Apparently 50% of teens have had covid

[whenwillthemadnessend]

Reported by bbc today on article regarding teen vaccine turndown.

I find that very hard to believe

Of my friends kids I know of only four that have definitely had it. That's out of many others.

Maybe 20% max in my social circle.

As a poll have your kids been confirmed as positive

Nobody could have any idea how many teens have had it. First wave? No tests. They were dropping like flies round here.
Then all the asymptomatic cases. Claiming a certain % in a school have had it has no evidence to back it up.

Here’s the link to the school antibody survey from March. Round 5 (up to June iirc) hasn’t been released yet.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/covid19schoolsinfectionsurveyengland/round4pupilantibodydatamarch2021

“For secondary school pupils an estimated 5.21% and 5.47% in Bournemouth and Norfolk respectively had antibody levels above the limit of detection and 24.85% and 28.42% in Manchester and Barking and Dagenham respectively had antibody levels above the limit of detection.”

This is obviously pre-delta. It will be interesting to see the results from round 5.

A few sources mentioned 40% in July.

100% believe it

11 kids in dds year tested positive yesterday on first day back - all had no symptoms

Ds class in July had 3 cases and tested l kids - 22/30 had it and only 2/25 had symptoms

Most kids - not some - most are asymptomatic so wouldn’t know unless they’d had a random test

Random test uptake at our school is under 10%

I expect it’s more than 50%

Ds1 has had it twice. Ds2 has been in a house full of COVID twice but has had no symptoms. Wouldnt surprise me to learn he had antibodies though.

I'd say about 50% of the teens I know have had it - but then we live in a city where the rates have always been high.

This is interesting in the context of long covid among teens, because I don’t know how much the estimates of rates of long term complications of covid take into account the estimates of asymptomatic infections. Is it only confirmed cases that they use to estimate long covid prevalence?

At the moment many of these studies are based on self reporting of symptoms over a certain period of time.

@SMBH

None of mine have had it, neither my husband or I have antibodies on last test so haven’t caught it from them, been doing regular LFT as well. None of their close friends have had it either.

Yes I know bumbleymummy - I’m talking about the denominator rather than the numerator. What are they estimating it as a percentage of?

100% in my house as all 3 teens have had it.

reasons why it might be possible:
lack of any testing for people who did not end up in hospital in 2020
lack of testing for child symptoms rather than adult classic three symptoms.
lots of children get it mildly or assymptomatically so they may not be tested.

anacdotally, lot of kids were off in march 2020 with symptoms (temperatures) (no testing)

lots of cases in autumn term 2020. many many isolations and cases in school. it is quite likely that a lot of kids had it mildly and could not get a test.

Teens aren't just school kids either. Many schools stop at 16, all at 18. I think the older teens are more likely to have had it than the 13 yos due to greater socialising through lockdowns, higher likelihood of jobs (either p/t or full time) and university life. And again I doubt many of them have been testing regularly.

I honestly can't remember any school cases 1st wave as I was one of many parents who removed kids from school before 1st lockdown and school closures were announced.
We were super strict 1st lockdown they dident even go super markets with us.
Mine were not the chosen years to return last summer term was key year groups and mine were year 9 5 and 4 back then.
My son with sen did 3 days last July 2020 in bubble of 15 and loved it.
Rather spooky coincidence he only managed 3 days July 2021 too.
Due to self isolating and close contacts he had negative covid test

My 15 year old just finished year 10 regularly tested negative despite being close contact multiple times.

In the autumn 2020 me husband and year 6 were all quite poorly but covid negative . Never tested the toddler but she hardly been anywhere.
Husband works customer facing non essential retail.

To my knowledge none of us family if 6 have had .
Hardly any wider family were positive maybe 2 cousins.

Couple husband work colleague not all

Lft only came out late summer I think if I remember right last year

Huge numbers would have been positive them esp given fact the vast majority are asymptomatic or mild

No one was testing them unless very specific symptoms

Most kids do not have any symptoms

I think all of DS’s friends have had it. They have generously spread it amongst themselves at various “gatherings” (parties ) through the summer. Oh and just to make sure they all went to Boardmasters.
So I can well believe that 50% of 16-19 yr olds have had it.

