Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

I also believe we will vaccinate children and believe that the lack of the correct vaccine is why we are not doing it yet.

Think the changing of the make up on JCVI is interesting.

Where do you read it has already peaked in Florida?

I have caveated my words - cases "appear to have peaked".

The daily numbers are available on the CDC website. The steep growth we have seen over past few weeks has now stalled:

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases

@leafyygreens

Yes - this is a false dichotomy that keeps being pushed by the same crowd.

It isn't vaccinate low risk children or vaccinate the vulnerable abroad. Vaccine doses is not the limiting factor, infrastructure and funding are.

For an individual, hiding behind this argument as a reason to not vaccinate your child as if the dose is going to go to someone vulnerable (when in reality if you thought it was necessary you'd grab with both hands) isn't ideal.

Thinks like lobbying government, promoting COVAX and donating to gavi are actual real actions you can take to make a difference.

Florida's growth stalled when the 7-day prevalence reached approximately 700/100,000 population. This is similar to the peak at Blackburn.

@wintertravel1980,

Florida is vaccinating.

44% of 12-19 had already had at least one vaccine as of 12 th August and that was rising rapidly.

Florida is vaccinating.

Yes, I am aware - the question is how much difference to the spread it actually makes.

We have got the vaccines (it is possible to track Pfizer and Moderna deliveries using EU export information - there are a few twitter threads on this). The government is pushing for vaccinating teenagers - Sajid Javid is quite vocal about it. The hold up is actually JCVI and no, it is not just Dingwall. JCVI clearly know what they are doing but they are very, very conservative. I am guessing that they will eventually approve the vaccine but it is unlikely to make a significant difference to the spread.

@leafyygreens

Yes - this is a false dichotomy that keeps being pushed by the same crowd.

It isn't vaccinate low risk children or vaccinate the vulnerable abroad. Vaccine doses is not the limiting factor, infrastructure and funding are.

“The same crowd”

Vaccine doses absolutely are one of the limiting factors. Not the only one, of course, but one all the same. Limits on manufacturing capacity to make vaccines is another, which is yet another reason I’d prefer it if the doses we are prepared to preorder for my healthy, low-risk kids went to COVAX instead for now.

But yes, I’m probably some part of a nefarious ‘crowd’ for ‘pushing’ the idea that me and my immediate family shouldn’t necessarily come first with everything, how awful of me.

But our children are going to have a very high likelihood of catching covid due to our high rates of circulating virus.

Iirc around 40% of secondary school age children had antibodies at the start of July. I’m sure that’s higher now.

@leafyygreens I didn’t say it was the only reason. Are you dating that it couldn’t be a factor at all?

There is not strong evidence that individuals are "immune after being infected"

Yes, there is.

“A large volume of data supports the likelihood that the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, and relative risk compared with individuals without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, is low for over ten months post-infection.”

www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2021-06/Duration-of%20protective-immunity-evidence-summary_22-June-2021.pdf

They’ve managed to send millions of doses since June/July. If we weren’t holding so many back for ourselves, I’m sure we could send more.

@bumbleymummy

But our children are going to have a very high likelihood of catching covid due to our high rates of circulating virus.

Iirc around 40% of secondary school age children had antibodies at the start of July. I’m sure that’s higher now.

@leafyygreens I didn’t say it was the only reason. Are you dating that it couldn’t be a factor at all?

There is not strong evidence that individuals are "immune after being infected"

Yes, there is.

“A large volume of data supports the likelihood that the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, and relative risk compared with individuals without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, is low for over ten months post-infection.”

www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2021-06/Duration-of%20protective-immunity-evidence-summary_22-June-2021.pdf

They’ve managed to send millions of doses since June/July. If we weren’t holding so many back for ourselves, I’m sure we could send more.

For the fifty millionth time, HIQA also recommend individuals with a previous infection are vaccinated

For the 50 millionth time, HIQA themselves do not make that recommendation. And my point was simply that there is strong evidence of immunity after infection - see above link for multiple studies that show just that.

Immunity from infection alone is weaker than from infection plus vaccination.

Also vaccines appear to be better at protecting against a range of variants.

The next big risk is a new variant.

@bumbleymummy,

Where do you get your 40% of school children having antibodies? I am sceptical. I am struggling to find UK or England data, but in Scotland, as of the beginning of July, less than 25% of children have antibodies.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/19462578.coronavirus-three-quarters-children-teenagers-still-no-covid-antibodies/

I think it was PHE or ONS. Let me scout around and come back to you.

@bumbleymummy

For the 50 millionth time, HIQA themselves do not make that recommendation. And my point was simply that there is strong evidence of immunity after infection - see above link for multiple studies that show just that.

Ok - the evidence provided by HIQA was used for Ireland to make the decision, despite evidence some groups have a level of immunity, everyone should be vaccinated despite history of vaccination

You keep linking to his same document and ignoring updates that demonstrate vaccination after infection reduces repeated infections

@bumbleymummy

I think it was PHE or ONS. Let me scout around and come back to you.

You have also repeatedly stated (when it suits your argument) that antibodies do not have prove immunity, yet here you're using them to demonstrate children are "immune"

Ok - the evidence provided by HIQA was used for Ireland to make the decision, despite evidence some groups have a level of immunity, everyone should be vaccinated despite history of vaccination

No, that decision had already been made. This document was not used to inform it. Again, my point is simply that there is strong evidence of immunity after infection. This document refers to plenty of studies that show that. Your statement: There is not strong evidence that individuals are "immune after being infected" Is incorrect.

You have also repeatedly stated (when it suits your argument) that antibodies do not have prove immunity, yet here you're using them to demonstrate children are "immune"

No I haven't. I've said that they don't tell the whole story. The ONS make this very clear in their antibody survey and I have referred to it several times.

@bumbleymummy,

Have you dug up your source for 40% yet?

Still working on it! I have too many bookmarks and I can't remember where it came from to search for a keyword. Sorry!

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@bumbleymummy,

Where do you get your 40% of school children having antibodies? I am sceptical. I am struggling to find UK or England data, but in Scotland, as of the beginning of July, less than 25% of children have antibodies.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/19462578.coronavirus-three-quarters-children-teenagers-still-no-covid-antibodies/[/quote]
I have not been able to find evidence of this either.

Yeah, the latest school infection survey from ONS is March showing ~15% in secondary pupils. This is pre-delta obviously. Antibody data for antibodies in children for round 5 isn’t available yet. I’m now wondering if it was a projection based on infection levels in May/June and the data from March. I’ll keep looking.

"Shall we vaccinate our children? We could start by asking them first | Vaccines and immunisation | The Guardian" amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/04/shall-we-vaccinate-children-lets-ask-them-first-covid

There's this, was this it?

^^ 40% figure, referring to teens.

@FourTeaFallOut

"Shall we vaccinate our children? We could start by asking them first | Vaccines and immunisation | The Guardian" amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/04/shall-we-vaccinate-children-lets-ask-them-first-covid

There's this, was this it?

Thanks @FourTeaFallOut

There's no reference as to where that figure came from or from what dataset, just this statement

There’s no doubt children and teenagers can catch and spread coronavirus. Primary school children appear less likely to catch it, but we know that about 40% of teenagers have Covid antibodies, meaning they’ve been infected over the last year. This is important as it tells us many are already protected, but it is nowhere near enough.

I know, it's a bold statement considering there's no reference but the author is a professor at the UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health - so I figured that information should be out there - somewhere.

@FourTeaFallOut Thanks for this. I don’t think I read it in a news article initially so maybe he’s got it from the same source I did? Wherever that may be!