Will there be another lockdown

[Doublethecars]

In November time?

I’m surprised some still want these circuit break lockdowns given above and even more so that delta is now prevalent

The problem is that a certain cohort of people just want to feel that ‘something’ is being done.

They’ve lost all sight of whether measures are even effective. Or the long term cost to society. It’s all optics.

I think we are in a very interesting phase at the moment.
Covid has all been forgotten where I am weak confused instructions come out... , where basics like fresh air get lost, no one bother with lat flows.
I'd say its all over where I am.. Precautions are not being bothered with at all

@FallingRussetLeaves I'm not a "lockdown advocate" (what a horrid label?!) .
I'm asking how so many here are so certain of what they are not prepared to do to protect wider society whilst being so blissfully unaware of what others are going through. Of course lockdown suits nobody, my initial point (which everybody here has conveniently overlooked) is that many of us have been isolated long before Covid , ignored, completely invisible. Due to society catering to the majority, our government is a disgrace. This of course includes victims of DV etc...
Even today at a press conference on the issue of social care- not a single reference to unpaid carers. Not one.
But again this is more comfortable and convenient abd the truth really is it's because the powers that be know we do what we do because there really is no choice. Ever . Before or during Covid.

You’re all banging out some fury here claiming that other people are “calling for” or “in favour of” lockdowns like we’re personally the evil Covid fairies. Do carry on aiming your anger at me, but I don’t call for or impose any lockdowns and I doubt any of you are research epidemiologists, so the news is that neither of us has anything to do with what happens in the future or how to evaluate whether case rates will go up or whatever 😂

@irresistibleoverwhelm

It’s seriously daft and hyperbolic to call anyone a “lockdown advocate” or say they must enjoy wearing a mask.

Last year people were fuming because we didn’t have the half term “circuit breaker” and as a result we ended up in three months of lockdown after Christmas - basically because a huge number of people did as they pleased in the run-up to Christmas. And we ended up locked down afterwards as a result.

The situation is different now with vaccines, but the risk of healthcare collapse is still there. If things are really bad in December, how many people here are happy for their elderly mum to wait seven hours for an ambulance after a fall and die on a trolley in a corridor, because no-one would ever countenance wearing a mask again? Or their kid to die after a road traffic accident purely because no ITU beds were available?

I don’t like lockdown, but the crisis period of the pandemic is not over yet; and the risks/damages and benefits of restrictions are still extremely finely balanced and too close to call.

At last some sense -agree fully.

Of course lockdown suits nobody

On the contrary, it suits a small but vocal minority quite well.

@AlecTrevelyan006

If you are in favour of a ‘circuit breaker’ or reintroducing some restrictions then really you should calling for a full lockdown - because unless things are closed and restrictions made compulsory then most people are not going to comply in future.

That's a worry yes. Whatever measures they do now must be effective you'd hope?!

You’re all banging out some fury here

Not angry but some stuff doesn’t make sense. People have forgotten Wales etc and go on about Afghanistan and Netflix etc

[quote DoubleShotEspresso]@FallingRussetLeaves I'm not a "lockdown advocate" (what a horrid label?!) .
I'm asking how so many here are so certain of what they are not prepared to do to protect wider society whilst being so blissfully unaware of what others are going through. Of course lockdown suits nobody, my initial point (which everybody here has conveniently overlooked) is that many of us have been isolated long before Covid , ignored, completely invisible. Due to society catering to the majority, our government is a disgrace. This of course includes victims of DV etc...
Even today at a press conference on the issue of social care- not a single reference to unpaid carers. Not one.
But again this is more comfortable and convenient abd the truth really is it's because the powers that be know we do what we do because there really is no choice. Ever . Before or during Covid.[/quote]
If you are not a lockdown advocate, which incidentally is an entirely neutral and appropriate term for a person who is an advocate of lockdown, writing 'The only alternatives are lockdowns now it's obvious right? Unless you really want us all dead?' as you did upthread was rather confusing. What did that actually mean?

And really, that's not what you're saying. This is the first time you've acknowledged what lockdown does to victims of DV, for example.

@irresistibleoverwhelm

You’re all banging out some fury here claiming that other people are “calling for” or “in favour of” lockdowns like we’re personally the evil Covid fairies. Do carry on aiming your anger at me, but I don’t call for or impose any lockdowns and I doubt any of you are research epidemiologists, so the news is that neither of us has anything to do with what happens in the future or how to evaluate whether case rates will go up or whatever 😂

It's interesting that you think none of us has anything to do with what happens in the future.

