Apparently 50% of teens have had covid

[whenwillthemadnessend]

Reported by bbc today on article regarding teen vaccine turndown.

I find that very hard to believe

Of my friends kids I know of only four that have definitely had it. That's out of many others.

Maybe 20% max in my social circle.

As a poll have your kids been confirmed as positive

@derekthe1adyhamster

I work in a boarding house with 80 teenage girls. 4 have had it (South East)

That you know of. Teens are usually asymptomatic

Long covid is over estimated in kids, is less serious and almost all resolves in 8 weeks

It's not called long covid until 15 weeks ...

Over estimated from what? One commentator basically said 'oh, 1 in 7 is quite good because someone thought it might be 50%.'. No one has ever tracked down this apparent 50% estimate.

Point of order on asymptomatic. What this usually means is 'asymptomatic at point of positive test' (ie when asked by t and T). Most do go on to develop symptoms, albeit mild ones. There are very few truly asymptomatic cases.

We are getting loads of students testing positive all of a sudden, after another slight wave when Kent took off in our area last year. Obviously many cases will be missed, especially in the younger age groups of secondary.

There are also big regional variations.

@Watapalava

Those kids that died had very serious underlying issues, many of which were in hospital for treatment

Long covid is over estimated in kids, is less serious and almost all resolves in 8 weeks

Vulnerable kids will now be vaccinated but even CEV kids at very low risk or we'd have seen a lot more complications

Oh, very few vulnerable kids are vaccinated, they have only just started to roll out vaccinations and immunity takes weeks to develop.

But why let a few facts spoil your narrative?

It's not called long covid until 15 weeks

That really should be the case but it isn’t.

NICE

“ To develop the recommendations, we have used the following clinical definitions for the initial illness and long COVID at different times:
• Acute COVID-19: signs and symptoms of COVID-19 for up to 4 weeks.
• Ongoing symptomatic COVID-19: signs and symptoms of COVID-19 from 4 to 12 weeks.
• Post-COVID-19 syndrome: signs and symptoms that develop during or after an infection consistent with COVID-19, continue for more than 12 weeks and are not explained by an alternative diagnosis.

In addition to the clinical case definitions, 'long COVID' is commonly used to describe signs and symptoms that continue or develop after acute COVID-19. It includes both ongoing symptomatic COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 syndrome (defined above).”

But the study which I assume wata is alluding to was after 15 weeks.

To be honest, if you are still ill after more than three weeks , it's a pretty long and draining illness. I speak form bitter experience.

Even above it actually says 112 weeks. Anyone I know who has had further exploration has had to wait 12 weeks.

12 not 112 !!

I'd also liek to point out that even if 50% of teens currently have antibodies, that is nowhere near enough for the herd immunity so craved.

From above, long covid includes ‘ongoing’ (4-12) and post covid syndrome (12+ weeks).

I agree that it should be post COVID syndrome that we refer to as ‘long COVID’ but, at the moment a cough or tiredness that lasts for 4 weeks is called long covid.

Yes, just as with any virus, this would be called post viral.

But, I repeat the study wat referred to was about symptoms at 15 + weeks.

@Piggywaspushed

I'd also liek to point out that even if 50% of teens currently have antibodies, that is nowhere near enough for the herd immunity so craved.

I don’t think it’s in relation to achieving herd immunity. It’s the fact that they already have antibodies so have been infected, and should have durable immunity from that. If the balance of risk-benefit is so marginal then giving the vaccine to a child that is already immune is going to tip that balance further away from the child gaining benefit from it.

This story originally was not linked to the vaccines, though.

As you know the CMO , and others, will look at wider societal benefits.

Is this the 1in7 study that said that they weren’t sure if some of the symptoms being reported were actually due to the virus or lockdown? And iirc didn’t around 13/14% of the children follow up and they mentioned that it could therefore be skewed by it mainly being people with symptoms that would report?

Yes, that one. But that is the source that wat is using. It isn't a very reliable source but it is being used by people to quite the 'way less than we* thought' line.

• and no one knows who we are.

Is it that one or the other one that was published over the summer that showed that most symptoms in children resolved within 8 weeks?

A mix of the two perhaps....

I can see an argument for not vaccinating a teen if you know they have antibodies. But a huge portion of this apparent 50 % won't know. Unlike a vaccinated adult, or one who , again. knows they have recently had covid.

The measures in place have always been a balance between difficult things and never ever about ensuring as much as possible no one dies of covid. So children have suffered enough since March 2020 in terms of damage to schooling, masks etc and now we change tack. As to vaccinating teenagers that will be their or their parents' decision.

Yes, I’ve been saying for ages that we should be using antibody tests for young people. They should be exempt from isolating if they have antibodies / proof of previous infection within 6-9 months.

This recent study found that 36% of people with covid had no detectable antibodies (3 weeks after infection) and that the number, having no detectable antibodies, was higher in younger people.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/9/21-1042_article

Immune response is also about t-cells (and b-cells) especially if you have it mildly (which teenagers are most likely to).

T-cells can protect us for years. We don’t have the research available yet for Covid as t-cells are far harder (and more expensive l) to measure but there’s no reason to believe they would not be involved in an immune response to this virus.

T-cells from SARS have lasted in people for 15 years...

There’s a lot we don’t know about immunity and Covid but it’s definitely not all about just antibodies.

I'm surprised it's only 50%. I would have thought that they had all been exposed to it by now.

not where prevalence has consistently been low

also some of the most vulnerable haven't been exposed as they've been shielding (which skews figures a bit)

I imagine they know the percentage of asymptomatic cases in children and the spread of Delta so modelling suggests 50%.

That's good though, although I'm sure someone will make it spin into bad news.

@Howshouldibehave

I suspect that’s a made up statistic.

None of my own children have had covid.

Aaaagh You don’t know Do you know what asymptotic means? Have they had regular pcr tests since November 2019? 🤦🏻‍♀️