Lockdown for the unvaccinated - or a full lockdown for everybody?

[PrincessNutNuts]

Which would you choose?

“ Who cares if a young man in his 20s is unvaxxed?

Why not focus efforts on getting the vaccine hesitant in their 40s and 50s vaxxed? Or get them tested for antibodies and strongly advise a vaxx if theu don’t have it?”

Yep. And include a campaign targeted at overweight/obese people. And get the boosters out to the elderly and vulnerable to reduce their risk of hospitalisation.

@UsedUpUsername

Well, no, lockdowns and other suppression measures clearly reduce infection rates

No, there’s very little evidence that lockdowns work.

hence why they were implemented in various forms globally

WHO basically threw out their infectious disease playbook that was, in fact, evidence based and used knowledge built up over decades of working in this field. We still don’t know why that happened.

I don't understand these claims that governments are introducing them purely to be sadists instead of an infection control measure

They are completely unnecessary now that vulnerable people can get a vaccine that will prevent death. You cannot ‘control’ an infectious disease that is as widespread as COVID. It’s as silly as trying to control the common cold fgs

This isn't true. It is obviously very difficult to evaluate lockdown efficacy in a situation without a couterfactual (i.e., what would have had happened in the UK in all remained identical but with no lockdown), but several epidemioloigcal groups have attempted to evaluate the benefit/harm profile.

I have linked this paper before but here it is again

gh.bmj.com/content/6/8/e006653

"While there are certainly costs to be expected from intervening against COVID-19—every decision has a cost, after all—the counterfactual of an unmitigated epidemic makes these restrictions far less damaging than some have suggested. These counterfactuals are not hypothetical and have been observed tragically globally. It appears clear from evidence to date that government interventions, even more restrictive ones such as stay-at-home orders, are beneficial in some circumstances and unlikely to be causing harms more extreme than the pandemic itself."

They are completely unnecessary now that vulnerable people can get a vaccine that will prevent death. You cannot ‘control’ an infectious disease that is as widespread as COVID. It’s as silly as trying to control the common cold fgs
I didn't say they were, I was responding to your claims that they do not work in suppression transmission, and the only reason governments used them was to be "sadistic".

[quote bumbleymummy]@MatildaIThink

“ Estimated BNT162b2 effectiveness against any SARS-CoV-2 infection was negligible in the first 2 weeks after the first dose. It increased to 36.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.2 to 40.2) in the third week after the first dose and reached its peak at 77.5% (95% CI, 76.4 to 78.6) in the first month after the second dose. Effectiveness declined gradually thereafter, with the decline accelerating after the fourth month to reach approximately 20% in months 5 through 7 after the second dose.”

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114[/quote]
Which is why, now that most people are in that window (5 through 7 months after the second dose, the boosters are thankfully being rolled out.

Immunity after infection is thought to wane after about 6 months isn't it? Which I suppose is why recovered from Covid certificates for the EU pass countries which accept it as one of its 3 criteria, pull it after 180 days as the holder is no longer considered to be immune.

[quote bumbleymummy]@ollyollyoxenfree

“It’s not like these silly mandates have worked anywhere else they’ve been implemented (see: Ireland)”

Mandates - not lockdowns/restrictions.

And what you seem to keep selectively forgetting is that the protection against infection wanes. So while a vaccinated person may be less likely to contract the virus 2 months after their second jab, they are much more likely to contact it 5/6 months after it.[/quote]
The thread is specifically on lockdowns, hence why I replied as such.

Not sure why you're @ing me about claims about vaccine protection waning, what are you actually replying to?

Neither. My kids can't be
vaccinated So while I've had 2 and a booster it would make no difference for me at all.

www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/

Reduce transmission by up to 63%. With our daily positive results 40k ish that would make a difference.

So get vaccinated or wfh.

We should not vaccinate children.

Given that the benefits of vaccinating children outweigh the risks and that the higher circulating levels of Covid are the more the benefits outweigh the risk this is an odd position to take.

Children are less at risk than adults but the risk isn’t zero. Deliberately creating a policy that leave the most children possible hospitalised with Covid, pims-c or long term health issue seems a little unwise.

I have linked this paper before but here it is again

Lol this is not a research paper. Didn’t you see the huge COMMENTARY at the top?

@UsedUpUsername

I have linked this paper before but here it is again

Lol this is not a research paper. Didn’t you see the huge COMMENTARY at the top?