We have a populist government. Johnson doesn't do anything if he doesn't think it will play well with the general public. He isn't willing to be unpopular. With that in mind, people's expressed views on circuit breakers, further lockdowns etc really do have an impact on policy. Quite possibly more than those of epidemiologists! I don't know whether the news coverage of this story came from a government leak or not, but naturally they're going to be paying attention to the responses. We aren't going to have another lockdown or even a circuit breaker if Johnson thinks it will be more politically inconvenient than having one.

@Thewiseoneincognito

That's good news.

It is not perpetual.

With more people becoming vaccinated and herd immunity (through both vaccinations and infections) gradually building, each wave will be successively milder, until we can live with it.

Building more hospitals is not a solution, as we can’t staff them. And just nicking poor countries’ doctors and nurses is not an ethical solution either (before we hear it is all the fault of Brexit).

What we need is to attack COVID on all fronts: vaccinate the whole population, mask wearing and social distancing in the short term, and developing more home grown doctors and nurses and fundamental research in the medium term.

The delta variant is an annoyance when we would have had herd immunity, but ultimately no pandemic lasts more than 2-3 years and I suspect this winter will be the last dangerous wave.

At the moment we are playing fantasy normal life and creating a lot of problems 4-8 weeks out.

@DoubleShotEspresso I think if a circuitbreaker or even a slightly longer lockdown worked I think most if not all would take the hit.

But the stark awful truth is that as @TheKeatingFive its almost a placebo effect. Delta is just too widespread and too transmissible to really tame by anything other than an actual proper lockdown the length of which given our numbers would have such ramifications that Covid would be the least of our problems.

We have a notion in society that we can fight these things, that we can fight Covid and we can fight cancer where we simply cant. They are not things you can fight against.

Our healthcare collapse is as much there due to a decrease in funding and an increase in people (amongst other things) that Covid has just flung a spotlight on

Most countries would struggle though. And reading about Aus and provision in NZ I’ve actually thought we coped with a huge onslaught remarkably. Already for former strain is showing (in media anyway) and latter it doesn’t take much to overwhelm.

Plus lockdown doesn’t necessarily work against delta - looking at Melbourne

If things are really bad in December, how many people here are happy for their elderly mum to wait seven hours for an ambulance after a fall and die on a trolley in a corridor, because no-one would ever countenance wearing a mask again? Or their kid to die after a road traffic accident purely because no ITU beds were available?

You’re going to be very disappointed then, when you find out that wearing masks prevent none of that.

Only thing that will help is to vaccinate or give boosters to at-risk populations. Push to vaccinate teens probably won’t have a huge effect—it’s the remaining over-50s that need to be convinced

@MarshaBradyo "
Plus lockdown doesn’t necessarily work against delta - looking at Melbourne"

I think the government will keep this in mind when making decisions - given how high cases are here it would be take a long, strict lockdown to make a dent. Masks in shops won't cut it.

I suspect and actually hope that the plan is just ride this wave out now before winter.

@irresistibleoverwhelm

It’s seriously daft and hyperbolic to call anyone a “lockdown advocate” or say they must enjoy wearing a mask.

Last year people were fuming because we didn’t have the half term “circuit breaker” and as a result we ended up in three months of lockdown after Christmas - basically because a huge number of people did as they pleased in the run-up to Christmas. And we ended up locked down afterwards as a result.

The situation is different now with vaccines, but the risk of healthcare collapse is still there. If things are really bad in December, how many people here are happy for their elderly mum to wait seven hours for an ambulance after a fall and die on a trolley in a corridor, because no-one would ever countenance wearing a mask again? Or their kid to die after a road traffic accident purely because no ITU beds were available?

I don’t like lockdown, but the crisis period of the pandemic is not over yet; and the risks/damages and benefits of restrictions are still extremely finely balanced and too close to call.

I would blame the government for not putting enough money into the NHS. It should NOT be the job of the general public to protect the NHS by restricting their lives. We pay tax to fund this and the money is not being spent as it should.

@Quartz2208,

'
We have a notion in society that we can fight these things, that we can fight Covid and we can fight cancer where we simply cant. They are not things you can fight against.'

We can and have fought successfully against both cancer and COVID. I am not sure where your defeatism comes from.

This type of post generally comes from people who feel that they and their families are safe from COVID, rightly or wrongly.

I always ask the same questions:

Are you happy to see people gasping to death for air, as oxygen and delivery systems are not available?

Are you happy for you or your child to die of other treatable ailments, as hospitals are overwhelmed?

