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Original poster

Normal life is back

570 replies

ExmoorValley · 10/08/2021 13:26

I don't know about you but life where I am is pretty much back to normal, masks in shops falling rapidly. People having a good time. Covid barely gets mentioned now. (and yes I know people are still catching it and a tiny proportion will die)

It feels great. So what happened to the 200,000 cases a day doom scenario peddlers on here? They seem rather quiet.......

OP posts:
MarshaBradyo · 13/08/2021 12:14

Cases rising and hospitalisation holding steady / decreasing is a path out.

nomore3lw · 13/08/2021 12:15

@NannyAndJohn someone was relieved that deaths were low one day. Once they increased you went back to thread and asked them if they were still feeling 'smug'?

It's a very bizarre way to react to hearing more people than predicted had died.

Sparklingbrook · 13/08/2021 12:36

[quote nomore3lw]@NannyAndJohn someone was relieved that deaths were low one day. Once they increased you went back to thread and asked them if they were still feeling 'smug'?

It's a very bizarre way to react to hearing more people than predicted had died.[/quote]
That sounded so unbelievable i had to AS it. But yes, it happened. Shock

Delatron · 13/08/2021 12:45

It was me that she did that to!
I was saying it was great deaths were staying low. Two weeks later she hunted down the thread and bumped it up to say my post ‘hadn’t aged well’ and tagged me and everything. What worrying behaviour.

milkyaqua · 13/08/2021 12:48

Not quite 100K by June or July though is it?

To be fair, lots of experts suggested this figure.

spectator.com.au/2021/07/five-experts-who-predicted-daily-covid-cases-would-hit-100000/

Sparklingbrook · 13/08/2021 12:49

@Delatron

It was me that she did that to! I was saying it was great deaths were staying low. Two weeks later she hunted down the thread and bumped it up to say my post ‘hadn’t aged well’ and tagged me and everything. What worrying behaviour.
That is disgraceful. Two weeks later? There must be a spreadsheet or something. And yes, worrying.
Delatron · 13/08/2021 12:52

It was presented as a worse case scenario though I think? And I for one was pretty incredulous that we would surpass the peak in winter when we have vaccinated a huge percentage of the population. I know the vaccines don’t prevent all transmission but they do reduce it.

I think the messaging around the 100,000 was to install caution as we opened up. The modelling it was based on didn’t stand up to scrutiny. Most models were far more optimistic.

Delatron · 13/08/2021 12:53

Yes @Sparklingbrook she’d searched the thread and bumped it and tagged me and said my post ‘hadn’t aged well’.

It’s in the ‘deaths are low’ thread.

milkyaqua · 13/08/2021 12:54

Likewise, in the Fin Times:

Health secretary Sajid Javid has warned that UK daily Covid-19 cases could rocket to a record 100,000 after restrictions are lifted, warning that the country is about to enter “uncharted territory”.

milkyaqua · 13/08/2021 12:56

No, I don't think it was to instill caution, it's what they and many others believed likely at the time. Ditto, in fact double that amount:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/uk-covid-cases-could-hit-200000-a-day-says-neil-ferguson-scientist-behind-lockdown-strategy-england

IcedPurple · 13/08/2021 12:57

@milkyaqua

Likewise, in the Fin Times:

Health secretary Sajid Javid has warned that UK daily Covid-19 cases could rocket to a record 100,000 after restrictions are lifted, warning that the country is about to enter “uncharted territory”.

Note the use of the word 'could'. I could win the lottery tomorrow. Although I probably won't.
milkyaqua · 13/08/2021 13:01

Note the use of the word 'could'. I could win the lottery tomorrow. Although I probably won't.

Oh, ffs.

Here is Prof Neil Ferguson: 'I think 100,000 cases a day is almost inevitable.’

That was the belief, expectation, prediction of many scientists at the time, worldwide. Luckily, they were wrong.

Sparklingbrook · 13/08/2021 13:02

@Delatron

Yes *@Sparklingbrook* she’d searched the thread and bumped it and tagged me and said my post ‘hadn’t aged well’.

It’s in the ‘deaths are low’ thread.

I'm speechless.
Delatron · 13/08/2021 13:05

When we’re quoting Professor Ferguson (who has literally made wrong predictions the whole way through) then we’re scraping the barrel.

Yes 100,00 cases were mentioned based on one model. Which obviously was seized upon by the papers as it made good (scary) headlines.

Nobody actually questioned why we’d have 100,000 cases versus 68,000 at the peak in Jan? It would mean something had gone very wrong with the vaccines....

