1000+ in ventilator beds already & school return with no household isolation

[RumblyMumbly]

Number of people in ventilator beds 1,014 on 31/08/21

It has been a steady / manageable rise since restrictions lifted in mid May when there were 125 patients in ventilator beds & while obviously awful for the people affected and their families this means the NHS has coped while there has been a lot of Covid cases

Does anyone else feel we may be at the tipping point? Schools in England mostly return this week for Autumn term.

If we compare with last years school return there were only 71 ventilator beds occupied on 31/08/20. Yes, we now have 64% of the total population double vaccinated which puts us in a far better situation than last year when the population had no protection. However, we had household isolations this time last year for positive cases, this year other household members of a positive case will be attending school and workplaces alongside everyone else and generally people will begin meeting indoors much more over the next few months.

Purpose of my post - nervousness about what will happen next...I don't want schools to close at all, children have already had 2 years of disrupted education. But to give my own personal experience - obviously other peoples differ - secondary remote learning can work if absolutely necessary (full schedule of lessons / homework) but primary remote learning (1hr lesson per day) did not work AT ALL & the vast majority of primary aged children are not ready to become independent learners while parents are in an impossible situation as they can't work and moonlight as a teacher.

I hope SAGE / the Government are watching the figures very closely and if we need a circuit breaker in October to keep the NHS manageable they act fast.

@TableFlowerss the point is I'm getting on with my life and want to be able to keep doing so, without another lockdown because the NHS gets overwhelmed

Thankfully people aren’t terrified anymore so yes there may be 1000 people on ventilators but there’s hundreds of thousands of people that have had covid so of course statistically a small percentage of them will require support

If that small proportion reaches 2,000-2,500 on ventilators the Gov will call a lockdown which takes months before they lift restrictions again. I just want an official update from the NHS on how its coping, would prefer not to sleepwalk into crisis (again)

@Cyrsethatballoon

NannyAndJohn

We're in a worse position than we were last year but our government still have their heads in the fucking sand.

It's beggar's belief.

and it beggars belief that you still won't concede that we now have vaccines? You really are quite something

Yes we have vaccines.

Despite the massive advantage vaccines give us, look where we are already.

7598 in hospital

1014 in mechanical ventilation beds.

In August, with schools closed.

On June 30th those numbers were 1821 and 287 respectively.

Which is getting on for two doublings in 9 weeks.

Will these numbers double twice in the next 9 weeks?

I dunno.

What's going to stop that from happening?

[quote RumblyMumbly]@TableFlowerss the point is I'm getting on with my life and want to be able to keep doing so, without another lockdown because the NHS gets overwhelmed

Thankfully people aren’t terrified anymore so yes there may be 1000 people on ventilators but there’s hundreds of thousands of people that have had covid so of course statistically a small percentage of them will require support

If that small proportion reaches 2,000-2,500 on ventilators the Gov will call a lockdown which takes months before they lift restrictions again. I just want an official update from the NHS on how its coping, would prefer not to sleepwalk into crisis (again)[/quote]
I really don’t think they will ever call another lockdown. They might re-introduce masks but there’s nothing more that can be done from their point of view.

This is the new normal. Young fit healthy people don’t end up on ventilators, that’s the top and bottom of it.

People die all the time. We can’t live forever and given the fact that the average age of a person dying of covid was older than the average life expectancy, they are justified to say we’ve done what we can.

Where do we draw the line? Lockdown one more time? Two more times? 12,50?…. Do we stop people driving to prevent fatalities from crashes? Do we shut all fast food restaurants to help prevent obesity, heart disease, stroke?

Should we ban alcohol? cigarets? because there’s thousands of preventable deaths if you done that?

Everyone will have to risk assess their own situations. If some teachers are that worried then they’ll have to leave.

[quote RumblyMumbly]@TableFlowerss the point is I'm getting on with my life and want to be able to keep doing so, without another lockdown because the NHS gets overwhelmed

Thankfully people aren’t terrified anymore so yes there may be 1000 people on ventilators but there’s hundreds of thousands of people that have had covid so of course statistically a small percentage of them will require support

If that small proportion reaches 2,000-2,500 on ventilators the Gov will call a lockdown which takes months before they lift restrictions again. I just want an official update from the NHS on how its coping, would prefer not to sleepwalk into crisis (again)[/quote]
On November 1st 2020 there were 978 patients in ventilation beds.

