Are people dying of Covid, or with Covid?

[lightand]

As they are different things.

Does anyone actually know?

There will always be people dying with Covid, as the elderly, especially, die, and some of them, like the rest of us, will always die whilst having Covid.

So could 180 per day per winter be an average number going forward, forever now? [and the NHS should well be into the process of gearing up for that?]

@Hotcoffee10

I was talking about lockdowns and the economic social and educational impact more broadly not just masks. Masks do impact on poor people more though. People living in poverty are more likely to have chronic respiratory disease, more likely to have been victims of abuse, which can make mask wearing difficult. Also people in poor areas are much less likely to even wear the bloody things than middle class people in the first place, and probably get stigmatised for not doing so. *@Walkaround* that kind of assumes pandemic control measures reduced infections and deaths though doesn’t it. If they didn’t and just let rich get richer and our children get a huge tax burden to pay for.

No, you were specifically arguing that masks make no difference to transmission.

As I've repeatedly stated they do and therefore have a role in minimising the risk of more stringent restrictions like lockdown and school closures which definately disproportinately impact these groups.

I think now trying to argue that masks adversely effect these groups in the same way lockdown policies do, particuarly when a self-exemption policy exists so no-one has to wear one, is a bit of a reach

Just to be clear about masks I think in a community setting they make no difference to transmission patterns.
I also think they have negative impacts which fall most heavily on poorer people but it was you who brought it up. There are exceptions but do you think it is always comfortable for people to be unmasked when the tone of the discussion is as it is?

@Hotcoffee10

Just to be clear about masks I think in a community setting they make no difference to transmission patterns. I also think they have negative impacts which fall most heavily on poorer people but it was you who brought it up. There are exceptions but do you think it is always comfortable for people to be unmasked when the tone of the discussion is as it is?

So be clear you're trying to argue that because there is a possibility of stigma towards people not wearing masks, this is a reason that no-one should wear one?

And you don't think it's relevant that masks reduce transmission, which reduces the risk of more stringent policies like school & hospitality closures and disruption to support services, which will disproportionately impact the groups you're advocating for?

If stigma towards people not wearing masks is a huge issue, then the solution needs to be to minimise the risk of this happening, not using it as argument that no-one should wear a mask.

Reminds me of the old argument that no teenager should be allowed to be vaccinated, in the hypothetical case that it causes discrimination for those who parents don't want them to have it.

@Hotcoffee10 - no need to assume, as there is plenty of proof from around the world that control measures work to reduce infection and death. The fact that they work less well in countries which lack the courage of any conviction and swing wildly between letting things rip, panicking and closing things down, is pretty bloody predictable. Brazil is a good demonstration that sticking rigidly to a maximum deaths approach just maximises deaths, without any evident economic, social, political, health or other long term advantage to date.

No we shouldn’t mandate them because they don’t work in a community setting.

And we shouldn’t mandate wearing them just in case they might work because they have significant downsides for society. Children should not be masked in schools. It affects their learning and social development. I wear a mask all day for work and it is uncomfortable and affects my communication significantly especially with people who have hearing problems or do not have English as a first language.

@Hotcoffee10

No we shouldn’t mandate them because they don’t work in a community setting.

And we shouldn’t mandate wearing them just in case they might work because they have significant downsides for society. Children should not be masked in schools. It affects their learning and social development. I wear a mask all day for work and it is uncomfortable and affects my communication significantly especially with people who have hearing problems or do not have English as a first language.

At no point did I suggest mandatory masks or that children should wear them

It's your repeated false claims that they don't make a difference to transmission that is the issue with your posts.

I'd suggest you don't speak for those who don't have english as a first language or are hearing impaired, and use them as yet another convulted argument against masks.

Would be far quicker to just admit you're anti COVID supression policies in general rather than wheeling out weaker and weaker rationales against people who are able to wearing them.

