Are people dying of Covid, or with Covid?

[lightand]

As they are different things.

Does anyone actually know?

There will always be people dying with Covid, as the elderly, especially, die, and some of them, like the rest of us, will always die whilst having Covid.

So could 180 per day per winter be an average number going forward, forever now? [and the NHS should well be into the process of gearing up for that?]

@lightand

Dying ‘with covid’ obviously means there’s a very good chance that having covid has sped up their death,..

Does it though?

Covid is little more than a cold for some people, and some are asyptomatic.

Well yes ,and my son had COVID a few months ago ,bit of sire throat ,felt rough for a day or two absolutely fine within 48 hrs ,but he's a young healthy fourteen year old ,the virus affects different people different ways ,it doesn't mean that it can't be a cause of death

@MsWarrensProfession

Here you go OP. This is the Covid 19 Actuaries response group weekly update, detailing excess deaths for the current week vs average age-adjusted death rates comparing with deaths registered on the certificate as having Covid 19 as a cause. Their website contains fuller details of calculation method if you're interested. www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20summary%20pandemic%20monitor%20Week%2040%202021%20v01%202021-10-19.pdf

Yes we know. If you want to do a quick and dirty double you can do what I've done and check the weekly ONS recorded deaths against 5 year weekly averages and see the impact of the various waves of the pandemic on the various age groups.

TDLR: yes Covid 19 is currently causing a visible level of excess deaths of people before their time, which is roughly similar to the number of deaths reported by PHE.

You're welcome, and I'm sure you'll be pleased to know that the work you wanted done is indeed being done carefully by knowledgable and impartial professionals.

That's a good link, thanks. Do you know if there's a similar report for Scotland?

@TheReluctantPhoenix

However, if you are 88, you do need to die if something. I don’t think recognition of mortality makes one blasé.

Everybody dies of something. No-one would excuse these deaths if the main target of the virus was pre-school children, or men between 15 and 23, for example.

They were going to die anyway?

I didn't read the OP as goady. Every country around the world appears to be counting Covid cases in a different way and it's a valid point to query whether "death within 28 days of a positive test" is the right way to be counting. Because that would include people who are asymptomatic then die three weeks later in a car crash. I am not a statistics expert, but would imagine however you go about counting things there are going to be anomalies. Like the US politician Colin Powell - widely reported as having died due to Covid complications which may be the case, but the guy was 84 and had multiple myeloma (blood cancer) and Parkinson's.

I also think that whenever anyone posts about elderly people dying, people who have recently lost a relative take it as a personal slight. It is not offensive to point out that we are ALL going to die one day. That the average life expectancy in the UK is about 82 and so if you're 85+ you have something like a 1 in 6 or 7 chance of dying each year. Even without Covid. Yes it's sad for the family members but it's not unexpected to die at the age of 88 or 94 or 99, is it?

People who are very elderly are vulnerable to loads of different illnesses which is why we vaccinate them against flu and give them free prescriptions. Because they are more likely to get ill, and can't fight off illnesses in the same way as a younger person.

It has always been hard to record death. Eg I bought 40 death certs for 40 great aunts and uncles and many have two causes of death even back in the old days.

It is certainly worth keeping stats on whether covid killed someone or they just happened to have it at the time as that difference is so important. My doctor father used to call pneumonia and flu as the old person's friend as they see you off in a gentler way than some other diseases.

@MsWarrensProfession

This is why we use three methods of calculating Covid deaths hamstersarse

Deaths within 28 days of a positive test: very fast but incomplete and may over-count in some cases

Deaths with Covid entered on the death certificate by the attending doctor. Slower, more detailed, may overcount and undercount in specific cases.

Excess deaths vs the average for the week in question. Slower, less detailed but internationally comparable and will show where the first two methods are systematically over or under counting.

Comparing all three suggests that methods 1 and 2 seriously undercounted Covid deaths in the first wave of the pandemic and are now roughly accurate.

Also excess deaths is comparing this year's deaths to the average of the previous 5 years.

So deaths in 2021 will be the average of the previous 5, which includes 2020. So the "expected deaths" over March/April 2021 is higher than over March/April 2020.

Interestingly if you look at age range 25-49, which is not considered a particular risk in general, there were excess deaths in that age category in England in 68 out of 80 from April through to now.
I wouldn't have expected that as deaths from accidents were well down last year.

@DumplingsAndStew,

Although all deaths are sad, they are not equal.

The loss of a few months of low quality life is not the same as the loss of many years of happy and healthy life.

Very few parents, let alone grand parents, would want to outlive their children.

Every country around the world appears to be counting Covid cases in a different way and it's a valid point to query whether "death within 28 days of a positive test" is the right way to be counting.

The car crash analogy is a fairly poor one-approximately 1700 people died in a rti in 2019. I would expect it to be fewer in 2020 because of fewer cars on the road. Even assuming that every one of them had just had a positive test then that doesn't make a dint in the statistics.

