Apparently 50% of teens have had covid

[whenwillthemadnessend]

Reported by bbc today on article regarding teen vaccine turndown.

I find that very hard to believe

Of my friends kids I know of only four that have definitely had it. That's out of many others.

Maybe 20% max in my social circle.

As a poll have your kids been confirmed as positive

We've be testing every week during the holidays. I think we're the minority though.

@Warhertisuff

Recent ONS report indicates that 25% of teachers have acquired Covid antibodies from infection. On the basis you can have the infection but not have detectable levels of antibodies (but still have protection), it implies that the number of teachers who have had it is higher still.

In this context the 50% figure isn't too surprising. I expect by half-term that will have risen dramatically.

How would they know whether it is vaccine or infection?

Yes, probably @liveforsummer! I'm sure some of the 6th form will have been to Reading last weekend and that seems to have been a mass-transmission event (and having been to Reading myself, back in the day, I can see why). I do hope there isn't too much disruption to education this year. These poor DC really their lives to go back to normal, including proper, in-school education, sports, arts and leisure opportunities.

I'd be interested to see how they've worked that out.

If you look on the government website. Looking at the age 10-14 and 15-19 age categories for England, the average rate per 100k is around 13k, so slightly more than 1 in 8.

13k would have to multiply by 4 to get to 50k so if you're looking at 3 out of every 4 people being asymptomatic-plus getting a negative on a lateral flow then that is possible.

I'd say that 3 out of 4 being asymptomatic in that age seems not unreasonable (or getting different symptoms so no PCR), but don't forget that this age will disproportionally have been doing lateral flows for the last few months. Yes, they're not that reliable, but even at 50% accuracy I'd have expected a bit more of a rise. Don't forget that during the two biggest waves (March 2020 and January 2021) schools were also in lockdowns which will have reduced the spread too.

You also need to throw in before starting to say they're towards herd immunity that if antibodies start tailing off after 6 months then even January illnesses the antibodies will be on the wane.

For my dc, dd1 definitely hasn't had it (she's done a couple of antibody tests so can be certain) and is now double jabbed.
Dd2 I don't think has had it. She's had no symptoms, no close contacts at school and no positive lateral flow tests-and she's been doing 2 a week throughout. She has had 1 jab though.
Ds MAY have had it. March 2020 he and me had a temperature, cough, and I definitely had change of taste before it was a thing, for 24 hours. However I did an antibody test last May (Zoe app) and had no antibodies from illness, so I don't know if he did or not. However the chances are if he did, then he has no antibodies left.

My 2 haven't had it. DS1 tested negative last week

@Delatron

If 30% (at least, this is for older age groups) have it asymptomatically then how can anyone on here judge for sure?

It doesn’t surprise me at all.

30% is the top end of estimates for asymptomatic infection isn’t it? I’ve seen estimates as low as 15%

@zafferana

Yes, probably *@liveforsummer*! I'm sure some of the 6th form will have been to Reading last weekend and that seems to have been a mass-transmission event (and having been to Reading myself, back in the day, I can see why). I do hope there isn't too much disruption to education this year. These poor DC really their lives to go back to normal, including proper, in-school education, sports, arts and leisure opportunities.

We're already struggling quite badly with staffing and had to send an entire year group home. (Primary) dd1 is in secondary and doesn't seem too bad so far re schooling being affected - just lots of individual dc positive and isolating but I guess winter will be the true test.

This is the university situation I remembered, on googling

770 students at Northumbria University test positive for coronavirus
Seventy-eight of those who tested positive have symptoms, university says

Some were worried on here at the time but it does also show high rate of asymptomatic cases

Slightly older but that would skew it other way anyway

Almost every one of my son's friends at Bristol have had it (he lived with one, ate with them , almost spat on them and did not seem to get it unless he got it without symptoms). One of my adult children had it as did their double vaxxed spouse back in July ( so totally pointless to quarantine them for 10 days in the UK currently at home... )

It’s impossible to know.

I wouldn’t be surprised if my dc have had it. I had it (textbook symptoms) last year, but at a time when you couldn’t get a test unless you were admitted to hospital, and you weren’t admitted unless critically ill. My exH had it shortly after me (unsurprising, with the dc going between our houses).