Nobody knows what’s going on in China. There are significant differences in population ages/obesity rates and vulnerability to coronavirus that mean death rates are different between countries.
I was told off for comparing Scotland and England to suggest mask mandates are ineffective so don’t think you can compare UK and South Korea for death rates!?
Difficult to get a clear picture of exactly what’s going on in Brazil. NZ/Aus tried and failed to keep the virus out. What makes you think restrictions in the UK lowered the death rate? Cases had already peaked prior to both lockdowns and we now know most of the population will be exposed to Covid at some point.

FFS I am telling you about my direct experience speaking to people who have hearing problems or don’t speak English as a first language while wearing a mask. I’m speaking for me is that okay with you?

And I am in Scotland where masks are mandated including for older children in schools. If that is not what you are advocating I may have misunderstood but I oppose this.

I don’t believe they work in a community setting, obviously we disagree on this that’s fine but stop trying to twist everything I say.

@Hotcoffee10 - your evidence of cases already having peaked being they always went down again after lockdown? Clearly the UK was astonishingly talented at always timing its lockdowns to be at the exact point cases were about to come down again regardless. And how weird that lockdowns reduced the incidence of other viruses, but made no difference to covid whatsoever.

Oh, and of course, we can’t get a clear picture of what is going on in Brazil, but we can clearly see that covid rates were on their way down already when lockdowns were introduced here. Because it’s all so incredibly clear when it suits us.

Quite a bit out there, have a look.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-second-wave-appears-to-have-peaked-before-lockdown

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/biom.13462

Yes we do know a lot more about Covid data here than Brazil and China.

[quote Hotcoffee10]Quite a bit out there, have a look.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-second-wave-appears-to-have-peaked-before-lockdown

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/biom.13462[/quote]
Have you read & critically assessed the manuscript you linked @Hotcoffee10? (methods & results being most important..)

@Hotcoffee10 - of course there is quite a bit out there. There is quite a bit of every shade of opinion out there, including yours. I just happen to think it’s absolute bollocks that no control measures work. The death toll in Norway compared to Denmark and Sweden (three comparable countries) indicates that control measures and various types of “lockdown” make a measurable difference. The consensus after the 1918-20 flu pandemic was also that control measures (including business closures and telling people to stay at home) had been effective and cities in the US which implemented them in a timely fashion had both had lower death tolls and recovered more quickly economically. Whether it is clear cut in this pandemic on the economic front certainly remains to be seen, but imvho, to claim that it has no effect on deaths from covid is just a stupid argument. Also, you appear to have linked to an article which was arguing that lockdowns had actually been working and that the need for a nationwide one rather than more localised ones was what was in question, not the need for any kind of lockdown whatsoever. So, make up your mind on what you actually mean, please, rather than making blanket statements about lockdowns and control measures in general, then linking to articles talking about the success of more localised lockdowns, and making claims that such blatant opinion pieces are fact, not just opinion.

Sorry, death toll in Sweden compared to the other Nordic countries!

(Apologies to Norway!)

Here is an interesting article comparing different approaches to control measures: www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95699-9

@Hotcoffee10

No we shouldn’t mandate them because they don’t work in a community setting.

And we shouldn’t mandate wearing them just in case they might work because they have significant downsides for society. Children should not be masked in schools. It affects their learning and social development. I wear a mask all day for work and it is uncomfortable and affects my communication significantly especially with people who have hearing problems or do not have English as a first language.

Aside from your lack of scientific awareness about the efficacy of wearing proper masks, correctly (proven by scientists the world over, so whether you "don't believe" or not, is irrelevant) you have an unpleasant view of "poor" people, despite (seeming) to be trying to champion their rights not to wear masks. Or do you genuinely believe they are all a) smokers b) can't speak English c) too thick to understand that masks help?

@Hotcoffee10

Nobody knows what’s going on in China. There are significant differences in population ages/obesity rates and vulnerability to coronavirus that mean death rates are different between countries. I was told off for comparing Scotland and England to suggest mask mandates are ineffective so don’t think you can compare UK and South Korea for death rates!? Difficult to get a clear picture of exactly what’s going on in Brazil. NZ/Aus tried and failed to keep the virus out. What makes you think restrictions in the UK lowered the death rate? Cases had already peaked prior to both lockdowns and we now know most of the population will be exposed to Covid at some point.