These are the inevitable consequences if our hospital system is truly overwhelmed.

We have been on the margins of being overwhelmed in the previous two waves and many preventable deaths have occurred. However, this is due to COVID and not our response to it.

Those who say we have to learn to live with it, have you considered what the ramifications of us trying to live with Covid would be?

Let’s say we continue as we are now without face masks and restrictions in place and the hospitals end up being nearly overwhelmed by November. We still don’t lockdown and we don’t close schools. Daily deaths start to go over the 300, 400, marks and people start to notice massive issues with deliveries and supplies of certain services, medical services shrink even more so.

We get to December in the peak of Christmas festivities and shopping madness with Covid essentially everywhere, schools struggling to remain open properly if at all. People mixing in large groups for Christmas events which leads to more spikes.

At what point would people say stop? Would they ever?

How would NHS front line workers manage to cope with the demands of such pressure without any end in sight and no one making any effort to change the situation? How is that remotely acceptable to anyone?

I Just can not envision any government allowing their country to fall into such a mess without any intervention.

@Thewiseoneincognito immunity will build. From vaccines but also if it's infecting that many people then there will be a threshold where it stops. Yes you can get reinfected but not straight away and especially not if vaccinated and it will get milder each time you catch it.

Cases wouldn't just rise and rise and rise forever.

People were furious at the lack of a fire breaker lockdown yes but wakes had it abs still a long three month lockdown after Christmas!

People are creating a narrative that is untrue re so much on this pandemic and we are not listening to the evidence if people are so keen on a firebreak two week lockdown as the “solution” to save the nhs a better start would not be “and if you don’t agree with me you don’t care about saving the nhs@ but explaining any evidence you have that a two week lockdown will change the course of the pandemic significantly. What you are calling for needs to work and there is no evidence this strategy does! If it does why is Sidney which lockdowns really quite early (with Under 100 cases a day) still in lockdown three months later with over 1000 cases a day?!

Happy to lockdown after Christmas as long as schools are open, it’s cold, dark and miserable. Happy to stay at home then!
Won’t be complying in October or before Christmas. Last Autumn was shit and I won’t comply again.
If we’re still worried about Covid then we need to bring back contact isolation if you live in the same household. Being able to go to school/ work when family members have it is nuts.
Bring back mandatory masks. They may not help a lot but they don’t cost much.

@notgotthehelp whilst I appreciate your view, I’m not sure it’s scientifically confirmed that reinfection is milder and that vaccination does very much to reduce reinfection risk. I’m happy to be proven wrong but I think that’s just wishful thinking at the moment, in an ideal world that would be the case and it just keeps reinfecting us until it becomes nothing but so far the mutations seem to say differently.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@Quartz2208,

'
We have a notion in society that we can fight these things, that we can fight Covid and we can fight cancer where we simply cant. They are not things you can fight against.'

We can and have fought successfully against both cancer and COVID. I am not sure where your defeatism comes from.

This type of post generally comes from people who feel that they and their families are safe from COVID, rightly or wrongly.

I always ask the same questions:

Are you happy to see people gasping to death for air, as oxygen and delivery systems are not available?

Are you happy for you or your child to die of other treatable ailments, as hospitals are overwhelmed?

These are the inevitable consequences if our hospital system is truly overwhelmed.

We have been on the margins of being overwhelmed in the previous two waves and many preventable deaths have occurred. However, this is due to COVID and not our response to it.[/quote]
It’s not defeatist for me it’s gives a notion that those who fight more survive whilst anthropomorphising them into a war

Making it into the notion of a fight is exactly what creates the defeatism in the first place. I have not been defeated because I never thought I was in a war with a virus in the first place.

So frankly the rest of your questions don’t need answering but our response isn’t about fighting it is about trying to manage and live with it the best we can. Balancing out each intervention as to what works what doesn’t and at what cost

Are you happy to see people gasping to death for air, as oxygen and delivery systems are not available?

Are you happy for you or your child to die of other treatable ailments, as hospitals are overwhelmed?

It wasn’t a 2-week circuit breaker and masks in Tesco that avoided this previously, though, was it? It took harsh months-long lockdowns. Most people were willing to go along with those lockdowns for that reason, when that was the alternative.

People start being a lot less willing to go along with harsh restrictions when the alternative is ‘hospitals busier than normal’ instead of ‘hospitals overwhelmed and systems collapsing.’ Or when told that the alternative is full-on healthcare system collapse, but we can avoid it with a 2-week ‘circuit breaker’ and masks in Tesco.