1000+ in ventilator beds already & school return with no household isolation

[RumblyMumbly]

Number of people in ventilator beds 1,014 on 31/08/21

It has been a steady / manageable rise since restrictions lifted in mid May when there were 125 patients in ventilator beds & while obviously awful for the people affected and their families this means the NHS has coped while there has been a lot of Covid cases

Does anyone else feel we may be at the tipping point? Schools in England mostly return this week for Autumn term.

If we compare with last years school return there were only 71 ventilator beds occupied on 31/08/20. Yes, we now have 64% of the total population double vaccinated which puts us in a far better situation than last year when the population had no protection. However, we had household isolations this time last year for positive cases, this year other household members of a positive case will be attending school and workplaces alongside everyone else and generally people will begin meeting indoors much more over the next few months.

Purpose of my post - nervousness about what will happen next...I don't want schools to close at all, children have already had 2 years of disrupted education. But to give my own personal experience - obviously other peoples differ - secondary remote learning can work if absolutely necessary (full schedule of lessons / homework) but primary remote learning (1hr lesson per day) did not work AT ALL & the vast majority of primary aged children are not ready to become independent learners while parents are in an impossible situation as they can't work and moonlight as a teacher.

I hope SAGE / the Government are watching the figures very closely and if we need a circuit breaker in October to keep the NHS manageable they act fast.

How are we in a worse position @NannyAndJohn? Don’t you think the vaccines are working?

@NannyAndJohn - it doesn’t matter how many cases of covid we have though, it’s only hospitalisations/ deaths we need to look at.

@TheWoleb

This is life now. Covid isnt going away. This is now life.

It means that every year until we establish immunity to it (if we even ever do) there will be a few thousand sick people on ventilators. We need to put money into new hospitals wards to handle it. That's really all that can be done now.

Zero covid is a myth. There wont be zero covid anywhere. This is it now.

We can hope with an extensive, world wide vaccination programme every year before winter, that we can keep serious illness to a minimum.

This.

The govt need to hang their head in shame that they’ve not seriously increased permanent icu capacity in the last 18 months, not even made a start towards it as far as I can see.

@PrincessNutNuts

In 2020 it took 11 weeks from the official end of lockdown on August 1st until there were over 1000 covid patients in ventilated beds.

In 2021 it took 6 weeks from the official end of Lockdown on July 19th until there were over 1000 covid patients in ventilated beds.

You've compared the use of ventilated beds that occurred between the first and second waves, with their use during the third wave. It's hardly the greatest revelation that Covid patients require treatment in ventilated beds at a faster rate during a wave, than they do when there isn't a wave at all.

That's kind of my point @SleepyMathematician.

This year we have the vaccines.

But also Delta.

Even with the excellent vaccines the current covid strategy is not enough to contain the spread of Delta.

Which is why the numbers are almost at "start of Lockdown 2" level already.

In August.

Before schools go back.

“ At no point this year have deaths risen exponentially with the exponential case number increases. Surely that tells us vaccines are changing covid outcomes?”

It frustrates me that people still don’t understand what exponentially means.

Deaths and hospitalisations have risen exponentially in line with cases every single time.

They’re doing it at lower levels now but it’s still exponential.

The link is weakened not broken

I think that remote learning can work for kids in high school . Our school were fantastic. My kids were lucky enough to have desks and desktops in their bedrooms. Trouble is this isn’t the case for everyone . Some schools were awful. With next to nothing provided when it came to work. Some kids were sharing a iPad between between siblings . Some kids have younger siblings so can’t get work done. The only place for children right now is school .

@PamelaGotown

The second wave officially began in the first week of September 2020.

Matt Hancock announced it.

Then two weeks later on September 21st 2020 Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance went on tv with their "graph of doom" and said we'd be at 200 deaths a day by November.

And we were.

So I'm comparing the early days of the second wave with the even earlier days of the fourth wave, I think.

@Wildewoodz

“ At no point this year have deaths risen exponentially with the exponential case number increases. Surely that tells us vaccines are changing covid outcomes?”

It frustrates me that people still don’t understand what exponentially means.

Deaths and hospitalisations have risen exponentially in line with cases every single time.

They’re doing it at lower levels now but it’s still exponential.

The link is weakened not broken

Yes.

Thank you.

I really don’t want another lockdown but I do think we need to bring back masks, distancing and isolation and invest heavily in ventilation. Perhaps isolation rules could be more lenient involving PCR tests to have less effect on education etc.