You need to compare like for like. It's very handy (and many posters on here have done so since March 2020) to cherry pick countries to compare the UK to.

Find a western, developed, fairly well off, European country, with cities with similar population density (and/or overall population) similar weather at the moment, and look at mask wearing cf positivity. Right now. This week.

Try France, Germany, Italy. Then come back and argue that masks don't work.

You’ve got it the wrong way round. Lockdowns amount to the most drastic public health measures ever implemented, a major encroachment on personal liberties. It’s not on their critics to provide evidence they don’t work it’s on their proponents, who clearly think they should remain a public health tool to be used as necessary, to prove that they do work, not just on reducing Covid cases but on improving health in society as a whole. Please link to the any published risk/benefit assessment of lockdown and pandemic control measures - as far as I’m aware there isn’t one.

Saying Brazil is a mess without any social or economic contextualising won’t cut it. Neither will the usual trope about Sweden and it’s “Nordic neighbours” how come it’s okay to compare countries sometimes but not other times. Sweden is more populous, urban and diverse than its Nordic neighbours. It could also be compared tithe UK and it’s excess death rate is lower despite very few restrictions. If you want to talk about the US Florida currently has no restrictions at all and appears to be doing better than many of its more restricted neighbours. I’ve got a busy day today so won’t be able to post again and respond to more of your supposed gotchas but I really would urge against banging the drum for more lockdowns, it does a huge amount of harm for little benefit.

So you're talking only about lockdown now?
OK. Italy.
QED.

@Hotcoffee10 - bullshit. It’s for anyone making any argument about how to react to a pandemic to provide evidence. I am neither arguing for or against lockdowns, as I do not claim to be a public health expert. I am merely pointing out you spout utter bollocks in your posts and when this is pointed out to you, you shift your argument rather than admit to it. You have provided zero evidence that lockdowns do not work, you have just constantly shifted the goalposts on what you mean by them not working.

Lockdowns are not advocated except in a situation where all normal measures have failed. When the health system is unable to provide care for say, appendicitis or hear attack. They clearly cause harm. I don't think anyone argues otherwise.

To anyone who may be falsely reassured by HotChoc saying if you are under 60 and fit but severely immunosuppressed (antibody blocker CD20) you may not be at very high risk, please follow your specialist's advice. These drugs are designed to block antibody production and the role of T cells
Is unclear. With high levels of covid, this group is at high risk as long as the virus is not dampened by measures used by other countries. The mortality and morbidity is high in this group, even at younger ages.

@Hotcoffee10

Hmmm. How do you know I have no epidemiology training? People are entitled to weigh up evidence for themselves we don’t always have to listen to top down pronouncements from so called experts who are only people and therefore subject to the same pressures and cognitive bias as all the rest of us. Open your eyes. Masks have negligible effect on community transmission. In hospitals maybe yes, not in the community Experts know this too I think but there is a very powerful media narrative about mask wearing that makes it difficult for people to present facts simply.

How do we know you have no training? Because you'd be dismissed from your post were it ever to come to light the rubbish you spout on here.

@hotcoffee10

As a deaf person, i want masks to be used.
Please dont use the term hearing impaired the community prefer Deaf.

If you want to support the deaf community use a clear mask. Campaigne against the injustices we have been facing far longer than thispandemic.
Hospitals not booking interpreters for appointments, resulting in deaf community life expectancy being lower than the rest of the UK.
Lackof approprate educatio resulting in deaf children recieving atleasta grade below hearing peers.
Families of deaf children being denied support to learn BSL often leftto source and fund themselves when this should be provided to all as standard.
Were you shouting about the injustice of no subtitles on channel 4 for over a month or that England covid briefings had no interpreter which disadvantaged us through lackof accessible information.

You dont get to use us as reason to promote your anti mask propoganda especially if you arent allies supporting the many many injustices that have been ongoing.