I never said it was.

Have you read it?

I did. It was not convincing. It conflated lockdowns with travel bans, which is how Australia/NZ escaped the brunt of the first wave. Among other things

@UsedUpUsername

I did. It was not convincing. It conflated lockdowns with travel bans, which is how Australia/NZ escaped the brunt of the first wave. Among other things

I am finding a little tricky to understand how you read and critically evaluated, and subsequently dismissed, a paper in 20 mins...

I don't want a full lockdown but would favour a vaccine passport scheme for some indoor spaces - pubs, restaurants, cinema etc.

@SapereAude

Which is why, now that most people are in that window (5 through 7 months after the second dose, the boosters are thankfully being rolled out.

To over 50s (recently extended to over 40s).

Immunity after infection is thought to wane after about 6 months isn't it?

9+ months in the majority. Some studies have shown up to 12.

@ollyollyoxenfree you replied to her post that was talking about the impact of mandates specifically. The second part was to pafmo

@bumbleymummy

Havingnthe virus doesnt make you immune.
Im reading lots of people sayung they are positive again after having virus in 2020 early 2021.
Have you any evidence that the virus ensure immunity?

Its quite a dangerous thing to post as somepeople may not think to test next time thye get symptoms 8f they are ked to believe they are now immune

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

We should not vaccinate children.

Given that the benefits of vaccinating children outweigh the risks and that the higher circulating levels of Covid are the more the benefits outweigh the risk this is an odd position to take.

Children are less at risk than adults but the risk isn’t zero. Deliberately creating a policy that leave the most children possible hospitalised with Covid, pims-c or long term health issue seems a little unwise.

You are promoting giving children vaccines they do not need.

Remember the survival rate is 98+% for adults - even more for children. The hospitals are not full of children with covid, flu - yes - covid no.

The only reason adults want kids vaccinated is to protect other adults. That is still not a good enough reason when you can pick up covid - in the pub, in Tesco, on transport, in the shopping mall ect.

I have had both vaccines, I had them to protect the vulnerable clients I come in to contact with each day. However I will never agree to my children having a vaccine they DO NOT NEED in order to protect other adults who have most likely had both vaccines and a booster.

The risk isn't zero but its pretty close to it as you can get 2 in a million or 25 in 12 million and those where children that had already serious underlying illness and died with covid.

By all means get your own kids vaxxed but don't start pushing for other people to get their kids done.

@MauraandLaura
The hospitals are full. That’s the point. I need to know that when my children, my family - other children, other families - need hospital care they can get adequate treatment.

Who are you to say that children don’t need vaccines? The vast majority of the best qualified medical professionals worldwide are asserting that it’s the best thing to do. So I’ll do it, and I don’t want to be swayed by unqualified hearsay - and frankly - ill informed posters on social media.
If being vaccinated controls the spread of the infection, and means hospitals can cope and provide good care then it’s the best thing to do. I doubt my daughter would get very ill if she caught Covid, but it’s about the other people she infects.

[quote Covidworries]@bumbleymummy

Havingnthe virus doesnt make you immune.
Im reading lots of people sayung they are positive again after having virus in 2020 early 2021.
Have you any evidence that the virus ensure immunity?

Its quite a dangerous thing to post as somepeople may not think to test next time thye get symptoms 8f they are ked to believe they are now immune[/quote]
I am not sure if any one has said that having the virus previously means you will be immune going forward but they have known for some time that people who have had the virus faired better than those who had the vaccine then contracted the virus. And our natural antibodies were more likely to fight of variants than the standard vaccine.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02795-x

I’ve got no idea why I’ve started reading these Covid posts. It’s infuriating. @ollyollyoxenfree - you actually sound like you know what you are talking about. But my god - the arrogance of some of the posters on here! I can’t believe that people are just so busy blaming governments around the world, thinking there is some sort of big agenda/conspiracy - and simply cannot address that they themselves are a major part of the problem - if not THE problem.

[quote SpringKit]@MauraandLaura
The hospitals are full. That’s the point. I need to know that when my children, my family - other children, other families - need hospital care they can get adequate treatment.

