Lockdown for the unvaccinated - or a full lockdown for everybody?

[PrincessNutNuts]

Which would you choose?

@Beachcomber
Except now there is evidence that those who have been vaccinated are far less likely to transmit the virus.
It’s about the people you infect, and the people they infect, and the people who end up seriously ill and in hospital.

So logically, if you’re just vaccinated then you’ll be allowed to fully mix. But then after one month, it wanes a bit so you’d have to spend a bit less time mixing — perhaps one day a week working from home. And the second month, perhaps two. The third means no visiting old relatives, and fully working from home.

And perhaps if you’re ever foolhardy enough to forget to book your booster on time then you don’t get your bins collected. Can only go out for exercise on odd numbered days of the week, or travelling anti-clockwise on the city ring. Have to stand on one leg while at the bus stop.

Actually sounds quite fun.

@puppeteer more fun than being on your death bed, not getting timely cancer treatment or adequate maternity care in a full hospital, yes.

[quote SpringKit]@Beachcomber
Except now there is evidence that those who have been vaccinated are far less likely to transmit the virus.
It’s about the people you infect, and the people they infect, and the people who end up seriously ill and in hospital.[/quote]
Where is the evidence that those who have been vaccinated are far less likely to transmit the virus than those who are recovered from covid?

Because that's what I'm talking about.

[quote SpringKit]@Beachcomber
Except now there is evidence that those who have been vaccinated are far less likely to transmit the virus.
It’s about the people you infect, and the people they infect, and the people who end up seriously ill and in hospital.[/quote]
You keep saying this even though I’ve already linked you to two recent papers that say the opposite. Immunity from infection wanes within months (nature) and “ fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts” (lancet).

Sorry, it doesn’t say the opposite, but it does show that what you are saying about transmission is incorrect.

Well exactly.

I can see that somebody who is not vaccinated and who has not had covid is more at risk of becoming ill with covid and therefore transmitting it than a vaccinated person.

However the data definitely seems to demonstrate that not only does vaccination protection against infection wane quickly and significantly but that the viral load of vaccinated people with breakthrough infections is similar to that of infected unvaccinated people (as are rates of transmission).

But really the subject I'm posting about is the unscientific policies which treat recovered persons as covid naive whilst treating vaccinated persons as 100% immune when we know that both of the above are nonsense.

First post should say immunity against* infection (after vaccination).

But really the subject I'm posting about is the unscientific policies which treat recovered persons as covid naive whilst treating vaccinated persons as 100% immune when we know that both of the above are nonsense.

Completely agree. I’ve been banging this drum for months.

@bumbleymummy

But really the subject I'm posting about is the unscientific policies which treat recovered persons as covid naive whilst treating vaccinated persons as 100% immune when we know that both of the above are nonsense.

Completely agree. I’ve been banging this drum for months.

Glad I'm not alone in this!

I'm so annoyed about it.

It doesn’t make any sense.

I came across this article today which may suggest why there’s not much guidance on this?
I don’t know. I’m not sure what to make of it.
www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2417

Unsure whether this has been mentioned before or if anyone is aware of it but many other countries are doing a strategy pretty much as we were doing called 'hammer and the dance'? Explained to me by my scientist DB. It has been proved an unsuccessful method in this situation by most countries (including England) some have abandoned it and some continue. Those that continue will have problems (possibly at a lower level) for a long time to come. Those that abandoned it earlier have had issues (possibly at a higher level) but will ultimately be in a better position healthcare and economically quicker. England has basically been middle ground so we will get the worst and the best of both! We will bumble along in the middle with cases etc up and down within a linear model, with threats and 'low level restrictions' for a while yet without any massive peaks of fatalities or seriously ill people but without the economic or social diversity recovery needed.

@Beachcomber
@bumbleymummy

This is an excerpt from the New Scientist. Dated end of October.

People who are fully vaccinated against covid-19 are far less likely to infect others, despite the arrival of the delta variant, several studies show. The findings refute the idea, which has become common in some circles, that vaccines no longer do much to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“They absolutely do reduce transmission,” says Christopher Byron Brooke at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “Vaccinated people do transmit the virus in some cases, but the data are super crystal-clear that the risk of transmission for a vaccinated individual is much, much lower than for an unvaccinated individual.”

