they're bollocks

is this a competition?

are we hearing about Europe's rates to make us feel better about our own?

[quote ecceromani]@sjxoxo Scotland is part of the UK.
It is law to wear a facemask mask here indoors, including schools.
We also have vaccine passports.
I think Wales also has these rules so what you are talking about is not UK wide.
And we still have high case numbers and struggling hospitals [/quote]
Im in Ireland also but had to travel to Northern Ireland twice in the past two weeks for business and found the difference in behaviour quite shocking, very little mask wearing, an office of 11 people with one wearing a mask, people shaking hands (when I arrived two strangers I had business with attempted to shake my hand), social distancing doesn't appear important either, I have friends there who own a service station and large shop, they said its been a nightmare trying to make sure customers wore masks and sanitised their hands even at the height of the pandemic. I was so uncomfortable that I cancelled a meeting there for next week. Such different attitude just a few miles away

I am surprised to read this about NI as I thought it was being taken more seriously there. But they are introducing vaccine passports there so the authorities obviously agree with you!

And yes Wales and Scotland both have stricter rules than England (which doesn't really have any!) But are case rates significantly higher in England, I didn't think they were?

The Guardian had an article yesterday saying that masks reduce transmission of covid by 50%. That seems like a good reason to wear them, but not sure if the study only covered "proper" masks like FFP2.

The Guardian had an article yesterday saying that masks reduce transmission of covid by 50%

Sadly this is not true although I wish it were. Its been debunked.

Because the UK government decided long ago that we were aiming for herd immunity by letting everyone catch it once they had two vaccines and less likely to die. Our numbers are falling because we've all had it already! Europe delayed this by not lifting restrictions early enough and now everyone is catching it at the worst point in winter and when the vaccines are waring off!

@genuinequestion21

The UK counts in its numbers the % of the population over the age of 12 who have had their vaccine, currently 88.1% first dose, 80% second dose and 24.1 % third or booster dose.

I think in Germany the figures are lower, especially when it comes to booster doses, from memory they are at the 2-3 % mark ?

[quote GiveMeNovocain]@OrangeBlossomsinthesun so why aren't Wales and Scotland doing much better than England if that studies correct? Why is Europe struggling? There can be all the studies in the world but if they conflict with reality they're bollocks[/quote]
Well seeing as you know better than a global study and your professional scientific opinion based on months of research using mutliple sources is "bollocks" I expect you can explain
I didn't say it explains the difference between countries as that involves multiple different factors, I said masks clearly have more than "zero impact"

@Kikkomam

The Guardian had an article yesterday saying that masks reduce transmission of covid by 50%

Sadly this is not true although I wish it were. Its been debunked.

Link to the debunking please

@MrsLargeEmbodied

is this a competition?

are we hearing about Europe's rates to make us feel better about our own?

It sometimes looks like that….

Somebody rightly said upthread something along the lines of a virus is going to virus….there are going to be waves and various countries are going to in or out of phase with other countries…..

I’m certainly not sure anybody is in a position yet to say that the Uk opening up early was a masterpiece of tactical thinking…we’ll have to wait and see.

Looking at the UK from the outside, there does seem to be remarkable complacency about your constant high level of deaths - a very compliant media, and perhaps a more individualistic culture in England? I couldn’t believe Johnson talking about the new wave in Europe - the only reason the UK hasn’t a new wave is because it’s been in a constant flood since July. I understand there is a problem with vaccination levels in Germany though which means a high no of cases is going to cause them more problems.

@Kikkomam

The Guardian had an article yesterday saying that masks reduce transmission of covid by 50%

Sadly this is not true although I wish it were. Its been debunked.

I haven't read the Guardian article concerned, but wonder if it is associated with this recent research from the BMJ, which, to the best of my comprehension, carefully does not put any actual figures to their results? Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis