BMJ: Teachers not at greater risk of hosp'n, and lower risk of severe disease, than general population

[Kokeshi123]

www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2060?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage

Unlike previous studies, this one actually looked at periods when schools were open and compared like-with-like for those periods.

Compared with adults of working age who are otherwise similar, teachers and their household members were not found to be at increased risk of hospital admission with covid-19 and were found to be at lower risk of severe covid-19. These findings should reassure those who are engaged in face-to-face teaching.

This should not be taken to mean that we should do schooling with no mitigations whatsoever--I'd be in favor of doing indoor masks for kids and teachers till the winter is over if it was up to me, and ventilation is always a good thing anyway. However, at least this should provide some reassurance for teachers and families. And in my opinion, this kind of thing should settle the argument on having any further school closures; mitigations are one thing, but schools absolutely must remain open IMO.

@noblegiraffe for what it’s worth, I’m sorry if you have had a hard time through the pandemic and in getting your views across, without people misrepresenting them. I’m very prepared to believe that you personally never called for schools to close.

I took a look at the thread you linked to, and I don’t personally agree that the all the measures you were calling for were appropriate/ proportionate/ in the best interests of children. However, I do accept that what you were advocating for was measures in schools to mitigate covid transmission and not the closure of schools.

If you want to talk about the NEU then write NEU?

Not that difficult is it?

@mumsneedwine

Think this misses the point most teachers have been trying to get across. We are more likely to catch COVID as there are no measures now and the population is mixing more outside school. If we catch it, even with a mild case (& what medics call mild doesn't feel that way !) then we can't work. Too many of us sick at same time and school can't function and will close. That's why we want some measures, yes to protect vulnerable colleagues and students but also so we can stay open. We need healthy upright teachers for that to happen. This week I've been in a hall with no windows or doors open with over 100 people sitting shoulder to shoulder in rows facing each other. No masks. Any other job been doing that this week ? I'm resigned to it now. 🤞🤞🤞 is our only protection and no one carers much.

You’ll find that the vaccine gives you excellent protection.

@herecomesthsun

If you want to talk about the NEU then write NEU?

Not that difficult is it?

What I said was clear, accurate and relevant to the discussion.

@herecomesthsun

I did say however that -teachers as a group did not want schools closed and -the unions were predominantly looking for safer schools,

• particularly looking back to last September

Come last January even Boris Johnson was eventually in favour of closing schools.

Ok but if the schools weren’t ‘safe’ according to the union’s standards, they did advocate closures, no?

The vaccine works better than keeping fingers crossed ...to 'mumsneeds wine'. If you haven't had it, perhaps consider it. You'll fine you're not unprotected then.

just did a search on 'no teachers wanted schools to close' on this thread and what comes up is @Bizawit

We could generously say you were paraphrasing there?

Ok but if the schools weren’t ‘safe’ according to the union’s standards, they did advocate closures, no?

and if teachers didn't actually, you know, go on strike over this, presumably their choice was to keep schools open instead? as that would have been one option?

(not that I know much about teachers' unions)

Vaccines are great, and yes they offer significant protection, but not 100%

And schools still have crowded classrooms with over 30 unvaccinated people in them etc.

@herecomesthsun

Ok but if the schools weren’t ‘safe’ according to the union’s standards, they did advocate closures, no?

and if teachers didn't actually, you know, go on strike over this, presumably their choice was to keep schools open instead? as that would have been one option?

(not that I know much about teachers' unions)

Lol as if they would have. They know how unpopular it would be so they preferred to whine about it instead.

@herecomesthsun

Vaccines are great, and yes they offer significant protection, but not 100%

And schools still have crowded classrooms with over 30 unvaccinated people in them etc.

The amount of unvaccinated people in your presence doesn’t matter. What matters is you have an effective vaccine. It protects you from serious side effects even if you get a breakthrough case of COVID.

@herecomesthsun

just did a search on 'no teachers wanted schools to close' on this thread and what comes up is *@Bizawit*

We could generously say you were paraphrasing there?

I can’t remember what the exact phrasing was admittedly.

The amount of unvaccinated people in your presence doesn’t matter. What matters is you have an effective vaccine. It protects you from serious side effects even if you get a breakthrough case of COVID.

