Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Boys3 Thank you as ever.

Sorry jangly hastily written I meant in the context of it being discovered in sa.

Ah OK November!

Good thread on S gene target failure (AKA dropout), which is now rising in the UK. There seems to be uncertainty about precisely how many labs have the ability to do these tests - at best 50%. Or maybe the confusion is whether that’s number of labs or percentage of swabs?

Also includes a link to 💩 data from an area of California, indicating a problem there.

twitter.com/_nickdavies/status/1466204363110633476?s=21

www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-south-african-researchers-identified-the-omicron-variant-of-covid

• interview with Tulio de Oliveira, SA Director or Epidemiology

(also, why we cannot and must not blame Africa in any way, shape or form)

@JanglyBeads

www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-south-african-researchers-identified-the-omicron-variant-of-covid

• interview with Tulio de Oliveira, SA Director or Epidemiology

(also, why we cannot and must not blame Africa in any way, shape or form)

I agree and thought the same re Alpha.

I know we’ve moved onto a very pressing issue but this is a good round up of what’s going on in Europe - delta cases and restrictions

www.euronews.com/2021/12/01/covid-19-spike-felt-across-europe-as-vaccination-remains-stagnant

(Belgium)
The surge exceeded “the most pessimistic curves” drawn last week by experts, he said in a statement

They clearly need the UK modellers in, they always end up with optimistic reality compared to the models.

The restrictions and lockdowns in Germany and Austria certainly appear to have turned the curves there - so lockdown still work and still adhered to it seems. Czech republic reporting higher cases across the whole country than even Torridge, and with high positivity, it seems a bit strange to me that we see every region topping out at rates roughly that whole countries are meeting now.

optimistic reality compared to the models.

Weren't we told at one point that 20k deaths would be a good outcome?

Thanks @JanglyBeads for those Twitter links yesterday I have just started using Twitter so that was helpful.

👍

Come to think of it, we were also told - by several "experts" - that the pandemic was over in July 2020.

20k “best case” scenario quoted by Chris Whitty back in spring 2020 was based on Imperial modelling and only applied to the first wave. The worst case, as we remember, was 500k.

As it turned out, Imperial hugely underestimated the extent of Covid spread in the UK in early March (which is understandable - the available data was very limited). Their modelled peak was estimated at 100k cases a day. Later models (that took account of antibody testing results) revised the number up to 600-650k. Both the spike and the subsequent drop were very steep but, as a result, the number of “baked-in deaths” during the first wave turned out much higher than 20k.

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/blog/new-nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19-3/

Currently MRC-BSU models appear more accurate that those produced by SAGE advisors (Warwick, LSHTM, Imperial). None are perfect, though.

larger week on week increase again, so we do have an increase over the last couple of days having had R go back to right around 1 or under after post Half Term's increase - The half term increase does make sense due to communities mixing differently. But what's this return?

More testing due to Omicron raising the profile?
Omicron itself spreading more?
Weather changes due to Arwen (as opposed to delays, which I think Boys data did suggest not with the increases in the south east)
Something else?

Testing is up another 18% So positivity rate is still falling, so I'm inclining towards the first option - but then I'm obviously "optimistic" in my conclusions generally here.

Infections seem to be spiralling in SA so could be Omicron plus schools...

We continue to have a lot of staff off and increasing pupil numbers.

Does anyone think they will implement full plan B soon?

I think the regional picture is very mixed.

Looks like London is finally seeing the impact of the “back to school” wave. SE London boroughs (Lewisham, Greenwich, Bexley, Bromley, etc) have reported unusually high numbers for Mon-Tue this week (based on date of specimen). I assume it is too early for Omicron so my guess is it must be school cases.

My DD’s school in one of those boroughs has been pretty much Covid-free but I have come to terms it is a matter of “when” not “if”.

If hospitalisations and bed use continue to fall Boris can avoid implementing plan B fully. Once they start to rise it's another matter. Until then it will be boosters all the way. Not convinced it's possible to get enough boosters into arms pre Christmas to avoid a post Christmas rise.

Still some people are sensibly cancelling or down scaling office parties and other social contact and if mask wearing increases maybe it will work. Also we already have 10 million who have been infected, have to wait and see if the latest variant gets to them - if it does we might be back in lockdown territory post Christmas because Boris will dither and delay again.

NE&Y, NW and Midlands, on the other hand, appear relatively flat.

@weddingguesttbc

Does anyone think they will implement full plan B soon?

I've got Christmas Eve in the work sweepstake and I think I'm in with a chance.

Booster appointments suddenly available locally, so they have really ramped up. Opened up a couple of local pharmacies who were involved in the first round earlier this year, and also a local school opening up over the weekend to do walk-ins, who also did vax over the summer, so not starting from scratch as it were, these now in addition to the single GP service who have been boosting alone up to now.

I like this graph - I am being optimistic (extremely) and hoping we might get a seven day reduction? What are the chances...... answers on a postcard.

Of course not likely, but to respond to the Plan B question - Cases are not really the issue. I don't think anything will be implemented until such time as impacts are seen in hospital numbers. The slogan continues to be "protect the nhs", if we don't see increasing numbers of hospitalisations and deaths, then I don't think the narrative can change.

@sirfredfredgeorge

larger week on week increase again, so we do have an increase over the last couple of days having had R go back to right around 1 or under after post Half Term's increase - The half term increase does make sense due to communities mixing differently. But what's this return?

More testing due to Omicron raising the profile?
Omicron itself spreading more?
Weather changes due to Arwen (as opposed to delays, which I think Boys data did suggest not with the increases in the south east)
Something else?

Testing is up another 18% So positivity rate is still falling, so I'm inclining towards the first option - but then I'm obviously "optimistic" in my conclusions generally here.

Wouldn’t we get a signal re omicron?

If not PCR then sequencing - not sure what lag is on this

Has anyone read anything on previous infection not being protective with Omicron they can link?

I thought I heard a SA scientist/medic say something like that on the news just now with only half an ear.

I agree with BigWoolly it’s hospitalisation that will trigger it

Do MPs have to vote on it does anyone know?

BigWoollyJumpers No chance of a reduction I'm afraid, cases gone up too much in the days after that graph.

PrincessNutNuts There really isn't conclusive evidence in any direction, but like vaccine protection, past infection is also not completely protective to infection, but the amount of protection is completely unknown on both.

Picking up on Winter’s point. Taking cases just from Monday, an extra 10,500 or so cases in England compared with the same point last week.

Flat, or to be accurate marginal falls in North East and Yorks and Humber, flat with single digit case increase in North West.

Moderate, 4.2% and 4.8%, increase in East and West Mids.

Then

East up 15.3%

South East up 21.5%

South west up 17.2%

inner Lindon up 37.5%

outer London up 24.8%

London overall region up 29.4%

Age breakdown for these most recent days down to regional level is available through the male and female case metrics on the dashboard, with the archive function, allowing equivalent point last week to be seen. if anyone is so inclined