But dying of covid/dying with covid does come across as trying to minimise it. It's the case in lots of deaths that there is more than one cause. Remove one and they might not have died at that moment.

Would you object to saying someone "died of cancer"? Often they didn't die of cancer: they died of pneumonia (because they were susceptible because they had cancer), or organ failure (due to having cancer) or a generally easily fought off illness (because their immune system was broken by chemo) etc.
My friend died of pneumonia. She wouldn't have died of pneumonia if she hadn't had cancer. I would say that she died of cancer, wouldn't you?
My godson died from pneumonia. He wouldn't have died from pneumonia is he hadn't been brain damaged due to stopping breathing shortly after birth. I'd probably say he died of pneumonia,

Neither of them would have died from pneumonia if they hadn't had other complications.

It's not as simple as "they'd have died anyway".

It's not as simple as "they'd have died anyway".

No it isn't, but very often they would have died of something soon.

I mentioned my dad earlier. If the pneumonia which ultimately killed him in November hadn't, he would almost certainly died in the flu epidemic that winter. Or something else. Because he had Alzheimer's, because he was very frail, and at the end of his life.

My post after this one will include a copy and paste from this link, from the UK Gov itself

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

I've said this right from the start...are people dying FROM it, or WITH it? Because there's a very big difference.

If they're dying with Covid then it won't make a different to the death rate will it.

If they're dying of Covid there will be excess deaths.

Except that excess deaths could be caused by the effects of Covid on society, e.g. difficulty in getting cancer referrals or help for mental health, rather than by the virus itself.

@x2boys

Why do people keep starting threads asking the same thing?

To spread the conspiracy theory that covid isn't really a problem.

Sick of reading this shit.

@Whywonttheyletmeusemyusername

I've said this right from the start...are people dying FROM it, or WITH it? Because there's a very big difference.

Indeed.

This is from the link posted, and there is another part I want to copy and paste from it as well.

We classify deaths as due to COVID-19 when it is the underlying cause of death, while deaths “involving COVID-19” refer to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, but not necessarily as an underlying cause.

The 820 figure and indeed throughout I think, that the Gov post as headlines, is "involving COVID-19", as made clear on the above link.

They ought to publisise the underlying cause of death figure instead. Simple thing to do as they obviously have the figures to hand.

Also, on another part of the link I will copy and paste, it says the figure includes non-residents. Cant say I understand why that would be?

So, I'm curious. As a Christian, as you say, how do you interpret "Love thy neighbour as thyself'?

Unless they get in your way? Unless they are older than you?

to spread the conspiracy theory that covid isn't really a problem

Of course Covid is a problem. But if the real Covid death figure was posted as being, say for this, week, 22 instead of 180, that changes a lot of things.
Government policy if nothing else.
People's fears, mental health, schooling, I could go on and on and on...

^Of all deaths registered in the week to 8 October, 820 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19), 154 fewer than the previous week (a 15.8% decrease). Deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for around 1 in 15 deaths (6.6%).

UK total deaths include non-residents^

is the other bit I wanted to copy and paste from the government link

@lightand

to spread the conspiracy theory that covid isn't really a problem

Of course Covid is a problem. But if the real Covid death figure was posted as being, say for this, week, 22 instead of 180, that changes a lot of things.
Government policy if nothing else.
People's fears, mental health, schooling, I could go on and on and on...

It would make no sense to massivliy inflate the covid deaths ,what exactly would the government gain from that?

@lightand

to spread the conspiracy theory that covid isn't really a problem

Of course Covid is a problem. But if the real Covid death figure was posted as being, say for this, week, 22 instead of 180, that changes a lot of things.
Government policy if nothing else.
People's fears, mental health, schooling, I could go on and on and on...

You do realise that 934 people have died of covid this week? Not 20?

Deaths within 60 days would be higher than that.

@Whywonttheyletmeusemyusername

I've said this right from the start...are people dying FROM it, or WITH it? Because there's a very big difference.

They are dying of it. Hope that helps.

Some are dying of it. Some are dying with it.

OP

Mrswarren has answered, or gone a long way to answering, your question. Why have you ignored her?

@Lilifer

Some are dying of it. Some are dying with it.

Well, 90% are dying of it on the Part 1 of the death certificate, and an additional 20% are dying diagnosed with covid, but after 28 days, so that is a bit disingenuous.

The figures are not an underestimate, which is the point surely?

Well technically I guess a lot are dying from heart failure, organ failure, massive stroke caused by the clotting nature of Covid etc. But the point is that in many cases, none of these things would have happened if they didn't have COVID.

@lightand

Dying ‘with covid’ obviously means there’s a very good chance that having covid has sped up their death,..

Does it though?

Covid is little more than a cold for some people, and some are asyptomatic.

So now your denying it can cause ill people to die quicker? Makes no sense. Yes for some people it’s very mild, and for some it’s severe.