Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

@bumbleymummy I think it was one week at around 50/day which I saw on twitter, and I remember being surprised, but of course 5 weeks later the memory goes vague

@3asAbird I also found it concerning when I read it, and also am surprised there is not more reporting. Hope your kids are OK this term

[quote lannistunut]@bumbleymummy I think it was one week at around 50/day which I saw on twitter, and I remember being surprised, but of course 5 weeks later the memory goes vague

@3asAbird I also found it concerning when I read it, and also am surprised there is not more reporting. Hope your kids are OK this term [/quote]
Thank you my year 5 som missed all July school because covid cases he did final 3 days of term .
His class had self isolate and do learn at home twice in July they returned 1 day after 10 days and were off again another 10 days.
Prjmary also said don't send siblings that attend the school in.
.
My year 6 had rubbish year and 5/ 10 classes and so many staff were off and end term the head got covid and my sons head was self isolating.

My year 10 well phe shut year 7 and 10 down early as multiple cases at her senior school and many travelled by bus or train from all over the city to get there.
Think Bristol as a whole reached nearly 1000 per 100k having 2 large universities dident help also.

My local comp shit down over 35 cases staff and kids they then reopened but closed again before official term end.

I think schools up north had right time remember reading about 1 school that had 100 cases.

If I am honest I am worried about this term.

Your poor children @3asAbird!

It is not blaming children to say that you are concerned about transmission in schools. Nobody should be blamed for catching COVID. It is nobody's fault.
With the new self isolation rules cases are surely going to rise once schools are back.
The new guidelines for ECV involve trying to avoid meeting indoors and the unvaccinated.
So ECV kids and school staff are screwed if they are one if the unlucky ones where the vaccine doesn't work or can't have the vaccine.

I’m not sure how comfortable I am with nearly 200 deaths a day from covid. Is this expected to increase as well over winter?

@FloFloFloFloFlo what do suggest then, long term?

But there actually aren't currently nearly 200 deaths a day from Covid. The highest daily rate so far in this 'wave' was July 30th with 103 deaths and the next highest August 13th with 101 deaths. No other day so far has exceeded 100 deaths.Some days' total might increase as late deaths are reported.

I don't understand how people still don't realise that the daily reported figure is not how many people died yesterday. Of course you could still argue that between 70 and 100 deaths a day is still too much, but that is the current situation.

What do I suggest? Hopefully improved treatment, greater immunity, more vaccine uptake, better ventilation indoors, continuing with wearing masks where possible in crowded areas.

We also need greater funding for the nhs IMO. Because if deaths continue at this level, none of us are getting adequate treatment for anything.

What do you suggest @nomore3lw

@Ontopofthesunset

But there actually aren't currently nearly 200 deaths a day from Covid. The highest daily rate so far in this 'wave' was July 30th with 103 deaths and the next highest August 13th with 101 deaths. No other day so far has exceeded 100 deaths.Some days' total might increase as late deaths are reported.

I don't understand how people still don't realise that the daily reported figure is not how many people died yesterday. Of course you could still argue that between 70 and 100 deaths a day is still too much, but that is the current situation.

But it's 174 today... and while i'm not panicked, that is a substantial figure...

@FloFloFloFloFlo Greater immunity / vaccine uptake - the government and NHS are trying their bloody best to get everyone to take the jab. And coming up with better treatments. I think that's a given and hoped for by everyone?

Maybe mask wearing would make a dramatic difference but I'm not sure (FWIW I wear one)

But until more people get their vaccine or natural immunity or better treatments are available, do you think we should reinforce restrictions because you're not comfortable?

I get what you are saying @Ontopofthesunset but 174 people have still died and even if they all didn’t die yesterday they’ve all still died and we aren’t going along steadily with a relatively low death rate. It’s increasing and 174 REPORTED deaths today is a lot imo.

But it's 174 today...

Reported today. Tuesday numbers always include catch ups from the weekend. The number reported last Tuesday was 170.