On January 1st, 2021, there were 2162.

I think your estimate is correct, combined with a corresponding number in hospital with Covid.

On November 1st that was number was only 12,230.

But that Lockdown was called primarily to save Christmas shopping.

The effective R number in the UK is nowhere near 3.75, @NannyAndJohn. It is still hovering around 1 but it varies by location.

You can't calculate the effective R number like that, it is far too simplistic. You aren't taking into account that over 90% of people in the UK have antibodies from infection or vaccination nor that people are still modifying their behaviour, social distancing, having less contacts than they used to eg WFH.

Your maths is wrong but the R0 of the Delta variant is about twice that of the original virus, so you are right, things are very different. The same restrictions will have less effect. The effect of the vaccine is counteracted by the Delta variant being more transmissible.

Unfortunately, I think this is about as good as it is going to get.

@SerenadeOfTheSchoolRun

I have tested positive and my unvaccinated kids are due back at school next week - it's madness. I think perhaps another PCR for them at the weekend but why is this not policy?

@SerenadeOfTheSchoolRun Last year you would have been completely piled on for being completely irresponsible sending children into school when you have Covid, it's crazy it's now national policy.

Hope you have a quick recovery.

UK Covid deaths within 28 days of first positive test:

Between March 3rd 2020 and August 3rd 2020 - 41,399

Between March 3rd 2021 and August 3rd 2021 - 5,544

An approximately 85% reduction in the number of deaths.

Source
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

@PrincessNutNuts

Bright pink squares are covid deaths in the 0-9 age group.

Orange squares are covid deaths in the 10-19 age group,

Green are 20-29 deaths

Red are 30-39

Purple are 40-49, and so on.

The bright pink squares are Covid deaths in the 60-69 age group NOT the 0-9 age group. Your post should be removed immediately.

@TableFlowerss the Gov didn't want to call the previous lockdowns but had to in order to protect the NHS (so that it could continue offering ICU beds to people in RTAs or with other conditions for example) if those ventilator beds are filled up with Covid patients (whatever their age) they can't perform routine surgeries etc.

I think there would be a lot less personal compliance but if the NHS hasn't got the ICU beds they would have to introduce signifcant measures /lockdown as there isn't really another option

@PrincessNutNuts

Bright pink squares are covid deaths in the 0-9 age group.

Orange squares are covid deaths in the 10-19 age group,

Green are 20-29 deaths

Red are 30-39

Purple are 40-49, and so on.

You’ve made a clanger of a mistake with your colours there…..

[quote RumblyMumbly]@TableFlowerss the Gov didn't want to call the previous lockdowns but had to in order to protect the NHS (so that it could continue offering ICU beds to people in RTAs or with other conditions for example) if those ventilator beds are filled up with Covid patients (whatever their age) they can't perform routine surgeries etc.

I think there would be a lot less personal compliance but if the NHS hasn't got the ICU beds they would have to introduce signifcant measures /lockdown as there isn't really another option[/quote]
If it did come to that then they would decide who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t. They aren’t going to turn away a healthy 45 year old, who’s been in an accident and needs a ventilator……. They’d remove someone that wasn’t making good progress, but hopefully it won’t ever come to that.

And majority of those aren't vaccinated either because they refused it, or are too young to have it.

I guess we’re about to take a step into the unknown and find out whether or not we can actually ‘live with Covid’, as in function as a society. Safely.

The dismissal of future lockdowns is too premature at this stage. As others have said, there comes a point when the numbers are simply stacked against us and we can not afford to not lockdown.

The coming issue will be getting the public back onboard with being cautious and accepting restrictions once they’re needed.

I think it is reasonable to assume localised restrictions will start popping up as hotspots start to emerge in the coming weeks. We’ll hobble along with these similar to the tiers last year until National measures need to be taken.

Furlough will be back regardless of if we can afford it or not.

[quote PamelaGotown]UK Covid deaths within 28 days of first positive test:

Between March 3rd 2020 and August 3rd 2020 - 41,399

Between March 3rd 2021 and August 3rd 2021 - 5,544

An approximately 85% reduction in the number of deaths.