Dd1was a little under the weather, dd2 had a lingering cold/cough, and ds had absolutely no symptoms in the weeks after exH and I had it. Obviously couldn’t test them either. But it really wouldn’t be surprising if it turned out they had had it (and generally, exH and I work on the assumption they have - they were in close proximity to us both over the time we both had it, so we’re definitely exposed (not possible to isolate ourselves from the dc)

@chillichoclove

School studies have shown that 50% have positive antibodies to covid. In April! So must be higher now. Many have no symptoms. I think it's why the vaccine question is so challenging.

50% of those tested, surely? Nobody has tested the entire country's teenagers.

@herecomesthsun

A paper outlining differences in antibodies created by infection and vaccines.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/06/22/how-immunity-generated-from-covid-19-vaccines-differs-from-an-infection/amp/

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow very, very few teens I know do LFT twice a week. A handful do them occasionally. A much bigger group don't bother. Some parents urge them to do so, many say there's no point. This is widespread among the many parent groups I am involved in. They may say they do them if asked at school but that's just to avoid a "telling off".

So any stats based on LFT rates ain't gonna count for much.

My DD (young teens) had it at Christmas

Well there’s not many cases where l work lateral flow or not.

It’s an area of low transmission. Cases are low across the whole area.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Well there’s not many cases where l work lateral flow or not.

It’s an area of low transmission. Cases are low across the whole area.

Again, this is only the diagnosed cases. Not the asymptotic people currently still happily going about their business. The number of people who’ve got it/ had it will always be greater than the number testing positive. It may still be low, but you can’t know that without the data.

Interestingly, the observation of low numbers could be consistent with the hypothesis that most children have had it.

If I read it right, the article @herecomesthsun suggests that acquired immunity (gotten from the virus itself, or perhaps a related virus) tends to stops it even when the infection is in the nose and throat. (Whereas the vaccine seems to stop it robustly, but with lesser effect in the respiratory tract, and greater in the body itself.)

So could it be simply that low numbers reflect endemic historically acquired immunity? Perhaps it's not that they didn't get it, but we just missed it. And now that we're looking, we see low numbers, but that's because they're no longer a viable host for the virus, rather than fact of the virus not being around them.

Wishful thinking perhaps.

Will be interesting to see if Scotland's troubles magically disappear in the next few weeks.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

It’s in a very compliant area. Most people still wearing masks and parents very supportive of testing.

If students did have asymptomatic cases, it wasn’t spreading very much. There’s 1800 kids in the school. There was no spreading it from one to another. Just isolated cases here and there.

I also Iive in what could be described (rather pompously) as "highly compliant" area.... And my DS attends a high school of 1,800 or so similarly with very low cases - at least positive tests (could we be neighbours 😆).... but you'd be naive to believe that the pupils were all doing LFTs twice weekly - my "well-behaved" son definitely slipped in the summer term and I'm not convinced how "thorough" his tests were judging by one I saw him take over the summer after his DB had some possible Covid symptoms.

@whenwillthemadnessend

Reported by bbc today on article regarding teen vaccine turndown.

I find that very hard to believe

Of my friends kids I know of only four that have definitely had it. That's out of many others.

Maybe 20% max in my social circle.

As a poll have your kids been confirmed as positive

Vast majority of the 50% won’t have known they’ve had it and won’t have tested. Amount of positive tests is the tip of the iceberg!

@Geamhradh no, they are estimating that 50% of all teenagers have had the virus. Regardless of any testing

3DC, the two teenagers have had positive PCRs, the youngest was 'inconclusive' but since DH also was positive despite being fully vaccinated I think he'd have done well to avoid it (I was negative but since I'm fully vaccinated that's less surprising).

9 of my sons rugby team!

@herecomesthsun iirc the antibody tests detect different proteins - some indicate immunity after infection while others indicate immunity after vaccination.

Assuming that every teenager has been tested and the tests are 100% accurate.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’m a teacher. That means 50% of kids in the school would have had it.

I’d say 8% have

Just thinking, you'd surely have no idea how many pupils were infected (especially if many were asymptomatic or barely symptomatic) during either the first or second waves when schools were shut for months on end just as cases were at their highest, especially as both of the peaks coincided with Easter and Christmas 2020 holidays when even those pupils too ill to work from home wouldn't have been on your school's radar.

So, even if your pupils have all been diligently doing LFTs (which have only been in place since March 2021), the infections you'll be aware of is likely to be a small fraction of the total.