Apparently 50% of teens have had covid

[whenwillthemadnessend]

Reported by bbc today on article regarding teen vaccine turndown.

I find that very hard to believe

Of my friends kids I know of only four that have definitely had it. That's out of many others.

Maybe 20% max in my social circle.

As a poll have your kids been confirmed as positive

@LegendaryReady

If the two teens in my house, one tested positive and the other didn't get it when the rest of us had it. I strongly suspect it was him who brought it home in the first place, asymptomatically, as he was working with the public and the rest of us genuinely hadn't been anywhere or seen anyone.

I suspect DS2 brought it into the house asymptomatically when DS1 caught it. DS1 had been isolating, then home studying for his A Levels. DS2 was going out to school. Track and trace were baffled when we tried to work backwards to see where contact was likely, so we concluded that DS2 was likely to have it too

It does include antibodies to both vaccination and infection. They do random testing of blood samples - eg surplus blood at blood donation or left over from routine blood tests, and spot testing in various other places (gp etc)
The schools study is on phe website

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/983299/sKIDssprotocolv1.6.pdf

Can't find the results at moment.

I have two teens. Eldest has had Covid twice. Youngest not at all.

@SingingSands

I have two teens. Eldest has had Covid twice. Youngest not at all.

How long between both cases @SingingSands ?

Unsurprisingly this is bollocks

@whenwillthemadnessend

Was she poorly second time sir Bobby

The first time (at Uni) he had no symptoms to speak of, the second time (end of July) felt as though he had a cold (sore throat, blocked up) but not particularly ill.

@howtodealwithit 11 months.
1st case was September 2020 and 2nd case was August this year, so we think it was probably the Delta variant.

Not sure that's true

I don't think that sounds unrealistic. Even in my primary class about 25% have had a confirmed case. I would imagine a few fair others have had it without knowing. Same in my DS class at school.

As a poll have your kids been confirmed as positive

Confirmed positives does not equal number of positives. Especially among teens who are often asymptomatic

Recent ONS report indicates that 25% of teachers have acquired Covid antibodies from infection. On the basis you can have the infection but not have detectable levels of antibodies (but still have protection), it implies that the number of teachers who have had it is higher still.

In this context the 50% figure isn't too surprising. I expect by half-term that will have risen dramatically.

I can believe this. We all had a weird temperature rise for 24hrs a week after the first lockdown (I was checking daily back then). Mild grogginess then nothing and we were all OK. I think we had it really mildly then it left.
I'd still like mine vaccinated though.

In your OP you're asking for experience of confirmed positives. Of course that's going to be significantly lower than an estimate of the total who've had it, as so many teens are a symptomatic.

This doesn't surprise me and makes the JVCI decision seem very sensible.

10 kids came down with it in our y6 class at the end of term... along with a few staff too.

Dd (17) had it at the end of term, along with a large number of y11s.

I'm in Scotland and based on the current situation I can quite believe this. I know countless people who have had recently or currently have covid and it's mostly children/teens or those who work with them. I'm sure the actual numbers including asymptomatic cases are probably even higher than 50% here. I don't actually know any secondary dc personally who are doing the twice weekly ltf tests either.

Both my teens have had it

DS16 was only found by fluke though. Positive on a LF for 24 hours (2x tests) then by the time PCR was done he was negative. Some might say that the LF was wrong, but he did have ‘symptoms’ - he had bloodshot eyes and a blocked nose.

It’s possible some teens have truly fleeting symptoms that you’d barely notice.

Wasn’t there a university that surprised people with high level of asymptomatic when all were tested

It was a while ago

Op do you have a link? Wondering where the study is from

The number of teens who now have Covid post Reading is staggering where we are. Most of the Lower 6ths are below 50% attendance!

In my house currently, my 17 yr old is positive with symptoms, and my 13 yr old is positive but asymptomatic. My 16 and 12 yr old are negative despite us all living in a relatively small house for the size of family, so perhaps the negs already had antibodies?

I have heard of several teens getting it for a second time though, so don't know how protective they are.

Two of my three teens have had confirmed Covid. They were completely asymptomatic- only found out through the LFT testing for school.

So I imagine loads of teenagers have been walking around with/spreading it unknowingly. 50% doesn’t sound surprising on that basis.

Who are they testing for antibodies to know that

One of mine was part of a huge ‘longitudinal study’ from birth so because they had us on the database they approached the whole family to do antibody tests. That study alone will have had access to lots of teens.

Who are they testing for antibodies to know that?

I was able to sign up for an antibody test through the ZOE app.

I believe it. Right at the beginning of the 1st pandemic, my DS complained of having no taste for a week or so. And then DD got a headache for a couple of hours and went to bed early and no taste the next day. No other symptoms, no cough, nothing. At the time, those weren't known symptoms so we thought how bizarre...

I would believe it too. But I do concede it is difficult to judge on the basis of personal experience.

My two don't seem to have ever demonstrated symptoms. An occasional headache, but that is difficult to pin specifically to COVID.

Except for testing for a single school trip, we've never had occasion to test either of them. Even then, it was an LFT, and so wouldn't have picked up historic infection or antibodies.

If the 50% figure is true, I'd expect:

1. a huge initial disruption, but due primarily to positive testing and subsequent isolation, rather than symptoms as the remaining 50% are exposed;

1. about a month or two later, a huge reduction in both as transmission and infection grind to a halt in that cohort.

Complicating the picture will be an early teen vaccination campaign, if it goes ahead. But it should still be possible to differentiate the two.

Will be very interesting to see if the 50% figure is accurate though as this will be the first group to approach 100% exposure, and it will show how close to natural 'herd immunity' we would really get.

I'm not surprised at all, in fact I thought it might have been a bit higher.