1000+ in ventilator beds already & school return with no household isolation

[RumblyMumbly]

Number of people in ventilator beds 1,014 on 31/08/21

It has been a steady / manageable rise since restrictions lifted in mid May when there were 125 patients in ventilator beds & while obviously awful for the people affected and their families this means the NHS has coped while there has been a lot of Covid cases

Does anyone else feel we may be at the tipping point? Schools in England mostly return this week for Autumn term.

If we compare with last years school return there were only 71 ventilator beds occupied on 31/08/20. Yes, we now have 64% of the total population double vaccinated which puts us in a far better situation than last year when the population had no protection. However, we had household isolations this time last year for positive cases, this year other household members of a positive case will be attending school and workplaces alongside everyone else and generally people will begin meeting indoors much more over the next few months.

Purpose of my post - nervousness about what will happen next...I don't want schools to close at all, children have already had 2 years of disrupted education. But to give my own personal experience - obviously other peoples differ - secondary remote learning can work if absolutely necessary (full schedule of lessons / homework) but primary remote learning (1hr lesson per day) did not work AT ALL & the vast majority of primary aged children are not ready to become independent learners while parents are in an impossible situation as they can't work and moonlight as a teacher.

I hope SAGE / the Government are watching the figures very closely and if we need a circuit breaker in October to keep the NHS manageable they act fast.

I don’t think you can compare this time last year , we were in lockdown longer last year and restrictions. your right about the people on ventilator but it’s been more gradual . Who knows what will happen op but I don’t think it’s time to panic about schools closing before they are opened .

What is the alternative though?
Public sympathy for another lockdown is slim to none.
The county can't afford another round of furlough.
Businesses can't afford to close again.
Parents can't afford to take anymore time off work if the schools close.

I don't necessarily agree with just letting everyone catch covid. But, what more can realistically be done? We cannot sustain indefinite lockdowns.

Definitely not calling for another lockdown however it seems yet again the government are walking blind into Autumn with the warning sirens ringing very loudly. For a start why not keep bubbles in school to minimise contacts and Isolation for household members of a position case?

@PepsiHoover there isn't a perfect solution / scenario but I feel like we have gone from one extreme -and sometimes overzealous restrictions - to none at all. I think household isolations should probably have remained (with financial support where necessary) as this summer I know a few families locally where Covid has worked its way through the household during the isolation period (including the double vaccinated) but the other household members didn't test positive until days later.

@Imnothereforthedrama you are right it is early to panic! After two academic years with periods of wfh including long homeschooling episodes I just don't trust the Gov won't do it to us again!

I don't think a lot of people realise how few ITU beds there actually are across the country. The biggest issue currently is the impact on all non-covid treatments as planned surgeries can't go ahead without available ITU beds (and the staff, most importantly).

Not sure what the solution is though as covid is not going away and we can't have a lockdown every autumn/winter time.

@nordica precisely, capacity of ventilator beds is the biggest issue we face. It doesn't matter how many cases we have if they are not hospitalised (long Covid aside).

By Christmas day 2020 many parts of the country were in restrictions and at that point there were 'only' 1616 on ventilators. I realise many people were far more vulnerable to Covid at that stage but school and Uni restarting this month plus returns to work / indoors activities are really going to bump the cases (and a proportion are going to need ventilator beds)

Would be interesting to hear how health Trusts are faring? Would be very reassuring to have Whitty or the new head of the NHS come out and give some facts and figures to reassure that it's in hand and the numbers are manageable.

I think whole households should still isolate if one or more people test positive. Stopping this isolation is a huge mistake in my eyes especially as everything is open now and schools are going back. I don't feel comfortable knowing my children could be (probably will be at some point) sitting next to a child in class who's parents, siblings or another person they live with are covid positive. It seems ridiculous to me!! The government are making a big mistake and just letting the virus run wild which could possibly overwhelm the NHS and lead to more school closures or lockdowns which noone wants.

On October 31st 2020 there were 1004 covid patients in mechanical ventilation beds.

On October 19th 2020 there were 7334 covid patients in U.K. hospitals.

On October 11th 2020 there were 824 patients admitted with covid.

So it's feeling very October 2020 to me right now.

....except that most adults are vaccinated now. Whivh is somewhat significant.

This is life now. Covid isnt going away. This is now life.

It means that every year until we establish immunity to it (if we even ever do) there will be a few thousand sick people on ventilators. We need to put money into new hospitals wards to handle it. That's really all that can be done now.

Zero covid is a myth. There wont be zero covid anywhere. This is it now.

We can hope with an extensive, world wide vaccination programme every year before winter, that we can keep serious illness to a minimum.

I agree op, it feels we are not in a great place.

We didnt have vaccines last October. It's not comparable.

The vaccines are very important and if they dont make a change then we are truly truly fucked for all time. So let's hope they stop deaths and see how it pans out.