I’m speculating but I think it was so when we hit much, much less Boris could say how well he has done.

Stroopwaffle5000 · 13/08/2021 13:06

Not much seems to have changed where I live (South West) Most people still wearing masks, I'm still working from home, someone in a nightclub infected a load of people, recycling isn't being collected on time. My OH runs a hotel and he's got so many people off isolating or tested positive for Covid. For about a year I didn't know anyone who had caught it, but now loads of people I know have, it's very depressing!

MarshaBradyo · 13/08/2021 13:09

Many scientists did get it wrong, the letter writers for a start. And the misplaced comments from the WHO.

What was good though is restrictions were still lifted and it was held as the way to go. Tg.

We’ve had huge criticism before and it has turned out to be right - over 65 for AZ

IcedPurple · 13/08/2021 13:10

@milkyaqua

Note the use of the word 'could'. I could win the lottery tomorrow. Although I probably won't.

Oh, ffs.

Here is Prof Neil Ferguson: 'I think 100,000 cases a day is almost inevitable.’

That was the belief, expectation, prediction of many scientists at the time, worldwide. Luckily, they were wrong.

"Many scientists" fully expected we would reach those figures?

Or one scientist who has been well out with his 'predictions' before?

BustopherPonsonbyJones · 13/08/2021 13:12

Chasing people around threads isn’t nice - although we all recognise certain names - but the first page of this thread wasn’t very nice either. There’s too much of the ‘Ha ha ha, they were wrong’ on both sides. The situation was (and is) fluid and I’m not sure why so many of us need our opinions to be validated by laughing at others when one day we’re right and the next we’re wrong.

milkyaqua · 13/08/2021 13:19

Or one scientist who has been well out with his 'predictions' before?

I quoted one to refute a silly statement. There were five other prominent figures predicting the same in that Spectator article I linked. There were the 1000 pus who signed that letter of concern, etc. I am not going to drag through numerous articles, some of which I have linked, simply for those too lazy to read them or too ill-informed to have read them prior.

I find the bullying of one particular poster abhorrent. Particularly when they have in this instance just repeated a figure mentioned by many scientists.

Delatron · 13/08/2021 13:20

It’s not really the same at all though is it @BustopherPonsonbyJones
Posters bumping threads to point out deaths have risen and making all sorts of dire predictions.

Versus people who are happy and relieved
that those predictions haven’t come true. The mentality behind the posting is very, very different.

I have personally only had arguments with the doom mongers purely because I worry about the effects that their posts may have on people who are in a fragile mental state. I will pull them up on all the crap they post. That’s my motivation. What’s theirs exactly?

Sparklingbrook · 13/08/2021 13:20

It's time for some sub sections within this topic TBH.

milkyaqua · 13/08/2021 13:20

plus, not pus! and just five, not five other

But add those 5 to the 1200; and as I recall it reached 4,000 signatories of concerned scientists, epidemiologists, etc, at one point.

IcedPurple · 13/08/2021 13:25

I quoted one to refute a silly statement. There were five other prominent figures predicting the same in that Spectator article I linked. There were the 1000 pus who signed that letter of concern, etc. I am not going to drag through numerous articles, some of which I have linked, simply for those too lazy to read them or too ill-informed to have read them prior.

Were they actually expressing a " belief, expectation, prediction" though? Or simply saying it was a possibility? If the former, they were wildly wrong.

I find the bullying of one particular poster abhorrent. Particularly when they have in this instance just repeated a figure mentioned by many scientists.

Are you new to these discussions?

This particular poster has spent months actively and enthusiastically spreading doom, even going on to the dedicated 'good news' thread to tell everyone how stupid and naive they were not to share her 'predictions' of sure disaster. And not once have they admitted they were wrong, dramatically wrong. So no, it's not 'just repeating' something. It's an agenda to obsessively put forward the most unrelentingly gloomy scenarios.

And if you're going to call others 'lazy', 'silly' or 'ill-informed' I'm not sure why you're so upset about 'bullying' one poster who has done more than her fair share of hijacking discussions and patronising others.

Sallydimebar · 13/08/2021 13:39

Glad some feel life is back to normal. Due to go away on Monday for a week in lakes . Dd14 tested positive today .Ds 11 gutted he was so looking forward to it .
We can change it but will prob be next year now . This is her sixth time isolating now other five from cases in school .

Jourdain11 · 13/08/2021 13:47

Pinned to the top of every thread? Even ones about girls picking on DD at school and where to go on a day trip to central London...?