Cases soar in Israel despite high vaccine uptake

[Shanghaisprize]

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9951117/Israel-worlds-Covid-hotspot-0-2-population-catching-yesterday.html

Apologies for the source, but this looks a bit worrying - cases are soaring in Israel despite very high vaccine uptake. Serious Illness and deaths are down from the second wave, bit apparently rising sharply. Waning immunity is thought to a reason for this, yet in the UK we seem to be dithering around whether to introduce boosters.

With the already high number of cases, imminent back to school situation in England and lack of any mitigation measures, I'm worried. Anyone else?

No, not worried. We left a longer interval between doses which seems to have worked better irt immunity. The vaccines are also doing a good job of reducing serious illness death in the most vulnerable groups - and those groups are going to be offered boosters soon too. It does make a total joke out of the whole ‘vaccine passport’ idea though.

They had a three week dose interval. We had longer which is better.

Seems clear from the science that not only does immunity wane significantly (and a longer dose interval has little effect on that), there are several new variants that look to be evading the vaccines to varying extents.
If you're not a bit worried, you're not paying attention.

Cases are not the important metric any more since the link to hospitalisation and death has been largely broken for the vaccinated. Remember the WHOLE POINT was not to overwhelm the health service. That has been achieved.

Israel also were Pfizer only more or less I think so perhaps different vaccines have a different outcome. UK has a large AZ vaxxed, which might have longer immunity and will contribute to less community spread.

So no can't be worried about something that is non-comparable at this present time.

No, not worried in the slightest. Deaths and hospitalisations very low in the UK. Many differences between us and Israel, their situation will not predict ours.

Is it waning immunity or is it a lessened response from a vaccine developed pre-delta?

@VanCleefArpels is half right in that as long as a vaccine can prevent high levels of hospitalisation and death it’s not a problem as such although without a sterilising vaccine there will still be a ceiling of how many cases any one health system can cope with. While there are still significant hospitalisations cases are relevant. Although the conversation should be turning to developing healthcare resource for these cases because the numbers are significantly more manageable than pre-vaccine.

This is the danger of vaccinating into a pandemic. It puts evolutionary pressure on the virus, favouring the spread of stronger variants. The current vaccines are also extremely narrowly focused. We only need a variant to develop where the spike protein is less important in terms of successful infection and boom. Which brings us full circle to the wisdom of vaccinating during a pandemic...

@Jenala

This is the danger of vaccinating into a pandemic. It puts evolutionary pressure on the virus, favouring the spread of stronger variants. The current vaccines are also extremely narrowly focused. We only need a variant to develop where the spike protein is less important in terms of successful infection and boom. Which brings us full circle to the wisdom of vaccinating during a pandemic...

What do you mean by this please?

@Jenala

This is the danger of vaccinating into a pandemic. It puts evolutionary pressure on the virus, favouring the spread of stronger variants. The current vaccines are also extremely narrowly focused. We only need a variant to develop where the spike protein is less important in terms of successful infection and boom. Which brings us full circle to the wisdom of vaccinating during a pandemic...

What do you propose then? No vaccines?

@ManifestDestinee

Seems clear from the science that not only does immunity wane significantly (and a longer dose interval has little effect on that), there are several new variants that look to be evading the vaccines to varying extents. If you're not a bit worried, you're not paying attention.

What’s your source for the longer dose interval jabbing no effect?

I must say, when I look at the figures, variant does cross my mind, especially, as Jenala points out, with the added evolutionary pressure that the high vaccine rates might be putting on the virus.

@eggman007

I must say, when I look at the figures, variant does cross my mind, especially, as Jenala points out, with the added evolutionary pressure that the high vaccine rates might be putting on the virus.

Er, there’s this thing called the Delta variant. You might have heard of it…

Which brings us full circle to the wisdom of vaccinating during a pandemic...

I don’t think it’s a bad idea to vaccinate during a pandemic, I think it’s a bad idea to completely rely on vaccines that are clearly not 100% reducing infections.

One source re benefit of longer gap between doses
www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1875

PurpleDaisies, I meant a new one.

They are having their “delta variant wave” we are already well into ours. Not in the slightest bit worried. Also cases are irrelevant if they do not translate into serious illness.

@eggman007

PurpleDaisies, I meant a new one.

Do you have some insider information on this? Israel is well set up for genomic sequencing. What makes you think they’ve got something different going on there but haven’t found it?

the WHOLE POINT was not to overwhelm the health service. That has been achieved

Maybe, but can it be sustained in light of rising numbers, lack of any mitigation (except the vaccine), waning immunity and potential vaccine resistant strains?

I'm just really concerned that numbers and deaths are as high as they are before we've even had back to school or Uni (in England) or colder weather.

Thanks for that PurpleDaisies, I just said it crossed my mind.

I'm aware that the Delta variant has been making up the majority of cases in Israel and that there has been some small-scale detection of a further mutation of Delta.

Alpha and Beta variants weren't 'discovered' until cases had already soared.

I make no scientific claims. But I am entitled to be curious.

What’s your source for the longer dose interval jabbing no effect?

Read again, spot your mistake.

I think it’s a bad idea to completely rely on vaccines that are clearly not 100% reducing infections

Yes, this is my concern. If cases continue to rise and immunity does start to wane, then surely we could be in big trouble before long.

And when I say 'discovered', what I really mean is fully understood and announced publicly

Vaccine resistant strains aren’t going to appear over night. They would be the result of lots of mutations over a significant period of time. We shouldn’t be unduly worried about this as we’ll be able to stay ahead.

This is a helpful read

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom

As for Israel, it’s not clear to me if their numbers are due to just Delta or if immunity from vaccines is waning in the time period. I expect most western countries will embark on boosters for the vulnerable when they’ve finished the initial round of vaccination.

@ManifestDestinee

Seems clear from the science that not only does immunity wane significantly (and a longer dose interval has little effect on that), there are several new variants that look to be evading the vaccines to varying extents. If you're not a bit worried, you're not paying attention.

^

This.

The WHO are currently investigating the Mu Variant.