Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

@FourTeaFallOut,

He is definitely reputable, but virtually all his pieces have been ‘school closure sceptic’.

I am dubious that he has good data behind the 40%. Based on publicly available data and anecdote, I struggle to believe 40% of children have had COVID (and even that assumes 100% still have antibodies).

The Imperial React study is ongoing at the moment where, I believe, they will actually systematically test children over 12 for antibodies. Hopefully we will see those results soon.

How about this then? I'll make this my last gambit at being helpful

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-latest-fortnightly-release-on-the-coronavirus-infection-survey-looking-at-antibody-and-vaccination-data-for-the-uk-21-july-2021/

If you go to the expert analysis byProf Kevin McConway, looking at the Covid-19 Infection Survey - the data from 28 June-4 July - which predates the wide scale vaccination of this group - for those outside cev groups - who highlights the antibody level in this group to 40% ish.

And on that note I'm going to stop wandering about the internet like a housebound bored Columbo.

^^ for 16-17 year olds, which is the youngest age group studies here.

We've had so many cases each day for so long now - with a population in this country of 5.5 million surely herd immunity must kick in soon alongside the high vaccination uptake. I can't see how these numbers can continue indefinitely anyway? Or is the immunity so short lived from both that they are basically ineffective anyway?

@liveforsummer

We've had so many cases each day for so long now - with a population in this country of 5.5 million surely herd immunity must kick in soon alongside the high vaccination uptake. I can't see how these numbers can continue indefinitely anyway? Or is the immunity so short lived from both that they are basically ineffective anyway?

My understanding is that herd immunity is impossible because people can be re-infected.

@liveforsummer that's what I'm thinking too. I'm absolutely no expert but the number of infections seems to have plateaued which might mean something? I don't know what though...

@Amboseli our local area has risen again following schools returning after being high for months spring and early summer before schools broke up too - I'm in Scotland, it's only a small country with a small population - 5.5 million compared to nearly 9 million in London alone. This is just the known cases but we are being told (and often discovering) that asymptomatic cases are common too so actual case numbers must be even higher. All these sky high case number each day for months and moving in to years, the maths just doesn't seem to add up. I've not heard much reported about people being reinfected yet but maybe that's starting now if immunity is wearing off. I admit to not really reading the news about it anymore (just hear the headlines with the daily updates on numbers)

@liveforsummer I don't follow the news either anymore, just catch bits and pieces here and there.

I think herd immunity is only achieved at around 96% immune either through vaccination or infection. But that's going to be impossible as immunity is not long lasting.

As far as I can tell there doesn't seem to be an exponential rise in cases which must be due to a certain level of immunity.

Once schools go back infections will rise but then might plateau again but at a higher level and realistically that might be the level we'll have to live with long term along with the associated number of deaths and hospitalisations.

But really I have no idea so anything I say needs to be taken with a large sack of salt!

I'm really not sure what use restrictions would be now anyway. Cases are going up in NZ and Aus from tiny numbers despite full lockdown. If we have a starting point of much higher then surely they won't work?

We might just have ride out the peaks and dips!

Mitigations are always useful and we should still have them, restrictions maybe less so here in the UK where we have already fucked it up royally.

Restrictions definitely worth it in NZ and Aus, they are in an entirely different place.

@lannistunut yes there it makes sense, they need to keep cases down while the vaccinate but trickier here. And would put people off across the world from taking the jab - get your vaccine but still live with restrictions!

@cantkeepawayforever

My understanding is that herd immunity is impossible because people can be re-infected.

Herd immunity equating to elimination is impossible in that we'll never eliminate it because immunity will wane... but if you've been infected, you'll remain immune for a while, at least 6 months, more likely 1-2 years, whereupon you'll likely still have residual immunity so that you're second infection will be far less bad.

The only way to ride this is to let the vast majority acquire immunity through infection and/or vaccination to dampen the impact of future waves. Suppression at this stage just delays the inevitable.

let the vast majority acquire immunity through infection

This would be fine if it wasn't dangerous and unethical, with high costs in terms of disability and long term illness.

The worst of it is because we have an absolute monster for a PM, the people he is risking most is children, who really can't afford a couple of months of school with lingering symptoms.

It is only the absolute total failure of the UK approach that has got us to this point, where people are pretending infecting children is somehow a good plan.

It is wrong wrong wrong.