Who are you to say that children don’t need vaccines? The vast majority of the best qualified medical professionals worldwide are asserting that it’s the best thing to do. So I’ll do it, and I don’t want to be swayed by unqualified hearsay - and frankly - ill informed posters on social media.
If being vaccinated controls the spread of the infection, and means hospitals can cope and provide good care then it’s the best thing to do. I doubt my daughter would get very ill if she caught Covid, but it’s about the other people she infects.[/quote]
Which they are every single year year on year we have articles stating 'the NHS has 12 hours left before it collapses'

They never callapsed last year when we were at our worst. And I am sorry I do not believe it will this year either - especially with such a fantastic take up of the vaccine - 80% of the population - that alone is incredible.

Who are you to say that children don’t need vaccines?

Well they do, quite a few actually - all the regular childhood ones and especially the flu vaccine - because flu really does make children die and get poorly. But not the covid vaccine I will go of scientific evidence on that and not the usual knee jerk scare mongering.

If being vaccinated controls the spread of the infection, and means hospitals can cope and provide good care then it’s the best thing to do

I am sorry to burst your bubble but being being vaccinated doesn't stop the spread of the virus. It might reduce it slightly but infected vaccinated people will still be breathing millions of those virus nasties.

Its your choice - just like its my choice not too.

"9+ months in the majority. Some studies have shown up to 12."

My sister has had it twice in 12 months. Definitely had antibodies 9 months ago. 2nd time was 3 weeks after the booster but probably because of the booster had no symptoms and was only picked up through contact testing.

@MauraandLaura

I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but being vaccinated DOES control the spread of the virus. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/amp/

@Covidworries

There are plenty of studies, yes. Please note that I said ‘majority’, not all. There are no guarantees that people are protected against infection for months after infection, just like there are no guarantees that people are protected against infection after vaccination. The ONS does report that reinfection is rare though and repeat cases are usually milder:

“ The estimated number of reinfections in the UK between July 2020 and September 2021, is low overall (11.8 per 100,000 participant days at risk), and reinfections more likely to cause serious illness are even lower (5.5 per 100,000 participant days at risk).”

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveycharacteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19uk/6october2021

immunity after infection:

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/226713/covid-19-antibodies-persist-least-nine-months/

(Preprint) www.news-medical.net/news/20211012/How-long-does-natural-immunity-produced-by-SARS-CoV-2-infection-last.aspx

Also,
www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00676-9/fulltext

There are more - I’ve linked to the hiqa document several times because it is a good summary and led to hiqa recommending that NPHET extend presumptive immunity from 6 to 9 months after infection.

Seems to me that we urgently need comprehensive and solid data on covid immunity longeveity in both vacinated and unvaccinated populations. We also need solid data on covid reinfection rates and honest and transparent data on transmission in vaccinated populations.

It makes no sense to talk about "unvaccinated people" as though they are all covid naive. There are not just 2 groups of people in the world when it comes to covid; vaccinated and unvaccinated (and public health policy should reflect that).

Huge numbers of unvaccinated people are covid recovered, unknown numbers seem to be resistant to covid19 (perhaps through cross immunity with another coronavirus).

We should be less focused on "vaccinated versus unvaccinated" as a status and more focused on "immune and or not vulnerable versus vulnerable and or not immune".

And we also need data on disease severity in breakthrough cases and in reinfected cases.

[quote SpringKit]@MauraandLaura

I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but being vaccinated DOES control the spread of the virus. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/amp/[/quote]
Well.. that link doesnt work by the way

but here is one that does --

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00450-z

''In preliminary work, one team observed a significant drop in viral load in a small number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the two to four weeks after receiving their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, compared with those who caught the virus in the first two weeks after the injection2. “The data is certainly intriguing and suggestive that vaccination may reduce the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases, even if it does not prevent infection altogether,” says Virginia Pitzer, an infectious-diseases modeller at Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Connecticut. The Oxford–AstraZeneca trial also observed a larger reduction in viral load in a small group of vaccinated participants than in the unvaccinated group.

But whether these observed reductions in viral load are sufficient to make someone less infectious in real life is not yet clear, say researchers''

So whilst I agree it seems that it does reduce infectioness - it doesnt halt it all together. Even if your vaccined up to the hilt you can ^still pass there infection on. This is why mandatory vaccination is unfair.

I mean we could swop articles all day but we will both choose to believe with what aligns with how we feel about all this.

You want kids to be vaccinated so you lean towards the pro vaccination articles/studies

I don't want my kids to be vaccinated so I will naturally lean towards the articles/studies that reflect that its unnecessary for healthy children.