Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

@ParityJ

You said …

“What can be done to stop cancer?
Are vaccines and hand washing useful for it? And social distancing? Can it be helped by very simple actions most people should be easily capable of?

Cause things that cause cancer, smoking for example, are already being advocated against. Stop smoking campaigns and vape industry etc etc.”

Whilst I agree with you in vague principle ref hand washing etc, actually there are many companies over the years that have found brilliant treatments and potential cures to cancer, and those companies have been buried financially via methods like stock market shorting to limit their ability to fund their research and bring it to market, I can give you many examples. In fact biotech companies at the most shorted/manipulated stocks in existence. You know why? Because it would kill the trillions made by the few big pharmaceutical companies that make a fortune from things not being cured.

Equally, reference smoking - without the tax reaped from tobacco sales, our NHS would have died a death a long long time ago!

@MrsSkylerWhite

TheKeatingFive

What can be done to stop cancer?

Is that a serious question? confused

A huge amount. Aside from banning all smoking, we could ban all meat production for starters. And alcohol. And high calorie foods. Compulsory exercise for all. Regular weighing in with the GP and enforced dieting. Take all cars off the road to combat air pollution. Ban plastics. Triple everyone’s tax contribution so we can pay for the most expensive drug therapies.

If we did all that I’d say we’d quarter our cancer deaths easily.“

This.

This is point. The world seems to think that covid is the first thing to ever come along that we can do something about to prevent death and illness. We can prevent or massively reduce near enough anything if the right measures were in place. The issue is people wouldn't agree with it as its never been the norm. The only reason they have got away with it with covid is because its novel.

We could lock down the world for 5 years which would do absolute wonders for global warming and could save billions of lives....we won't bother with that though.

Of course the vaccine stops the spread. Maybe not completely but I know sooo many people who are double jabbed and their kids from about 12-30 have brought the virus home and they’ve tested negative throughout. Same with small children, every time my child’s primary class and up to about year 4 isolated no other child developed Covid. This is my experience.

@bumbleymummy

I would be very much less concerned if we were vaccinating young people.

Why? Children have been incredibly low risk throughout. They’re more at risk of RSV/flu.

The likelihood and impact of long covid is more than from other viruses.

I can tell you what impact flu has on the heart long term. Can you tell me the same about Covid? Nope.

If they were vaccinating young people, you could choose to refuse and let your kids catch Covid. What concern is it if yours if my kids are vaccinated? Be an anti-vaxxer if you like but we shouldn't all have to be.

Lockdowns and the suspension of operations, treatment for non covid related issues kill too. As does poverty, abuse, domestic violence this list goes on.

This is a hard situation but the children need us to be strong and carry on. We owe it to them and future generations to carry on.

The government have taken mandatory face covers away. So a genuine question, when do you think it's safe for the ones opposed to normality?

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths.

Of covid or with covid?

I hope so. And I say that as someone who currently has Covid.

@powershowerforanhour

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths.

Of covid or with covid?

Covid denial alert!

If you are discharged from hospital, you have a 1 in 3 chance of returing and many die from post-covid complications. These never get counted in the official figures as they are after 28 days from test.

People need to stop trying to pretend Covid doesn't exist. It does. It kills in higher numbers than flu, in all age groups.

And I say that as someone who currently has Covid.

I hope you’re doing ok wax

Nobody is pretending covid doesn't exist or this thread wouldn't exist. Stop putting words in people's mouths.

Everyone knows it exists its just at what point does it end?

@vaxmeup

It's 30k cases on average during the summer though (more meeting outside), lots still WFH, schools/Unis closed etc...so this will increase from September onwards.

See I have been thinking about this and I think this underestimates the impact of the summer holidays. We are away at the moment and the places we are visiting are packed - we have massively interacted with more people than during term time with various different things and mask wearing in some of the places is non existent.

People arent meeting outside as much - pub/restaurants/hotels are all full and very few covid measures are followed.

It will be interesting to see what effect September has

Iannutstut. Stop calling people anti vaxxers and covid deniers. Nobody has labelled you.

Just because they have a different opinion doesn't mean they deserve these silly labels.

@Peteycat

Nobody is pretending covid doesn't exist or this thread wouldn't exist. Stop putting words in people's mouths.

Everyone knows it exists its just at what point does it end?

Plenty of people do want to pretend it doesn't exist, or that it is no longer a threat. They want to stop testing, and stop isolating, and stop counting infections and deaths. Some of these people are in the governing party.

When you say 'at what point does it end' - who knows? No one knows. We may get a dampening down or an increase. We might get a milder variant or a more harmful variant.

@Peteycat

Iannutstut. Stop calling people anti vaxxers and covid deniers. Nobody has labelled you.

Just because they have a different opinion doesn't mean they deserve these silly labels.

They are not silly labels.

The line 'with covid not of covid' is covid denial. It is denying the covid stats.

@lannistunut but the point is and people like you never respond with a decent answer. When do you want to stop isolating and counting cases etc. Covid isn't going away. The vaccine doesn't prevent transmission. If you honestly believe there will be a right time to stop all the above then please enlighten me when you think that will be?

