1000+ in ventilator beds already & school return with no household isolation

[RumblyMumbly]

Number of people in ventilator beds 1,014 on 31/08/21

It has been a steady / manageable rise since restrictions lifted in mid May when there were 125 patients in ventilator beds & while obviously awful for the people affected and their families this means the NHS has coped while there has been a lot of Covid cases

Does anyone else feel we may be at the tipping point? Schools in England mostly return this week for Autumn term.

If we compare with last years school return there were only 71 ventilator beds occupied on 31/08/20. Yes, we now have 64% of the total population double vaccinated which puts us in a far better situation than last year when the population had no protection. However, we had household isolations this time last year for positive cases, this year other household members of a positive case will be attending school and workplaces alongside everyone else and generally people will begin meeting indoors much more over the next few months.

Purpose of my post - nervousness about what will happen next...I don't want schools to close at all, children have already had 2 years of disrupted education. But to give my own personal experience - obviously other peoples differ - secondary remote learning can work if absolutely necessary (full schedule of lessons / homework) but primary remote learning (1hr lesson per day) did not work AT ALL & the vast majority of primary aged children are not ready to become independent learners while parents are in an impossible situation as they can't work and moonlight as a teacher.

I hope SAGE / the Government are watching the figures very closely and if we need a circuit breaker in October to keep the NHS manageable they act fast.

@Explosivefarts

But masks are still a requirement in Scotland and it hasn’t stopped it ripping through the school.

Quite, it's almost as if wee bits of paper and cloth make zero difference.

The reason it's going through schools like a dose of salts is because most kids aren't vaccinated. But also (and I'm in Scotland where our kids have been back for 3 weeks) the people in my kids school who are getting Covid are not "unwell". Couple of days feeling a bit rough, isolate for 10, back to school.

If kids take it home to adults who have chosen not to be vaccinated then that's on those adults to sort themselves out, rather than closing schools.

Cannot eliminate Covid, cannot get zero covid, time to live with it now.

@Thisisworsethananticpated

I’m in the keep on camp Paying for more ventilators is still cheaper than another round of lockdown , furlough etc

Who is going to look after the patients on vents though? There aren't enough staff!

Paying for more ventilators is still cheaper than another round of lockdown , furlough etc

Agree, there really is so winning situation unfortunately.

We could choose a better policy that doesn't leave thousands of kids unnecessarily harmed. What we already know about neurological impacts and long covid is scary enough, but some people just refer to the initial 'sniffles' of a few days for lots of kids. Long covid doesn't work like that though, neither do the neurological impacts - they occur in mild and severe cases. I think sending kids in without even addressing non-intrusive impacts such as ventilation is sickening. We can 'live' with it and have a policy to reduce risk. We don't know long term impacts of organ damage through covid etc. Vaccines are great, but they are not enough on their own. Kids don't even have vaccine.

@AlwaysLatte

If anyone in our household does get it we will all stay home and isolate - just because the rules have changed we'll still be cautious and continue with all the precautions, just as we're still wearing masks and socially distancing.

That’s ok if your employer allows. I can’t see my husbands work agreeing to him having 10 days off when he doesn’t have too.

*non intrusive mitigations not impacts

"**Paying for more ventilators is still cheaper than another round of lockdown , furlough et"

Ignorance is bliss eh.
Who is going to look after these vented patients?

I'm double vaccinated and CEV and have tested positive for covid. I also had covid last year in April/May but much more severely so I'm guessing the vaccine has helped this time as although I'm still breathless, etc, it's not as bad as last year when I couldn't move or speak because I was so breathless.

I don't think we should have more lockdowns, they're crippling the country and running a lot of dc's education as well as people's mental health suffering.
We're never going to have 0 covid so we need to learn to live with it.

*ruining

I think the message after reading this is to vaccinate everyone who is able too. I think 12-15 yr olds need to be done imminently, the JCVI (?) need to approve it. Many other countries have already begun to vaccinate theirs. I don’t know realistically what those who are CEV should do, but people who can be vaccinated but choose not to be well they’ll just have to take their chances with Covid.

@Hadenoughcrap2 explain to us what "learning to live with covid" looks like in your opinion. Take hospitals for instance. How should they function going forward?

@Onandoff

Where I work every single intubated patient is a vaccine refuser.

EVERY SINGLE ONE.

We can’t justify punishing children to protect adults who have chosen not to protect themselves.

I wonder how long people will tolerate this. Surely there will come a time when vaccine refusers will be billed for their hospital care? Not those who cannot safely be vaccinated but the tedious anti-vaxxers.

I accepted the need for lockdowns to protect the public and particularly the elderly and vunerable.

I do not accept lockdowns to protect people who refuse to be vaccinated because of jews/aliens/5g/Bill Gates etc.

I work in a hospital and I've seen the effect of Covid on my department (not ICU but clinical staff diverted to ICU which effectively shut the department down). That can't go on for ever.