The only meaningful step that might materially reduce deaths is boosters for older and vulnerable people.

Slowing down the spread and pushing the can down the road/into winter is unlikely to be helpful at this stage of the pandemic (for a virus transitioning into endemicity).

@wintertravel1980

The only meaningful step that might materially reduce deaths is boosters for older and vulnerable people.

Slowing down the spread and pushing the can down the road/into winter is unlikely to be helpful at this stage of the pandemic (for a virus transitioning into endemicity).

Not really correct, vaccinations for secondary pupils and mitigations in schools, better education on ventilation, better investment in testing and tracing all would help. Not removing the tracing from local public health teams who are much better at it than the useless Serco lot.

All of the UK's eggs are in the vaccination basket and it isn't enough.

The numbers are not at all good.

Not really correct....

It is correct - it is the only meaningful step that will prevent deaths and reduce hospitalisations.

We were looking to suppress transmission before we had the vaccines. Now we are dealing with the virus that is about to become endemic so suppressing infections in low risk group is no longer the primary objective.

Mitigation measures at schools "feel" right but they will not bring the number of 174 deaths reported this Tuesday down. Yes, there is an argument about long Covid but I was talking specifically about deaths since some of the posters might be concerned about the current level.

people have to catch Covid to die from it.

The (flawed) approach of ONLY vaccines is why we will see high deaths on an ongoing basis.

If we had far better testing & tracing, for example, we could ensure the right people were isolating without having to isolate people unnecessarily - thus reducing transmission, thus reducing deaths.

I just think it's misleading to cite a number in the wrong way. Of course every death is very sad so I'm not trying to minimise that. However, most of the cases at Boardmasters are not going to lead directly to deaths and particularly in the partially or fully vaccinated young they will probably be just an inconvenience and a few days feeling rough. Some disease will filter through to the wider community, which is more worrying, and vaccination is the best way to deal with that. Actually I would have thought having large numbers of teenagers and young adults immune either through prior infection or vaccination a good position to be in going into the winter.

@lannistunut the impression I got from Chris Whitty's conference is that we actually can't really stop people from getting it, eventually we all will. So it might delay people dying but it won't prevent it.

He basically said we've done what we can and sadly people will still die.

The cases at Boardmasters will lead indirectly to deaths, the more cases we have the more deaths we will have.

This fact has not changed and will not change.

We should be doing far more to prevent those positive cases in younger people occuring prior to them being vaccinated and we should also do far more to isolate anyone who is positive.

There is no medical benefit to catching Covid sooner rather than later, although I accept there is a political benefit to declaring covid over sooner rather than later.

What has happened at Boardmasters is a total failure.

@lannistunut his last conference, he hasn't done a recent one **

By the way, I'm not at all impressed by what happened at Boardmasters and agree it is a failure - I'm not advocating mass infection events at all.

[quote nomore3lw]@lannistunut the impression I got from Chris Whitty's conference is that we actually can't really stop people from getting it, eventually we all will. So it might delay people dying but it won't prevent it.

He basically said we've done what we can and sadly people will still die.[/quote]
That is a political choice being made, with the choices the UK government are making no we can not stop a lot of people getting it very quickly.

Of course the option exists to take a different route.

Look at what other countries are doing - making different political choices. They are choosing a lower number of deaths than the UK is choosing to have ths year.

@ontopofthesunset that's my view, we are aquiring immunity through infection in the younger age groups which, as you say is a good position to be in when schools go back in September.

[quote Amboseli]@ontopofthesunset that's my view, we are aquiring immunity through infection in the younger age groups which, as you say is a good position to be in when schools go back in September.[/quote]
It is completely unethical and an absolute disgrace to be putting our young people in that position. Takes an absolute monster of a PM to do this.

There is no justification for infecting children with something we do not understand even a little bit.

@lannistunut the other option is that we live with restrictions indefinitely then? Even countries who said they wouldn't tolerate a single Covid death and closed their borders are now realising the reality.

It's a terrible thing to be living through but it is what it is.