From the government website

"The vaccines used in the COVID-19 vaccination programme are highly effective for the vast majority of the population, including the clinically extremely vulnerable, but as with any other vaccine there remains some risk of catching the virus and becoming seriously unwell."

For people who were CEV the advice was initially to try to avoid unvaccinated people, in fact (I couldn't find this in the current advice just now, and note it has been updated on 3rd September).

However, shielding is not in force, and I know that some of the teachers in my children's schools were also CEV. There is a risk remaining especially to those teachers, in secondary schools, where most children aren't vaccinated yet, and the rates are likely to become very high.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19#adults

re teachers taking action to close schools

They know how unpopular it would be ...

right, so they didn't actually do it, did they? As you suggest, it was merely something that was discussed by the unions, (and I'd add, together with other possible courses of action that would have involved making schools safer),

I took a look at the thread you linked to, and I don’t personally agree that the all the measures you were calling for were appropriate/ proportionate/ in the best interests of children.

And yet had they been implemented, we might not have had closed schools from Jan-March. This would have definitely been the better option, if we're doing a cost/benefit analysis of both approaches.

You’ll find that the vaccine gives you excellent protection.

It depends a bit on what you mean by 'excellent', and also what you think I am protected against.

I am indebted to a poster on another thread for the following:

^UCL dynamic causal modelling (updated 29th August 2021)

The cumulative estimates (vaccinated vs. unvaccinated) risks are:
relative risk of infection 85.9%
relative risk of mild illness 38.9%
relative risk of severe illness 14.6%
relative risk of fatality 3.0%^

That means that my risk of catching Covid (compared with an unvaccinated person) is only reduced by 14.1%. My risk of being seriously ill, compared with a vaccinated person, is reduced by 85%, which is good BUT this data doesn't break out the higher and lower age ranges, for which the efficacy rates are different:

^preventing serious illness when symptomatic (age 15-34) 81.8% (CI 81.2 to 82.3)
preventing serious illness when symptomatic (age 35-70) 49.0% (CI 47.6 to 50.4)^

I am glad that I am 97% less likely than an unvaccinated person of my age to die - bit as I am an older teacher, that still gives a visible death rate, especially since the prevailing assumption is that infection rates in school will be very high.

Sorry, just checked the more recent version of the same data:

www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/forecasting/

As a double vaccinated person, that modeling suggests I am now nearly 90% as likely as an unvaccinated person to become infected (ie vaccination only reduced my risk of infection by 10% vs an unvaccinated person). I am about 5% as likely to die, and 13% as likely to be seriously ill.

The fact that these numbers are creeping in the wrong direction week on week as each update is released is not making me feel desperately optimistic!

I am a double vaccinated older teacher (50) who has asthma and other conditions that were CV until they weren't.

In my class I already have 3 year 6's off with covid.

In July our head (double vaccinated, 49) caught it. She's still unwell with long covid.

All the siblings of the ill kids in my class are still in, wandering about, out with everyone in a completely normal playtime.

I am grateful i'm vaccinated but I don't feel safe by any means. My co2 monitor went off at 9.10 today. All windows and doors open.

@noblegiraffe

I took a look at the thread you linked to, and I don’t personally agree that the all the measures you were calling for were appropriate/ proportionate/ in the best interests of children.

And yet had they been implemented, we might not have had closed schools from Jan-March. This would have definitely been the better option, if we're doing a cost/benefit analysis of both approaches.

I doubt they would have made much difference to be honest.

We'll never know. But we do know that not implementing them definitely ended with closed schools. It might have been worth at least attempting to avoid that outcome.

If a lockdown was still required, it could have been shorter as case rates would have been lower.

Sorry, that was in relation to noble's last comment - forgot to quote.

@phlebasconsidered

I am a double vaccinated older teacher (50) who has asthma and other conditions that were CV until they weren't.

In my class I already have 3 year 6's off with covid.

In July our head (double vaccinated, 49) caught it. She's still unwell with long covid.

All the siblings of the ill kids in my class are still in, wandering about, out with everyone in a completely normal playtime.

I am grateful i'm vaccinated but I don't feel safe by any means. My co2 monitor went off at 9.10 today. All windows and doors open.

Gosh @phlebasconsidered, you have a monitor? They haven’t been mentioned at all at my school.

Yes, we've alwayd had them for the past 5 years. They bleep about 15 minutes in to each day so the end result is that you just teach in a room that you know is basically just breath each day.