Source
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths[/quote]
I'm not sure what point you're making, but

2020: 76,446 covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

2021: 56,296.

But there are four months of prime covid season left to go.

Covid deaths only need to average 166 a day for the rest of the year for this year's death toll to be worse than last year's.

Allowing covid to spread largely unimpeded in the community and allowing it unrestricted access to millions of unvaccinated people in schools arguably puts us in a worse position than at this "back to school" point last year.

It's concerning that the numbers in hospital and the numbers in ventilated beds are this high, this early, with English schools closed.

Two doublings would put us close to January 2021 numbers.

No, @PamelaGotown, bright pink are 0-9, pastel pink are 60-69.

The original post is correct.

@Thewiseoneincognito

I guess we’re about to take a step into the unknown and find out whether or not we can actually ‘live with Covid’, as in function as a society. Safely.

The dismissal of future lockdowns is too premature at this stage. As others have said, there comes a point when the numbers are simply stacked against us and we can not afford to not lockdown.

The coming issue will be getting the public back onboard with being cautious and accepting restrictions once they’re needed.

I think it is reasonable to assume localised restrictions will start popping up as hotspots start to emerge in the coming weeks. We’ll hobble along with these similar to the tiers last year until National measures need to be taken.

Furlough will be back regardless of if we can afford it or not.

I respectfully disagree. Furlough will be extinct. National measures won’t return and even if the government tried to enforce it, people just wouldn’t listen. They’ve had enough.

When the vulnerable are vaccinated they said, then when everyone is vaccinated they said and that’s almost upon us so it’s highly highly unlikely the public will adhere to any kind of lockdown. I think there will be riots if there was even the suggestion of it

Here's a bright pink square.

The squares are in ascending age order and the key is across the top.

If anyone in our household does get it we will all stay home and isolate - just because the rules have changed we'll still be cautious and continue with all the precautions, just as we're still wearing masks and socially distancing.

@NannyAndJohn

No, *@PamelaGotown*, bright pink are 0-9, pastel pink are 60-69.

The original post is correct.

Very true but it could be misinterpreted just by looking at the large pink part. You have to really look at it to see that there are two pinks.

I find it surprising that when they say the number of deaths on a particular day on the news that there is no mention of the % age of people who have died and have not had 1 or 2 vaccinations.
That can’t be a difficult statistic to find out and would be helpful to see how effective the vaccination is.

I can't comprehend it as anything other than a deliberate government effort to infect as many children and young people as possible in a misguided push towards the mythical herd immunity.

1 in 7 children who get covid are still suffering symptoms 12 weeks later. That is not an insignificant public health issue. Not to mention the threat to CEV people of very high general covid circulation.

Why do it?? When there are measures that could easily be maintained - like class bubbles, masks on public transport/in corridors and requiring isolation of household contacts - which would at least repress/contain the spread? Why do we not have HEPA filters (£100) in every classroom? Why aren't we vaccinating teenagers like most of Europe are doing? Why take the brakes off entirely? It's driven by ideology not public health interest. And now Gavin Williamson has the gall to come out and publicly say that parents are responsible for keeping covid levels in check. What possible action can we take, short of refusing to send our children in to unsafe environments?

My prediction is stratospheric covid levels amongst the young by October half term, and large numbers affected with long covid.

@TableFlowerss

respectfully, you’re misguided if you believe the public would accept a crippled health system in the thick of winter coupled with disrupted food deliveries and essential services. They will be calling out for a lockdown at the first signs of trouble.

I appreciate that reversing course would be a hard pill to swallow but living with Covid untamed and surviving is much much harder.

Where I work all the patients in icu are unvaccinated. Sadly, a lot of them are also pregnant. In my old job on an ecmo unit in my last week 2 weeks ago we had 17 patients on ecmo 10 were pregnant. It is harrowing. The vaccines make such a difference

In my new job to be started soon, I've had a read of the covid policy and it's so confusing. The trust I work for is listening to the government guidance about isolation, but the ward I work on will be doing differently because we have Children and babies on chemo,

can you imagine going into work with a baby having a bone marrow transplant if someone in my house had tested post for covid? Would you want your child to be exposed like that ?

I'm glad they're being sensible, I just hope it won't affect sick entitlement