More people in hospital now are vaccinated than unvaccinated?

[PeppaNeedsToBeWrappedInBacon]

Can someone give me some stats behind this?

Someone has just told me that more vaccinated people are being hospitalised with covid than unvaccinated at the moment.

I’m only after facts, no opinions. Keep it unbiased. I’ve just tried to google this myself but between finding a reliable article, my screaming 2 year old and my pregnancy brain fog(it just plain exhaustion) - I can’t find much about this?

Is it true, if it’s true does this mean the vaccine isn’t working? I’m fully vaccinated.. just curious as it’s being debated on a local article at the moment.

@nukeitfromorbit

The higher the rate of vaccination is in a population the more likely that there will be more vaccinated than non vaccinated people ending up in hospital purely because there less non vaccinated around to be infected or admitted.

i.e. if every single person in the UK was vaccinated then 100% of breakthrough infections would be in vaccinated people which is not the same as saying the vaccine doesn't work.

If you want a better idea of vaccine effectiveness have a look at the latest ONS figures which show that once the data is adjusted by age and underlying medical condition you are 32 x more likely to die of Covid if you are unvaccinated than if you have a vaccine.

Vaccines work the data is refutable.

If it's the unvaccinated that are getting seriously ill and are 32x more likely to die then why do the double jabbed need a booster/3rd jab

If it's the unvaccinated that are getting seriously ill and are 32x more likely to die then why do the double jabbed need a booster/3rd jab

Over time that protection wanes, and the people most likely to have the greatest degree of waning are those at most risk.

So will the triple jabbed require a jab every 12 weeks as immunity wanes, that's concerning

“Obviously the vax doesn’t work“

Oh bollocks. Of course it does. Extremely vulnerable people will die, obviously. As they do from most viruses and bacterial infections.

Don’t be an idiot.

@Whyevencare

So will the triple jabbed require a jab every 12 weeks as immunity wanes, that's concerning

Where have you got twelve weeks from? Boosters are happening around six months.

We do a yearly vaccination of the most vulnerable to flu. That doesn’t cause much consternation. It’s pretty likely that’s the way Covid boosters will end up-yearly for the people at highest risk but everyone else will have acquired immunity from their vaccination and possibly infection.

I get all the reasoning here for why most of the people in hospital are now vaccinated.

But I thought the vaccinations were supposed to prevent serious illness and hospitalization. So how come nearly 10,000 people (mostly vaccinated) are now in hospital with Covid?

The vaccinations were at first meant to prevent spread - clearly that didn't work. Now they're not preventing hospitalization either.

The vaccinations were at first meant to prevent spread - clearly that didn't work. Now they're not preventing hospitalization either.

Looks at the comparison between pre vaccination and now. Far, far fewer people are being hospitalised now. The problem is we have a more contagious strain and we’ve accepted having high cases in the community.

More people are vaccinated than unvaccinated. Those who are vaccinated early are older/have underlying issues. So it makes sense to me. Also, I've read somewhere, if the breakthrough infection happens, there are always unvaccinated people involved. It makes sense to me too.
If everyone eligible is vaccinated, then the transmission will decrease. But that is not the case in England.
Look at the countries with better vaccination rate than England. Some countries are doing far better.

PurpleDaisies

The vaccinations were at first meant to prevent spread - clearly that didn't work. Now they're not preventing hospitalization either.”

Some people, the very elderly or medically frail, can die if they contract a cold virus, Covid/‘flu/pneumonia and many other common viruses, vaccinated or not.

That’s life. Is it really so hard to understand?

Nonetheless, many thousands of lives are being saved by the vaccines.

Don’t be obtuse.

Surely this is a lot to do with the “with/of” argument.

People are always going to die (sorry to state the obvious but there seems to be a contingent of people who seem to think that no death should occur ever). While we are obsessively testing every person repeatedly, there will always be positive test results.

I also wonder if, as treatments have improved hospitals are now admitting less severely ill people than they did earlier in the pandemic?

I’d be interested to know, if there are any clinicians on the thread, whether you now have lower threshold for admittance? I’ve wondered about it for a while.

@Sean2001

I get all the reasoning here for why most of the people in hospital are now vaccinated.

But I thought the vaccinations were supposed to prevent serious illness and hospitalization. So how come nearly 10,000 people (mostly vaccinated) are now in hospital with Covid?

The vaccinations were at first meant to prevent spread - clearly that didn't work. Now they're not preventing hospitalization either.

Change the word ‘prevent’ and replace with ‘reduce’ and both statements are right

People still get hospitalised and also die even though they have had one, two or three doses of the vaccine. But they are also more likely to not get infected, or to resist infection and not require hospitalisation. Those that are hospitalised are more likely to recover and to recover more quickly
The elderly are more likely to be worse off - not just because they have missed their booster etc, but due to their greater vulnerability.
But that is not to say the elderly are more likely to contract an infection. In the current ONS statistics the rate of infection among the elderly is less than among the young, but if infected then hospitalisation is at a higher rate

www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1100new/prototype/wrapper/index.html#hospitalisations

@LongBeanTime I have no idea what your comment means. This is the article. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59191506.amp that says:

"We're still seeing deaths in mainly the unvaccinated population... but increasingly, because of immune waning effects, there are deaths in the vaccinated group as well”.

The higher risk people will be those with waning immunity and high vulnerability so people like me who are waiting for a booster jab due to a serious health condition and it’s been almost 6 months since my 2nd dose so immunity will be waning.

