Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

@Marguerite2000

Iannistunut no one knows that yet. Flu is still unpredictable, and there will be another massive vaccination campaign. As for covid, we're really in uncharted territory, but logically cases should start to decline, as immunity in the community builds.

The government has accepted there is basically no herd immunity due to Delta. The vaccine doesn't give immunity, it reduces transmission and gives protection from serious illness and death, but that will not prevent the elderly and most vulnerable from dying, albeit at a very much lower percentage of cases than when vaccinated.

Therefore it is expected more will die, because flu will be flu (up and down every year, with high vaccine take up) and Covid is additional.

There are lots of things I don't know yet, but the science suggests it is not going to be a normal pre-covid winter in the NHS.

sorry - that should say 'than when UNvaccinated' in my first para!

Unfortunately I don't think cases will stay at 30٫000 average either with no more self isolation .

Warhertisuff TheReluctantPhoenix

The Twitter link I posted was showing that it isn't in fact a national spike; it's a spike predominantly in the SW and SE, higher in SW than SE, and a spike in the 15-19 year old age group so far.

@Topttumps

Unfortunately I don't think cases will stay at 30٫000 average either with no more self isolation .

Not now the R rate is going up again and measures are being removed all the time.

@Ontopofthesunset,

It is interesting that the spike is in certain areas but, almost by definition, if taken across a country, the increase will always be more in one area than another.

The problem is a lot if the spike is to do with holidays, and this population will return home, causing additional spikes.

We are OK at the moment, and the number of people in hospital with COVID is still only a 1/5 the peak.

However, that can quickly change when schools and universities go back. Realistically, when one adds to the r number in one area, one should add addition checks on the spread in others (masks, distancing etc) or the r number can rapidly increase, by which time drastic measures may be required.

Of course. I thought it was an interesting thread though, particularly as my older son went to Boardmasters with a group of vaccinated 23 and 24 year olds (some were performing) and at least one of them has now tested positive. But, as you say, it will spread as he is back in Bristol and my son and other friends are back in London.

We are up to 500 per 100K in our area. Probably as high as any other time in the pandemic and schools aren't back yet. Nationally over 30K per day for a few days now.

My msoa was up to 1300/100k a month ago and in that time, including the opening of all restrictions and making masks option which most people seem to be taking full advantage of, we are back down to 320/100k.

30k per day during the optimal summer months with school holidays and lots of outdoor socialising.

Let’s reconvene mid October and see whether we can ‘live’ with Covid.

My expectation is restrictions coming back fairly soon and a lot of concern once the rolling shortages start to bite from Covid and Brexit.

Well, we weren't shifting tactics when we were forecasting 100k cases/day not so long ago so I expect we have a way to go to find out.

The vaccine doesn't give immunity, it reduces transmission and gives protection from serious illness and death, but that will not prevent the elderly and most vulnerable from dying, albeit at a very much lower percentage of cases than when vaccinated

Recent published study showed no reduction in transmission, virus levels in vaccinated folk same as in unvaccinated.

The approx 90 deaths per day is in summer, vaccine effectiveness is falling, at 61% with AZ after 90days, with Pfizer on 75%

Death rate is surely only going to go one way.

whats remarkable is Germany, far lower death and infections than the UK, despite Delta being the dominant strain.

All the at risk and most of the low risk people have had the chance to get double jabbed. Covid is done so lets get back on with life.

Recent published study showed no reduction in transmission, virus levels in vaccinated folk same as in unvaccinated.

No reduction in viral load, however it is not obvious that viral load equals transmission.

Observational studies seem to indicate that household members of vaccinated individuals are less likely to be infected which suggests some impact on transmission.

@wintertravel1980

Recent published study showed no reduction in transmission, virus levels in vaccinated folk same as in unvaccinated.

No reduction in viral load, however it is not obvious that viral load equals transmission.

Observational studies seem to indicate that household members of vaccinated individuals are less likely to be infected which suggests some impact on transmission.

Given the ONS studies on infection rates in the UK, seems vaccination doesn't make much difference at all.

Thankfully, we are not seeing the terrible death toll but to the OP, i think a yearly death rate of 30k plus is not acceptable.

Read this earlier, quite interesting about the different types of immunity, perhaps the new idea is to hope vaccinated people catch it? Definitely better to have it in summer anyway while NHS not too overwhelmed and limited flu.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58270098

@Thewiseoneincognito

30k per day during the optimal summer months with school holidays and lots of outdoor socialising.