Either way worrying changes nothing at all.

At no point this year have deaths risen exponentially with the exponential case number increases. Surely that tells us vaccines are changing covid outcomes?

Where I work every single intubated patient is a vaccine refuser.

EVERY SINGLE ONE.

We can’t justify punishing children to protect adults who have chosen not to protect themselves.

@Pinkfluffyunicornsandrainbows

I think whole households should still isolate if one or more people test positive. Stopping this isolation is a huge mistake in my eyes especially as everything is open now and schools are going back. I don't feel comfortable knowing my children could be (probably will be at some point) sitting next to a child in class who's parents, siblings or another person they live with are covid positive. It seems ridiculous to me!! The government are making a big mistake and just letting the virus run wild which could possibly overwhelm the NHS and lead to more school closures or lockdowns which noone wants.

I totally agree. Forgot masks and hand sanitizers, this surely is one of the most effective ways of tackling this.

@TheWoleb that's the issue, a few thousand sick people on ventilators doesn't sound much for a population of 67million but it necessitates the country going into lockdown to protect essential services on the NHS. The most patients on ventilators was 4,077 on 24th Jan and due to that number children weren't in school from mid December until March & businesses were closed for months.

They really need to visit the money tree they found last year and invest in the NHS (and state schools too!)

In 2020 it took 11 weeks from the official end of lockdown on August 1st until there were over 1000 covid patients in ventilated beds.

In 2021 it took 6 weeks from the official end of Lockdown on July 19th until there were over 1000 covid patients in ventilated beds.

You're right OP.

Not sure what the solution is but it doesn't bode well.
And yes I'm aware that there are vaccinations now.
But that doesn't still take away from the fact that there are so many on mechanical ventilation.

I will echo what a pp said though
Only 3 of our ITU patients are double vaxxed.
All the others haven't had their vaccines.

@PrincessNutNuts It gets hard to remember what happened & when but wasn't there still the rule of 6 last summer? Plus only 2 households staying together? So lockdown didn't 'end' in the way it has now.

I think it depends where you are in a wave of cases too. The Kent variant hadn't emerged until late Autumn 2020.In July this year restrictions were lessened in the midst of Delta (and the daily cases in August didn't go as high as modellers predicted following the July lifting of restrictions).

@Onandoff

Where I work every single intubated patient is a vaccine refuser.

EVERY SINGLE ONE.

We can’t justify punishing children to protect adults who have chosen not to protect themselves.

That’s really interesting @Onandoff and hopefully a very good sign that the vaccines are working.

@Onandoff

Where I work every single intubated patient is a vaccine refuser.

EVERY SINGLE ONE.

We can’t justify punishing children to protect adults who have chosen not to protect themselves.

It’s not just people, who don’t want to protect themselves. I am already chronically ill and disabled. On top of this, I have had so many side effects from the second jab that if I have to have the vaccine every year, I may as well book a place at DIGNITAS as my life won’t be worth living.

Really interesting to hear from NHS staff, thank you. Message really is get vaccinated for your own sake as well as everyone elses.

I have tested positive and my unvaccinated kids are due back at school next week - it's madness. I think perhaps another PCR for them at the weekend but why is this not policy?

@PrincessNutNuts

In 2020 it took 11 weeks from the official end of lockdown on August 1st until there were over 1000 covid patients in ventilated beds.

In 2021 it took 6 weeks from the official end of Lockdown on July 19th until there were over 1000 covid patients in ventilated beds.

This is disingenuous. You’re not comparing like with like. The end of lockdown on August 1st last year was more like the restrictions that were lifted much earlier on this year, and what we’ve been living with for months. There was no ending to mask wearing last year and no total lifting of restrictions. There is far more freedom this year than last.

We're in a worse position than we were last year but our government still have their heads in the fucking sand.

It's beggar's belief.

@IncessantNameChanger

We didnt have vaccines last October. It's not comparable.

The vaccines are very important and if they dont make a change then we are truly truly fucked for all time. So let's hope they stop deaths and see how it pans out.

Either way worrying changes nothing at all.

At no point this year have deaths risen exponentially with the exponential case number increases. Surely that tells us vaccines are changing covid outcomes?

We didn't have Delta last October.

I'll go through the maths one last time:

The R0 of Original Covid was approximately 3. Alpha was approximately 60% more transmissible than Original Covid, and Delta is approximately 60% more transmissible than Alpha.

So Delta has an R0 of approximately 3 1.6 1.6 = 7.68.

64% of the UK population are vaccinated, and generously assuming that vaccines give 80% protection, the current R for the UK is

7.68 0.64 (1 - 0.80) + 7.68 (1 - 0.64) 1 = 3.75.

So Delta + vaccines is (3.75 / 3 - 1) * 100 = 25% more transmissible than Original Covid.

And this is before taking into account waning immunity.

We need restrictions.