Lockdown for the unvaccinated - or a full lockdown for everybody?

[PrincessNutNuts]

Which would you choose?

[quote SpringKit]@MauraandLaura
The hospitals are full. That’s the point. I need to know that when my children, my family - other children, other families - need hospital care they can get adequate treatment.

Who are you to say that children don’t need vaccines? The vast majority of the best qualified medical professionals worldwide are asserting that it’s the best thing to do. So I’ll do it, and I don’t want to be swayed by unqualified hearsay - and frankly - ill informed posters on social media.
If being vaccinated controls the spread of the infection, and means hospitals can cope and provide good care then it’s the best thing to do. I doubt my daughter would get very ill if she caught Covid, but it’s about the other people she infects.[/quote]
But according to the BBC today, Covid is now only a small part of NHS pressure.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59249409

While this still obviously creates a hospital issue, healthy people should not be restricted "just in case" they need to make use of the NHS - for any reason.

I have seen many many people saying they or their children are infected for the second time.
In the cases of children who haven't been vaccinated they are saying the second infection was far worse.
Hopefully the cases im hearing about are in the minority through.

Interesting studies hopefully correct but I do worry it is too early to fully analyse the data. If we remember the study which showed children rarely got covid with data collected during lockdown which has been proven wrong now. IN terms of reinfections 18months on from the pandemic start is still fairly short term. especially if the general coconscious is that immunity is still strong 9 months later, if reinfections are going to be an issue it may not be apparent until late 2022/early 2223

Good posts @Beachcomber

@Covidworries I would imagine that if the virus is going to continue to circulate (as seems to be the case) then we will constantly have our immunity ‘boosted’ by exposure. I think we will eventually move towards this being an annual vaccine for the most vulnerable groups, like the flu vaccine. And it should not be made mandatory/necessary for access etc.

@bumbleymummy

Lets hope your right

@MauraandLaura
You’ve linked an article from Feb2021.

The latest research (my article is from Oct 2021) is that it does:

People who are fully vaccinated against covid-19 are far less likely to infect others, despite the arrival of the delta variant, several studies show. The findings refute the idea, which has become common in some circles, that vaccines no longer do much to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“They absolutely do reduce transmission,” says Christopher Byron Brooke at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “Vaccinated people do transmit the virus in some cases, but the data are super crystal-clear that the risk of transmission for a vaccinated individual is much, much lower than for an unvaccinated individual.”

A recent study found that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated.

If you're going to go "date of publication"
www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext

UK data, which said:
"We identified similar SAR (25%) in household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases as in those exposed to unvaccinated index cases (23%). This finding indicates that breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people can efficiently transmit infection in the household setting"

25% to 23% - ie the same (actually higher in the vaccinated, but of course well within any error bounds)

The data is certainly not crystal clear, it's almost impossible for any study to be crystal in this environment there are too many confounding things - behavioural changes between vaccinated and unvaccinated and regional differences in infection and other controls being the most important difficulties to control for in such studies.

We don't have absolute evidence for any for much here, so don't go asserting things are true 'cos of an article in a news paper.

@SpringKit

“Estimated BNT162b2 effectiveness against any SARS-CoV-2 infection was negligible in the first 2 weeks after the first dose. It increased to 36.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.2 to 40.2) in the third week after the first dose and reached its peak at 77.5% (95% CI, 76.4 to 78.6) in the first month after the second dose. Effectiveness declined gradually thereafter, with the decline accelerating after the fourth month to reach approximately 20% in months 5 through 7 after the second dose.”

Also from October - www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114

This one too -
“ Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts.”

doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00648-4

@FairFuming

Neither. My kids can't be vaccinated So while I've had 2 and a booster it would make no difference for me at all.

Generally those who cannot be vaccinated on medical grounds are exempt from the rules. As are children for whose age group vaccination is not approved yet.

@SpringKit

A recent study found that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated

So 37% likely to be infectious to other people.

So vaccinated people still have a significant % of being infectious. I am just using the stats you are giving me

Can you imagine if it was 37% likely to die? Rather than the 2% Holy shit people really would be screaming for lock downs then, the NHS really would be fucked.

Like I said it depends which way you look at it.

Well 63% less likely to infected others also means that a non vaccinated person is 63% more likely to infect others. So using those sats id rather be vaccinated even if it didnt protect me. So as vaccination also protects me its win win.
AND vaccination is a choice so if you dont want to you dontnhave to

[quote MauraandLaura]@SpringKit

A recent study found that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated

So 37% likely to be infectious to other people.

So vaccinated people still have a significant % of being infectious. I am just using the stats you are giving me

Can you imagine if it was 37% likely to die? Rather than the 2% Holy shit people really would be screaming for lock downs then, the NHS really would be fucked.

Like I said it depends which way you look at it.[/quote]
It’s 63% less likely than unvaccinated people. People who aren’t vaccinated don’t transmit disease 100% of the time. Your logic is flawed here.

@Covidworries

Well 63% less likely to infected others also means that a non vaccinated person is 63% more likely to infect others. So using those sats id rather be vaccinated even if it didnt protect me. So as vaccination also protects me its win win. AND vaccination is a choice so if you dont want to you dontnhave to

Unless the unvaccinated person is already immune after being infected.

And I think this thread is highlighting that it’s not much of a ‘choice’ if you’re being pressure into something/having your life restricted etc

People who aren’t vaccinated don’t transmit disease 100% of the time

Well yeah I totally agree with this!

not sure what the rest of your post is about though..

@MauraandLaura yes, your logic is flawed.

And this is what infuriates me.

Things are made clear to you by health professionals, people who are experts. People who have spent years studying and analysing.

Yet you still think your flawed interpretation is correct, and will blurt out things like ‘children don’t need the vaccine’.

Why do you think you know better than the best health professionals worldwide who have carried out in depth, peer reviewed research?

People who are vaccinated are less likely to infect than those who are unvaccinated. Far less - as stated in the article. But hang on @MauraandLaura has a different interpretation so she must be right.

There was a lot of support for a lockdown of the unvaccinated when YouGov asked about it yesterday:

You mean support for The Austrian Solution!!!

@SpringKit is 20% after 5-7 months ‘far less’? I guess it’s subjective. Personally, I wouldn’t say that was far less.

@PrincessNutNuts

There was a lot of support for a lockdown of the unvaccinated when YouGov asked about it yesterday:

I think they need to put a public announcement out that they are doing these polls tbh as I wasn't aware they were asking these questions and I am very sure a hell of a lot of people don't either.

@PrincessNutNuts the majority of people thought Brexit was a good idea

Just join YouGov @MauraandLaura and YouGov will invite you to answer them every day.

@PrincessNutNuts

Just join YouGov *@MauraandLaura* and YouGov will invite you to answer them every day.

And also YouGov do announce the daily questions on their Twitter every morning.

Not going to do either. We had freedom day. If the government lied about freedom day then they need to resign or be removed.

Their choice.

@PrincessNutNuts

There was a lot of support for a lockdown of the unvaccinated when YouGov asked about it yesterday:

Although a majority of people who answered that question, it's not a particularly overwhelming majority is it? Plus have to say if I did a similar poll in my generally very Conservative area (the opposition really don't even bother trying it's that dyed in the blue), with a large percentage of elderly residents, I can tell you the answer would be overwhelmingly the opposite.