Let’s reconvene mid October and see whether we can ‘live’ with Covid.

My expectation is restrictions coming back fairly soon and a lot of concern once the rolling shortages start to bite from Covid and Brexit.

I would be interested to see updated number of contacts - I know NannyandJohn posted that it was less than usual but that only went up to August 2nd.

I think last August we had school holidays and lots of outdoor socialising - I am not sure we have this year.

Theatres are packed with little or no restrictions, mask wearing has disappeared, on holiday I have seen two fairly large weddings with indoor receptions and no socialising. My contacts over August have increased a hundredfold and are far more than they will be when the children go back to school. Contact as well is fleeting with little or no idea if someone has it (and I am sure in Australia it did happen like that)

The problem is a lot if the spike is to do with holidays, and this population will return home, causing additional spikes.

Agree entirely - Secondary schools are LFT so should have some pick up but Primary schools are going in blind. There could be some additional fairly high spikes. But it could very much fall.

And I think that is the roll of the dice, hope for as much in August/September and then see what happens.

All we can predict I think is that so far COVID has been a fairly tricky beast to predict and that restrictions/lockdowns do not work on Delta in the way they did before. Australia/NZ have tough lockdowns - NSW has been in lockdown for two months now and cases are still rising

The NHS struggles on a long weekend let alone a ‘normal’ winter. This winter flu coupled with Covid, no restrictions, GPs fobbing people off - it’s going to be interesting

I’m not saying let’s lock down but this government doesn’t act in time whatever that action might be- which is worrying

Interesting article from the Telegraph

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/21/public-still-avoiding-face-to-face-contact-despite-lifting-restrictions/

Public still avoiding face-to-face contact despite lifting of restrictions
In-person socialising remains significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels and may explain trends in virus transmission.

People are still having half the daily face-to-face contacts they had pre-pandemic and it's helping to suppress the virus, data suggests.

Despite Covid restrictions having been all but dropped in Britain, people’s movement and socialising still lags behind many comparable countries and remains far below normal.

Data from the government-commissioned CoMix survey, which has tracked daily face-to-face contacts since the start of the pandemic, shows they have barely risen since previous lockdowns.

“Reported mean contacts remain lower than the levels reported in August last year and far lower than pre-pandemic levels”, says the week 72 survey report which reflects data up to August 10.

“Mean reported contacts for adults have increased steadily over the past few weeks, though the overall levels of contact remain less than half of pre-pandemic levels”.

Typically, we average about 10-11 contacts per person per day in Britain, but currently they stand at just three to four for both adults and children.

Contact rates have actually fallen slightly since the so-called ‘Freedom Day’ on July 19 for the population as a whole, with the school holidays markedly reducing daily contacts.

According to John Edmunds, a Professor of Epidemiology and Population Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who helps run the CoMix survey, it is Britain's failure to return to the office that accounts for the bulk of the gap.

“I think working from home is the single biggest factor, not just because it cuts out work contacts, but also there are social and travel-related contacts that are associated with working in the office”, he told the Telegraph last week. “We are still miles away from normal”.

Brilliant that cases are lower than we thought, and if caution is what lies behind this, then it augurs well for the autumn and winter.

@herecomesthsun

Brilliant that cases are lower than we thought, and if caution is what lies behind this, then it augurs well for the autumn and winter.

The only thing for autumn and winter is that being in school causes children's contacts to jump ten-fold from what is currently reported - from 3-4 to at least 30-40 - potentially many more if things like assemblies, after school clubs etc are taken into account, and obviously more again for secondary pupils in multiple different groups.

These are 'necessary' contacts that cannot be avoided under current schools' guidance. so however cautious people are, their children will have this number of contacts daily.

So if low numbers of contacts are driving better-that-expected summer figures, then the explosion of contacts caused by the return to school - plus university etc - is likely to lead to a matching explosion in cases.

Well, 30-40k is better than 100-200k, and there is the option of extending the vaccine offer to more 12+

I am not denying that lower cases is better - though I think the hope was there would be a surge over the summer and then a drop down to much lower cases. Just that if your optimism is driven by something caused by low contacts, a 10-fold increase in contacts for virtually all 5-18s in a couple of weeks' time is a potential worry.

Yes I agree. But I think it could have been a lot worse,

@Welshiefluff

All the at risk and most of the low risk people have had the chance to get double jabbed. Covid is done so lets get back on with life.

What a fabulously well thought out conclusion, backed up by stats and data.

Oh wait, no. It's bollocks.