[quote FourTeaFallOut]How about this then? I'll make this my last gambit at being helpful

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-latest-fortnightly-release-on-the-coronavirus-infection-survey-looking-at-antibody-and-vaccination-data-for-the-uk-21-july-2021/[/quote]
Thanks Four! I think it might have been the additional files in the ons document that he’s referring to that I must have come across. I’ve downloaded them a few times to look at a few things. Phew! I knew I wasn’t going mad!

@lannistunut

let the vast majority acquire immunity through infection

This would be fine if it wasn't dangerous and unethical, with high costs in terms of disability and long term illness.

The worst of it is because we have an absolute monster for a PM, the people he is risking most is children, who really can't afford a couple of months of school with lingering symptoms.

It is only the absolute total failure of the UK approach that has got us to this point, where people are pretending infecting children is somehow a good plan.

It is wrong wrong wrong.

You’ve partly quoted what Warhertisuff said. She did say through infection and/or vaccination. Reinfection seems to be staying low so that’s positive. Even though vaccine immunity seems to be waning after a few months so we’re seeing more breakthrough infections, it’s at least reducing the risk of serious illness/death.

@lannistunut

let the vast majority acquire immunity through infection

This would be fine if it wasn't dangerous and unethical, with high costs in terms of disability and long term illness.

The worst of it is because we have an absolute monster for a PM, the people he is risking most is children, who really can't afford a couple of months of school with lingering symptoms.

It is only the absolute total failure of the UK approach that has got us to this point, where people are pretending infecting children is somehow a good plan.

It is wrong wrong wrong.

The vast majority of children won't be seriously impacted by Covid. The only way to stop most of them and the rest of society getting Covid in the years ahead - given that the current vaccines aren't "sterilising" (ie they don't fully stop infection and transmission) would be to enforce draconian restrictions on society without any realistic hope of reprieve or way out for years and years, potentially decades. That would be disproportionate in the extreme given the level of threat.

@warhertisuff

No, we could vaccinate children to limit the impact of covid when they catch it

You have no idea how it will affect any individual child, we are at 1000 child hospitalisations/month before schools even open.

It's not right that UK children are being put at a far higher risk than our European, American neighbours. UK kids are getting a very poor deal.

[quote lannistunut]@warhertisuff

No, we could vaccinate children to limit the impact of covid when they catch it

You have no idea how it will affect any individual child, we are at 1000 child hospitalisations/month before schools even open.

It's not right that UK children are being put at a far higher risk than our European, American neighbours. UK kids are getting a very poor deal.[/quote]
Nowhere is vaccinating under 12s yet are they? So that's only true for older kids.

I wouldn’t be vaccinating my 8yo even if it was available. I'm reading that vaccine take up for 16-18 is low, so I can't see it being much higher for under 16s.

I meant >12, but some are now looking at

They are now vaccinating 12+ in Germany, France, Spain and the US amongst others.

We are very slow to introduce this. When (not if) schools start closing and the numbers in hospital spike, we will start, although by then consequences will already be baked in.

We are playing fantasy ‘normal life’ right now, with scores off teens off to Reading etc just before school. We need to realise we are still in the midst of a pandemic.

Looking at Israel who vaccinated early is illuminating (albeit scary).

We are playing fantasy ‘normal life’ right now

I absolutely feel this too. Johnson holds a view view that people want a story, making him the storyteller in chief

We are playing fantasy ‘normal life’ right now

And that will continue in every country, until the entire World has got covid under control. We're all going to be in a kind of limbo for another couple of years at least, with some restrictions, high levels of infections, etc.

No, we could vaccinate children to limit the impact of covid when they catch it

You have no idea how it will affect any individual child, we are at 1000 child hospitalisations/month before schools even open.

It's not right that UK children are being put at a far higher risk than our European, American neighbours. UK kids are getting a very poor deal

Iannutstut, no we definitely should not vaccinate healthy children.

All we are seeing at the moment is the natural spread of infection that has been artificially suppressed by social distancing and isolation in the “healthy” proportion of the population. This was always the plan. We were warned back in April. Vaccination to protect the over 40s and then let it go “viral” and then hopefully back in o normal by the winter with boosters for the vulnerable.
Mumsnet membership seems to have the biggest cohort of those who are petrified of Covid. In rl there appears to be much less anxiety.
As a critical worker I have come to the conclusion that 50% of the adult population have worked their socks off so that the other 50% can WFH/shield/stay safe. But this has been pretty much ignored by the worriers on MN who assume that everyone has been sat at home stopping the spread.
I still have patients who come in to see us ( of all ages) who haven’t ventured further than their front door to take delivery of Amazon or Tesco’s shop. Fortunately the rest of us have just gone back to normal.