So our achool of 680 finished its 2 tests today - 47 asymptomatic positives

I’d say 50% if not more would surely have had it based on such a high number esp when all 47 didn’t have a single symptom

@Watapalava

So our achool of 680 finished its 2 tests today - 47 asymptomatic positives

I’d say 50% if not more would surely have had it based on such a high number esp when all 47 didn’t have a single symptom

And factoring in a false negative rate for LFT of up to 50%, that equates to getting on for 100 cases. That’s a lot.

I agree

That’s why I don’t understand when people worry about kids getting it - saying such numbers haven’t had it etc

Round here (north west) I have yet to know of a single child who was diagnosed via symptoms - all were discovered via tests as contacts, ons study or random testing

Early last summer these tests weren’t readily available which is why I reckon actual numbers of kids who’ve had or been exposed to covid are way higher

My sons mate was positibe for covid on a ons study - random test. The test was done on a Monday. My ds sat next to him everyday til results on the Thursday afternoon (no isolation due to the fact it was an asymptomatic pcr study). My ds never tested positive dispite sitting next to him in every single lesson

He had no symptoms so maybe that’s why - no cough etc no transmission? I don’t know
I therefore suspect my son must have had it previously

The only thing I'd add is that such high detection numbers are slightly inconsistent with a local herd immunity hypothesis.

I'm only throwing the idea around. It's not the aim to spread worries.

But if test numbers are still high, then you have to conclude that it's a recent phenomenon (i.e., high numbers now, but much low numbers before, so it could still settle much lower), or that delta is quite infectious even to those already naturally immune (so it's basically a one off, and things'll settle), or perhaps even that children don't actually develop an enduring immunity at all (perhaps because their immune system judges there's no point, because infection itself is so mild).

Whatever's going on, it's an interesting dynamic. Interesting times to be an epidemiologist. :-)

For what it's worth, my money is on things burning out quite soon in the school age cohort. Big numbers, but low symptom numbers, and marginal hospitalisation. Disruptive, but only for reason of COVID rules. Delta is so transmissive that an effective barrier will be built up, even if it turns out only to be temporary. (I'm absolutely sure that statement does nothing to reassures a certain bunch of people!)

I posted on Saturday saying my 14 yo had it. Now his brothers also have it 22yo, 19yo, & 17yo twins. They could all have gone out to various social functions as only 14yo had to isolate, luckily we all decided it would be best if we all stayed at home. Just as well as there would be 3 groups of people they would have been with who they could then have passed it on to!

Thankfully they all seem to have it quite mildly. I'm now worried about myself (as an overthinker with health anxiety)

@Watapalava

I agree

That’s why I don’t understand when people worry about kids getting it - saying such numbers haven’t had it etc

Round here (north west) I have yet to know of a single child who was diagnosed via symptoms - all were discovered via tests as contacts, ons study or random testing

Early last summer these tests weren’t readily available which is why I reckon actual numbers of kids who’ve had or been exposed to covid are way higher

My sons mate was positibe for covid on a ons study - random test. The test was done on a Monday. My ds sat next to him everyday til results on the Thursday afternoon (no isolation due to the fact it was an asymptomatic pcr study). My ds never tested positive dispite sitting next to him in every single lesson

He had no symptoms so maybe that’s why - no cough etc no transmission? I don’t know
I therefore suspect my son must have had it previously

I don’t understand when people worry about kids getting it

some kids are vulnerable

some kids get long covid

a few kids die

we don't know the long term effects

does that help?

Those kids that died had very serious underlying issues, many of which were in hospital for treatment

Long covid is over estimated in kids, is less serious and almost all resolves in 8 weeks

Vulnerable kids will now be vaccinated but even CEV kids at very low risk or we'd have seen a lot more complications

I know LFTs aren't as reliable as PCRs but DD2&3's school did 1000 LFTs on children aged 12-16 yesterday and they had one positive. Having said that, the testing population is selective because anyone with symptoms should have stayed at home.

To be fair when we had it (Pre testing but later confirmed with antibody test we had classic symptoms) I would imagine my kids did too but neither displayed any symptoms.