Not heard of 'long flu' causing disability though. The fact that other countries have such lower death rates than ours shows we shouldn't have to tolerate the number that we have

What can be done to stop cancer?
Are vaccines and hand washing useful for it? And social distancing? Can it be helped by very simple actions most people should be easily capable of? “

It can. Some who is obese for example, has a much higher chance of contracting quite a few cancers - breast, prostate for example. Interestingly, not so long ago there was a doctor being interviewed on a Covid ward who said 80% of those in intensive care, who weren’t elderly or immuno suppressed, were overweight. If ever there was an incentive to lose weight, there are two significant reasons.

Drinking less alcohol. Also a connection with heavy consumption and cancer.

Things that can easily be done by a few lifestyle changes.

Covid denial alert!

Not in the least. I'm getting my second vax next week, I'm the only one in my workplace consistently wearing a mask and staying out of the unventilated tea room, I still keep a good 2m plus away from everyone if possible and I haven't been out for dinner or to the pub in over a year.

My area of the UK is red on the BBC case map and hospitalisations and deaths are higher here than they were a month ago, which I believe. I just wondered whether, if covid deaths are going to be measured against flu deaths as the yardstick, they will both be measured in the same way. Are flu deaths counted as within 28 days of a +ve test? Or if flu mentioned on the death cert as a primary or secondary cause?

What people are failing to realise is that this 30000 a day (which by itself is catastrophic) is merely the floor.

We are currently in the height of summer with minimal indoor mixing thanks to palatable weather and schools and universities being on holiday. When they return, and combining this with the start of flu season and waning vaccine immunity, it's going to be carnage.

Last summer cases were 100 times less than they are now. Remember what happened next?

Also - Variants and Long Covid.

[quote Tuba437]@lannistunut but the point is and people like you never respond with a decent answer. When do you want to stop isolating and counting cases etc. Covid isn't going away. The vaccine doesn't prevent transmission. If you honestly believe there will be a right time to stop all the above then please enlighten me when you think that will be?[/quote]
To mirror your own tone, it seems 'people like you' can't deal with the fact that it isn't possible to predict the future.

You seem to need to stop because you want to stop, you have no scientific basis for it.

Currently we have really high cases, and no idea what is going to happen over winter.

I guess if this winter goes well, and once kids are vaccinated, that would be a good time to stop... unless there is a change.

Why, emotionally, do you have such a strong need to pretend Covid is over?

@NannyAndJohn

What people are failing to realise is that this 30000 a day (which by itself is catastrophic) is merely the floor.

We are currently in the height of summer with minimal indoor mixing thanks to palatable weather and schools and universities being on holiday. When they return, and combining this with the start of flu season and waning vaccine immunity, it's going to be carnage.

Last summer cases were 100 times less than they are now. Remember what happened next?

Also - Variants and Long Covid.

Apart from the fact by winter if the boosters go well we should have reached some form of herd immunity. Not suggest sub 10k cases but 15-30k cases wouldn't be horrendous or unexpected.

@NannyAndJohn

What people are failing to realise is that this 30000 a day (which by itself is catastrophic) is merely the floor.

We are currently in the height of summer with minimal indoor mixing thanks to palatable weather and schools and universities being on holiday. When they return, and combining this with the start of flu season and waning vaccine immunity, it's going to be carnage.

Last summer cases were 100 times less than they are now. Remember what happened next?

Also - Variants and Long Covid.

But as I said is that actually true - minimal indoor mixing? I went on a ferry today and there was around 50 people in a close area, few were wearing masks. Restaurants/Hotels etc are packed. Theatres/Cinemas etc.

And what impact actually does Delta have on outdoor mixing which is high - I am sure Wembley etc was outdoors yet high numbers transmitted so I do think that is less important with Delta.

Over the past 4 days of holiday I have interacted with far more people than I have when the children are at school.

That is not to say it wont increase but the vibe last summer was very different to this, lot more restrictions in place people were far more nervy. You cannot compare them at all.

@Tuba437 the scientific community, including government advisors have accepted herd immunity is not possible due to the increased transmissibility of Delta.

Where have you plucked your figure of Not suggest sub 10k cases but 15-30k cases wouldn't be horrendous or unexpected from?

In winter it will circulate widely, more widely than now. Whether that translates to hospitalisations remains to be seen, but I am not sure anyone is really expecting cases to come down.

@lannistunut I don't have to have it declared as over. But I want to make my own risk assessments on living my life. If its about the winter then why not stop reporting it now and then if hospitalisations start to increase in the winter then we can reintroduce briefings etc. To be honest anyway it seems the reporting of cases in definitely slowing down its no longer the top story around half 4 pm you have to scroll down near the bottom to find it.

[quote Tuba437]@lannistunut I don't have to have it declared as over. But I want to make my own risk assessments on living my life. If its about the winter then why not stop reporting it now and then if hospitalisations start to increase in the winter then we can reintroduce briefings etc. To be honest anyway it seems the reporting of cases in definitely slowing down its no longer the top story around half 4 pm you have to scroll down near the bottom to find it.[/quote]
How are you not living your life now?

If you don't like the reporting, switch off your telly.