If people refuse to be vaccinated then they need to take responsibility for that choice. When there are no more ventilators and the ICUs are full they go to the back of the queue. If that means they don't get treated and (I don't enjoy saying this) die then it's their choice.

Their body, their decision, their consequences.

Surely there will come a time when vaccine refusers will be billed for their hospital care?

Super idea. Shall we also bill alcoholics, drug addicts, people who sky-dive, people who ski, fat people, women who continue high-risk pregnancies?

Don’t forget we were told by the experts that they fully expected daily infections to reach 100k following the easing of restrictions in mid July - it didn’t happen. Cases are holding steady and most positive cases are picked up by testing - not because they are ill.

There was also all the money and resourcing spent on the ultimately unused Nightingale hospitals which have been wound down with no future plans to reopen them.

Covid is now endemic in the population. It’s no longer helpful having the media report daily figures as they’re now meaningless and only serve to cause unnecessary anxiety.

Worth noting that because the press has a new bone to chew on in Afghanistan, Covid has slipped down the fear lost too.

@QueenofKattegat

Surely there will come a time when vaccine refusers will be billed for their hospital care?

Super idea. Shall we also bill alcoholics, drug addicts, people who sky-dive, people who ski, fat people, women who continue high-risk pregnancies?

I think you'll find that in practise alcoholics, smokers (particularly smokers) and many other people with unhealthy lifestyles are already at the back of the queue for medical procedures.

Not to mention.

Drink alcohol? Pay tax.
Smoke? Pay tax.
Sky-dive? Get insurance.

I take your point, but there really isn't a new principle of being established here.

Also - there's a difference between pursuing a lifestyle which has a higher chance of requiring medical support and downright refusing free medical help when offered it.

@QueenofKattegat

Surely there will come a time when vaccine refusers will be billed for their hospital care?

Super idea. Shall we also bill alcoholics, drug addicts, people who sky-dive, people who ski, fat people, women who continue high-risk pregnancies?

But they are not the same at all. Addiction is a mental illness, so is obesity. There are no easy preventative measures that can be offered to these, unlike with coronavirus 19.

A very knee-jerk and ill thought-through reaction from you.

@50ShadesOfCatholic but the point is that the NHS is a free healthcare service for all. I too think it's ridiculous that people haven't had the vaccine but once we start turning people away from hospital for their choices, then it's a very slippery slope to an American model of healthcare service.

[quote rookiemere]@50ShadesOfCatholic but the point is that the NHS is a free healthcare service for all. I too think it's ridiculous that people haven't had the vaccine but once we start turning people away from hospital for their choices, then it's a very slippery slope to an American model of healthcare service.[/quote]
Yes I completely understand that. It just seems so absurd and infuriating that so many ICU beds are taken up so needlessly.

[quote rookiemere]@50ShadesOfCatholic but the point is that the NHS is a free healthcare service for all. I too think it's ridiculous that people haven't had the vaccine but once we start turning people away from hospital for their choices, then it's a very slippery slope to an American model of healthcare service.[/quote]
Yes it could be the start of a slippery slope.

But locking people down for months in their homes could also be the start of a slippery slope.

There are no good options here, but in a world of finite resources and seemingly infinite stupidity I prefer the "slipperly slope" that makes people take responsibility for ignoring doctors rather than inflict the consequences of their choices onto the rest of us.

Number of people in ventilator beds 1,014 on 31/08/21

I assume this is for England, which means less than one person per hospital is on a ventilator.

I agree but the reality is that in a civilised society we can't leave someone to die because they're stupid.

If it's genuinely only the unvaccinated in ICU then government messaging should be making more of this.

@Whatever9999

64% of the UK population are vaccinated, and generously assuming that vaccines give 80% protection, the current R for the UK is

7.68 0.64 (1 - 0.80) + 7.68 (1 - 0.64) 1 = 3.75

@NannyAndJohn
Only according to the government website the r rate is currently 1-1.1 in England and thats with no (or at least very few) restrictions, so how are you explaining that?

Schools are the main thing.

Scotland's have been back for a while now and cases have been doubling every week. That puts their R rate in line with what I've calculated.

Expect the rest of the UK to follow suit.

Also take into account that some of us are still being socially responsible and sticking to masks, SD, and essential journeys only.

@rookiemere

I agree but the reality is that in a civilised society we can't leave someone to die because they're stupid.

If it's genuinely only the unvaccinated in ICU then government messaging should be making more of this.

Yes but in a civilised society we shouldn't be stopping kids from going to school. In a civilised society we shouldn't be delaying cancer patients chemo because the doctors in the Oncology department have been transferred to ICU.

It's all about choices and sometimes no choice is good.

As for the government making more of this, how much more messaging can any government do to get people to take vaccines?

I know three anti-vaxxers and they are so far up their arses with conspiracy theories they don't believe a word the government or anyone in the "lamestream" media has to say. They are literally beyond reason.