@FreshFreesias

Obviously the vax doesn’t work

Incredible level of stupidity here

For example, between the week beginning Monday 16 August 2021 and the week ending Sunday 12 September, the rate of hospital admissions of over 80s was 50.5 per 100 000 in the fully vaccinated and 143.9 per 100 000 in the unvaccinated, while deaths were 45.5 and 145.4 per 100 000, respectively.

Is this saying more over 80s are dying from covid than are being hospitalised by it? And is this per 100000 of the unvaxxed over 80s? I thought the government said they’ve pretty much vaccinated all over 80s. Are they including non-boostered as unvaxxed?

In fact, quite from ONS:
“The Over 80s Vaccines Insights study data show that 99.8% of people aged 80 years and over self-reported that they had been offered a COVID-19 vaccination, of which 99% had received at least one dose and 15% had received two or more doses.”

So presumably most of the 145.4 per 100000 over 80s were at least partially vaxxed.

More people are vaccinated than not. Proportionally unvaccinated are at higher risk of hospitalisation and death.

Vaccine immunity wanes after a period of time. This isn't anything new or unusual. It happens with other vaccines for different diseases too.

It might also be helpful to have a vaccine breakdown for the double jabbed in hospital. Which vaccine - AZ, Pfizer, or Moderna.

@OrganicMooMoo

In fact, quite from ONS: “The Over 80s Vaccines Insights study data show that 99.8% of people aged 80 years and over self-reported that they had been offered a COVID-19 vaccination, of which 99% had received at least one dose and 15% had received two or more doses.”

So presumably most of the 145.4 per 100000 over 80s were at least partially vaxxed.

One dose is much lower efficacy than two.

Are we using monoclonal antibody treatment in the UK?

One dose is much lower efficacy than two.

I’m not arguing that. But it would be more helpful if they gave figures for truly unvaxxed vs partially vaxxed vs fully vaxxed so that we could see clearly the efficacy of one dose compared to none or one dose compared to two. Now even double vaxxed will be lumped in with “unvaxxed” and only triple vaxxed will be counted as vaccinated for the purpose of hospitalisation and death statistics. It’s bad science and meaningless statistics.

There was something on the on R4 a few months ago.

The problem apparently is that nobody can accurately say what the population of the UK is. People die and are born every day, people come here illegally and disappear. Workers from the EU have gone home and haven't returned etc.

So comparing an accurate number of those that have been vaccinated against a best guess of the population is going to give a percentage with a huge tolerance.

@TinaYouFatLard

Surely this is a lot to do with the “with/of” argument.

People are always going to die (sorry to state the obvious but there seems to be a contingent of people who seem to think that no death should occur ever). While we are obsessively testing every person repeatedly, there will always be positive test results.

They won't test positive if they don't have Covid.

The old trope about a) with/of Covid has been debunked over and over. b) if you look at % of positive cases X tests carried out rather than simple raw numbers, you'll see the UK has one of the (currently) highest positivity rates in Europe. That would be the same, because it's a % whether 10, 100, 1000 or the entire population were tested.

@MrsSkylerWhite

PurpleDaisies

The vaccinations were at first meant to prevent spread - clearly that didn't work. Now they're not preventing hospitalization either.”

Some people, the very elderly or medically frail, can die if they contract a cold virus, Covid/‘flu/pneumonia and many other common viruses, vaccinated or not.

That’s life. Is it really so hard to understand?

Nonetheless, many thousands of lives are being saved by the vaccines.

Don’t be obtuse.

PurpleDaisies is quoting the obtuse person. That's why the first paragraph is bolded. PD is thankfully one of the least obtuse people posting about Covid and many would do well to take on board what she says.

@OrganicMooMoo

In fact, quite from ONS: “The Over 80s Vaccines Insights study data show that 99.8% of people aged 80 years and over self-reported that they had been offered a COVID-19 vaccination, of which 99% had received at least one dose and 15% had received two or more doses.”

So presumably most of the 145.4 per 100000 over 80s were at least partially vaxxed.

That 15% for double vaccination must be a typo - it should be far far higher.

@chocolateorangeinhaler

There was something on the on R4 a few months ago.

The problem apparently is that nobody can accurately say what the population of the UK is. People die and are born every day, people come here illegally and disappear. Workers from the EU have gone home and haven't returned etc.

So comparing an accurate number of those that have been vaccinated against a best guess of the population is going to give a percentage with a huge tolerance.

The uncertainty in the population size isn't enormous. The problem is that because we do know exactly how many people have been vaccinated all the uncertainty is landed on the quite small unvaccinated side which is very unbalanced.

So imagine there are actually a million forty year olds in the country. We know that we've vaccinated 900,000 forty year olds because we've counted every vaccination.

The ONS survey from 2011, adjusted for ageing and deaths, and with some guesses at immigration and emigration, estimates that there are 950,000 forty year olds. Ie it's 5% too low.

The NIMS figures that the NHS/PHE uses, which are based on GP records and notorious for double counting, estimate that there are 1,100,000 forty year olds in the population. It's 10% too high.

So in order to estimate the number of unvaccinated people we subtract the known number of vaccinated people (900,000) from the estimated total population. If you use the ONS estimate that gives you 50,000. If you use the NIMS estimate that gives you 200,000. Suddenly quite small inaccuracies in population estimate have turned into your estimate for the unvaccinated population, and hence the unvaccinated case rate, varying by a factor of 400%.