A recent study found that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated.

@GreeboIsMySpiritAnimal

Shielding for the vulnerable; absolutely 100% back to normal for everyone else…………….

You obviously arent Vulnerable !
This is an awful suggestion.

Lock the most vulnerable away!? AGAIN!

@WaterAndRichTea infuriates me as well.

And is often said by those who hate any separation between the vaccinated/unvaccinated - yet more than happy to separate off the vulnerable. When vulnerable people can’t even afford the choice to be vulnerable.

Hypocrisy.

@SpringKit the quote from the lancet (above) is from October as well. The nature paper is recent too. I think it’s fairly obvious from the number of cases that we’re seeing in vaccinated people that protection against infection wanes. Hence the need for boosters in the vulnerable.

[quote SpringKit]@Beachcomber
@bumbleymummy

This is an excerpt from the New Scientist. Dated end of October.

People who are fully vaccinated against covid-19 are far less likely to infect others, despite the arrival of the delta variant, several studies show. The findings refute the idea, which has become common in some circles, that vaccines no longer do much to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“They absolutely do reduce transmission,” says Christopher Byron Brooke at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “Vaccinated people do transmit the virus in some cases, but the data are super crystal-clear that the risk of transmission for a vaccinated individual is much, much lower than for an unvaccinated individual.”

A recent study found that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated.[/quote]
Thanks. I've read that article before and I have also read the study that it refers to.

But it doesn't answer my question.

What I'm asking about is how transmission rates in vaccinated people compare to transmission rates in unvaccinated recovered people .

I'm asking about a comparison in reinfection and transmission rates in recovered people (i.e. people who have had covid) versus breakthrough infection rates and transmission in vaccinated people.

I'm asking about this as I have a personal interest in it. I have recovered from covid and I am unvaccinated. I live in a country which has covid passes. Mine is valid for 6 months post infection then I will no longer be eligible for it and my movements will be restricted. A vaccinated person of my age has the pass for an indefinite amount of time.

I think that is unfair, unhelpful to the recovery of society and the economy and a policy which is not based on the science.

I am not disputing that vaccinated people contract covid at lower rates than unvaccinated covid naive people. (Although viral load and transmission rates seem to be similar in these 2 groups if they do contract covid.)

@Beachcomber It is unfair, it's not justified by any science, but I also suspect it will no longer remain the case going forward, france have already announced it haven't they?

It looks like Austria have realised what a difficult and pointless exercise it was and has already abandoned the unvaccinated lockdown and just opted to lockdown the whole country instead.

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]@Beachcomber It is unfair, it's not justified by any science, but I also suspect it will no longer remain the case going forward, france have already announced it haven't they?[/quote]
Do you mean the end of the pass?

I may not be up to date with the latest news but I understood that the government want to extend the pass until July (the Senate don't want it to go beyond February). There is nothing to stop it being extended further if the government can justify that it is in the interest of public health.

I'm really concerned for daughter who has had covid and has also reacted very badly to a vaccine in the past. I do not want her getting the covid vaccine, I don't think she needs it (young and covid recovered) and I am very concerned about how she will react to it. Her doctor is happy not to vaccinate her but she is a student and it will be hard for her to have her movements restricted.

I don't care so much for myself if my movements are restricted even though I think it is unfair and political rather than scientific.

No, I mean the end of the unlimited duration for vaccination, Here's france saying vaccination is also only for 6 months.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59229041

Ah yes I see what you mean. I think it is only for the over 65s at the moment. If you are 45 and were vaccinated a year ago for example your pass is currently still valid. This may change of course!

@Thewiseoneincognito

It looks like Austria have realised what a difficult and pointless exercise it was and has already abandoned the unvaccinated lockdown and just opted to lockdown the whole country instead.

Apparently Austria are imposing mandatory vaccination from February.

www.politico.eu/article/austria-mandatory-coronavirus-vaccination-february/

Proof of the slippery slope…

Austria are really taking a huge step here. Do not agree with it at all