@Inastatus

How are we in a worse position *@NannyAndJohn*? Don’t you think the vaccines are working?

They are.

The government's covid strategy isn't though.

The govt need to hang their head in shame that they’ve not seriously increased permanent icu capacity in the last 18 months, not even made a start towards it as far as I can see.

The problem is staffing. You can't train an ICU nurse in 18 months. Thanks to Brexit a lot of staff has also left the UK, and others are off due to long covid, exhaustion and other health issues after the year they've had. Add to that the huge backlog of planned surgeries and there's very little space and staff to fit everyone in, especially as covid wards of course need to be separate from everything else.

I think the fact there’s only 31 responses on this thread in 5.5 hours (and many of them are yours OP) indicates that people are just getting on with their life and quite right.

Thankfully people aren’t terrified anymore so yes there may be 1000 people on ventilators but there’s hundreds of thousands of people that have had covid so of course statistically a small percentage of them will require support.

Vulnerable people end up on ventilators with the flu….

But masks are still a requirement in Scotland and it hasn’t stopped it ripping through the school.

@Daisydoor12

Definitely not calling for another lockdown however it seems yet again the government are walking blind into Autumn with the warning sirens ringing very loudly. For a start why not keep bubbles in school to minimise contacts and Isolation for household members of a position case?

Because kids don’t get a proper education stuck in a classroom with other kids that are on completely different educational levels as them. It’s a complete fuck up and not fair to prevent them getting the education everyone else has had.

Kids can’t be expected to lose out academically and socially for years for something that hardly affects them!

3 out of how many, carrot ?

@RumblyMumbly

Really interesting to hear from NHS staff, thank you. Message really is get vaccinated for your own sake as well as everyone elses.

Over 19% of the population doesn't have that option currently.

Masks a requirement in Wales our figures are much higher than last year but we are testing a lot more very few deaths and I think far fewer ventilated.

@TheWoleb

This is life now. Covid isnt going away. This is now life.

It means that every year until we establish immunity to it (if we even ever do) there will be a few thousand sick people on ventilators. We need to put money into new hospitals wards to handle it. That's really all that can be done now.

Zero covid is a myth. There wont be zero covid anywhere. This is it now.

We can hope with an extensive, world wide vaccination programme every year before winter, that we can keep serious illness to a minimum.

The sooner people accept this is now reality the better!

@Wildewoodz

I really don’t want another lockdown but I do think we need to bring back masks, distancing and isolation and invest heavily in ventilation. Perhaps isolation rules could be more lenient involving PCR tests to have less effect on education etc.

We'll have to bring all effective NPIs back in order to avoid another lockdown.

I agree that class bubbles and household isolations should be maintained at least until we are through the winter term .

It's absolutely insane parents are expected to send children into this environment and grossly unfair on school staff and teachers.
I still feel there's a case for giving parents who'd be willing to do so the element of choice to ease the impact of schools returning by keeping their children at home if they're able to.

NannyAndJohn

We're in a worse position than we were last year but our government still have their heads in the fucking sand.

It's beggar's belief.

and it beggars belief that you still won't concede that we now have vaccines? You really are quite something

@SerenadeOfTheSchoolRun

I have tested positive and my unvaccinated kids are due back at school next week - it's madness. I think perhaps another PCR for them at the weekend but why is this not policy?

It is utter and complete madness if our government's covid strategy is intended to keep schools and businesses open, and protect the British people.

Which, after all, is the government's first duty.

@nordica

The govt need to hang their head in shame that they’ve not seriously increased permanent icu capacity in the last 18 months, not even made a start towards it as far as I can see.

The problem is staffing. You can't train an ICU nurse in 18 months. Thanks to Brexit a lot of staff has also left the UK, and others are off due to long covid, exhaustion and other health issues after the year they've had. Add to that the huge backlog of planned surgeries and there's very little space and staff to fit everyone in, especially as covid wards of course need to be separate from everything else.

This It amazes me how short sighted people are that they think everything can’t be fixed so easily

@TableFlowerss

I think the fact there’s only 31 responses on this thread in 5.5 hours (and many of them are yours OP) indicates that people are just getting on with their life and quite right.

Thankfully people aren’t terrified anymore so yes there may be 1000 people on ventilators but there’s hundreds of thousands of people that have had covid so of course statistically a small percentage of them will require support.

Vulnerable people end up on ventilators with the flu….

Or it doesn’t impact them, yet, so they don’t care