Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

What a fabulously well thought out conclusion, backed up by stats and data Oh wait, no. It's bollocks

Much like your reply.

It seems to me we are going to increase the r number significantly from quite a high base when schools and unis go back.

Every time we have done this, it has not ended well.

I hope it will be different this time due to increases in vaccinations and overall immunity due to infection.

However, I am struggling to see how hospitals won’t be challenged in 6-8 weeks, unless they aggressively vaccinate secondary school students.

I guess, the place we could be in a few weeks time is

"Oh gosh, look at the cases soaring in schools & hospital admissions going up, with some younger people admitted as well!

Let's suddenly decide to vaccinate as many secondary school kids as possible!

Hang on it takes several weeks to develop immunity and several weeks if we want to give 2 doses, oops

Schools, schools, they need to be safer you say...."

There is a possibility we'll need some further restrictions again.

On the other hand, it's still, even so, much more encouraging than the place we were in 12 months ago. We do have vaccines and more treatments now and the death rate for positive cases has decreased and will hopefully decrease further.

@Welshiefluff

What a fabulously well thought out conclusion, backed up by stats and data Oh wait, no. It's bollocks

Much like your reply.

Well, it wasn't my most eloquent, I'm happy to admit that. But yours is genuine nonsense so I am happy to stand by it. Would you like to explain to my CEV daughter what you meant by it and what it means for her?

I'm in Australia, and our health systems in NSW and VIC are currently under pressure due to this latest outbreak and vast number of medical staff on isolation orders due to delta.

Once we get to 80% vax rate, we are opening up again and stopping lockdowns. I'm very nervous from speaking to friends who are doctors, nurses and ambos on the impact to our hospitals. The only positive sign is people currently in ICU either have had no or only one injection.

@herecomesthsun,

I admire your optimism and really hope you are right.

What I am really struggling to get my head around is that we currently have an r number of about 1 with summer and school and uni holidays.

When schools go back, contact amongst a young, immunologically naive cohort will increase massively. With an r of about 6 among this population, we will see rapid spread in schools. The pupils will also take COVID home and spread it to (mainly vaccinated parents). Although vaccinations may protect and prevent the majority of these, some will still be hospitalised.

We currently have about 6,000 in hospital, It seems we peak at 30-40,000 (?). How long will it take if r goes up by 50% to get there? Simply calculated, about 6 weeks.

And, of course, mortality goes up in overstretched hospitals.

It seems to me that when schools open, we should reinstate masks and social distancing (at least) and then maybe allow life to be more normal for the holidays.

I would love someone to explain to me why I am wrong, but it just seems plain maths to me.

I guess it comes down to have immunologically naive they are now given that it has been rife in schools now what are antibodies for that age at?

Mine have both had it and been exposed as close social contacts

A lot of university students have had covid and secondly I think most of them are double jabbed or about to be before term starts.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@herecomesthsun,

I admire your optimism and really hope you are right.

What I am really struggling to get my head around is that we currently have an r number of about 1 with summer and school and uni holidays.

When schools go back, contact amongst a young, immunologically naive cohort will increase massively. With an r of about 6 among this population, we will see rapid spread in schools. The pupils will also take COVID home and spread it to (mainly vaccinated parents). Although vaccinations may protect and prevent the majority of these, some will still be hospitalised.

We currently have about 6,000 in hospital, It seems we peak at 30-40,000 (?). How long will it take if r goes up by 50% to get there? Simply calculated, about 6 weeks.

And, of course, mortality goes up in overstretched hospitals.

It seems to me that when schools open, we should reinstate masks and social distancing (at least) and then maybe allow life to be more normal for the holidays.

I would love someone to explain to me why I am wrong, but it just seems plain maths to me.[/quote]
Well, we are still doing masks indoors in crowded places and social distancing if it seems like a good idea, and it seems we're far from alone in that.

Death is a normal part of life. We have to accept that!

Yes people die, we know that. It is still reasonable to take precautions for ourselves & our families in a pandemic.

@Xenia,

University students are not a major factor, anyway, as, on the whole, they don't need hospital and are a fairly segregated community age-wise, so unlikely to pass it on to older people.

@joystir59

Death is a normal part of life. We have to accept that!

should we just cancel all cancer screening then so we can accept early death from cancer too?

And, of course, mortality goes up in overstretched hospitals. I think this is an important point and the excess death figures will be important to watch as presumably death rates from other causes will rise due to the pressure from covid.

Many hospitals have already cancelled non-urgent operations - those are people who may die earlier but of course will not be directly linked to Johnson's covid mismanagement. IMO every decision being made by Johnson is about avoiding blame for deaths, not about avoiding deaths themselves.

should we just cancel all cancer screening then so we can accept early death from cancer too?
No, but we also cannot always save all people from death

@joystir59

should we just cancel all cancer screening then so we can accept early death from cancer too? No, but we also cannot always save all people from death

Who said we could???

We are talking about saving people who are going to die unnecessarily.

@Quartz2208,

'I guess it comes down to have immunologically naive they are now given that it has been rife in schools now what are antibodies for that age at?'

I am struggling to find data for England. The best I can find is Scotland, where Public Health Scotland estimated only 24% of children had antibodies. I doubt it is very different across the UK.

@joystir59

should we just cancel all cancer screening then so we can accept early death from cancer too? No, but we also cannot always save all people from death

No we can't but so long as your happy to be one of the unlucky ones who die from Covid, despite being vaccinated, then fine.

But i suspect you wouldn't be.

CV is a preventable illness for the vast majority, there are well known measures that can reduce spread and early interventions for those who get it, similar to what BJ had.

So for example, depending on how you do the maths, around 120-150k people died in the UK from covid.

In other countries the toll was far far less.

If we had locked down earlier in March 2020, tens of thousands of lives could have been saved.

Also, if we listened to scientists who wanted to introduce restrictions in September, it's likely that lives might have been saved later on also.

In addition, we may have got away with shorter lockdowns (which have a high cost to society - there is an argument that these also have a cost in lives).

Managing the pandemic well is important both for saving lives and for the economy.

Bit defeatist, when we have modern medicine, to say that it doesn't matter if people die as we all have to go sometime.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@Quartz2208,

'I guess it comes down to have immunologically naive they are now given that it has been rife in schools now what are antibodies for that age at?'

I am struggling to find data for England. The best I can find is Scotland, where Public Health Scotland estimated only 24% of children had antibodies. I doubt it is very different across the UK.[/quote]
so 24% have had it then - would make sense given that the adult figures are boosted by vaccinations hence why all other age ranges are much higher.

A quarter though means (at least to me) that most children have had some contact with it now so are not a immunologically naive as they were in the first three waves through school.

I have said as well this summer has had a huge number of superspreader events and people moving around the country as well it isnt the same as last year at all

It depends very much on the area.

We are down south and have only had a handful of cases in school. There was really only a problem right at the end of the last summer term, when I think all the years were off at some point in the last week or 2.

24% of children with antibodies would suggest to me that a lot of children haven't been exposed to covid yet.

Also, the evidence aparently suggests that people are in anything on average being more careful this year than last.

Why are you all so obsessed with blaming school children? It's really quite odd.

Why are you all so obsessed with masks and social distancing?

I have been slammed on here for not agreeing apparently with scientists, along with other posters, but you are also disagreeing with their advice as masks and distancing are no longer mandatory. The level of hypocrisy on this thread is bizarre.

It is not 'blaming' school children to state facts about covid.

Yes you are. Its honestly horrible to read. Have you forgotten that all our kids have been locked up, their lives upside down and yet still, you bang on and on about restricting them further. Please go away and have a word with yourself.