More half term circuit breaks on the way!

[3asAbird]

Not sure totally true but irreversible means nothing.

Its seeme a plausible possibility.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/government-starts-planning-firebreak-covid-24707119
Appears over October half term and Xmas holidays be optimum time.

When I think back to last year Wales 2 weeks circuit break dident do much good.
Neither did November mockdown closing businesses but keeping schools open.

We don't have any mitigating measures in place for school no distancing , masks .
No vaccination even 16 to and 17 year old won't be vaccinated in time.
Kids will be back from holidays with no need to quarantine.
They can also go schools if parent or siblings test postive.

This all sounds like a recipe for disaster especially we now being told double vax doesn't block transmission .

@3asAbird

Not sure totally true but irreversible means nothing.

Its seeme a plausible possibility.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/government-starts-planning-firebreak-covid-24707119
Appears over October half term and Xmas holidays be optimum time.

When I think back to last year Wales 2 weeks circuit break dident do much good.
Neither did November mockdown closing businesses but keeping schools open.

We don't have any mitigating measures in place for school no distancing , masks .
No vaccination even 16 to and 17 year old won't be vaccinated in time.
Kids will be back from holidays with no need to quarantine.
They can also go schools if parent or siblings test postive.

This all sounds like a recipe for disaster especially we now being told double vax doesn't block transmission .

Wales’ circuit break did a lot of good, actually.

It wasent long enough and by xmas they ended up with similar high infections to England.
Northern Ireland had 4 week circuit breaker.
If there's a 3 week lag then 2 weeks is not enough.
I guess depends how high infections are by October .

I have no idea whether a circuit breaker would work or not but in theory, if the vaccines hold, it may do because we’d only be trying to reduce the spread in schools and the immunity in adults should act as another firebreak on top. I suspect your forgetting the impact of vaccines, they’re adding a layer of mitigation previously filled by other restrictions, so in theory the use of other restrictions should have more of an impact. A firebreak for schools should have a different outcome compared to last year.

We haven’t been told vaccines don’t block transmission, we’ve been told that if someone is infected despite vaccination they will have a similar viral load to someone who’s unvaccinated. I haven’t actually seen anything official estimating how many infections have been prevented but recent case and hospital admissions numbers would suggest that we should be much higher if vaccines had no impact compared to previous waves.

I don’t relish the thought of it in the slightest but I can see the logic behind it.

Yeah. I'm not staying away from my family over Christmas.

16 and 17 year olds will be vaccinated if they go.
The hub I work at opened up for walk-ins for that age group on Thursday. They’re open again today.
My DS is going next week, he’s not waiting for a letter.

Err no thanks. I've been fully vaccinated, as have the majority of people I know, stuck to the previous lockdowns and followed all the rules in the promise it was the way out. Enough is enough.

They are just making plans. We have absolutely no idea if this will actually happen.

It will only happen if the NHS look like they may get overwhelmed.

At the end of the day, the summer/ freedom day has not gone as bad as they feared.

It makes sense that they start planning for winter. It actually shows some initiative.

Hopefully they'll actually do a longer half term or Xmas break if needed this year. Unlike last years ploughing ahead into a headlong crash and shutting everything down.

So, what’s the plan? Schools back as normal with no masks, no LFD tests from October and no isolation for close contacts but then kids can’t do anything or go anywhere when it comes to the holidays?!

@Waxonwaxoff0

Yeah. I'm not staying away from my family over Christmas.

Good to know.

Don’t forget that loads of teenagers have recently had Covid and therefore will be at reduced risk of catching/spreading it again during the autumn term, as well as all the vaccinated and recently-infected adults. I work in a school and I’m very optimistic about the autumn term

It’s only a contingency plan. The government have contingency plans for all sorts of scenarios, not just covid / pandemics.

At some point the majority of children will have immunity from previous infection, won't they? I'm not sure how to find out the number of under 18's that have tested positive.

I'd like to see proof of recovery being used more to stop children who have recently had covid having to isolate again soon after.

@Lemons1571

It’s only a contingency plan. The government have contingency plans for all sorts of scenarios, not just covid / pandemics.

Yep thought this.

It's their job to plan. Surely!

Last year nobody had had a vaccine.

This year we're currently sitting at 70% of the entire population having the first dose, 58.2% have had both doses. And they're doing 16 and 17 year olds starting now.

Why would we need a firebreak? Zero Covid is not going to happen and people need to fixating on case numbers. I am not going to abide by any more rules about not seeing people or having them in the house.

@Lemons1571

It’s only a contingency plan. The government have contingency plans for all sorts of scenarios, not just covid / pandemics.

Also agree with this - DH works in an organisation which is critical to national infrastructure and they spend hours running scenarios. Everything from a hijacked plane crashing over central London to a chemical weapons attack on their office. Doesn't mean they think it'll happen.

This is a contingency plan that I do not think we will have to use, by the time we get to the autumn we will most certainly be at herd immunity levels, and many scientists think that is already the case. The fact that vaccinated people still transmit the virus is pretty meaningless if we have reached herd immunity. We will continue to see cases rumble on for many years, in itself no big deal if the hospitals are easily able to cope.

The combination however of a bad flu season AND covid will be the reason for the contingency. A bad flu year can put a terrible strain on the NHS in normal times.

We need to invest and prepare for the winter, so we have the beds and the staff. We are going to need to get to grips with a new decision too, do we start to make the NHS smaller and it will not include everything it currently covers now? Or do we pay much higher taxes to support the 'new normal' that is life with covid and the NHS continues as it is now....

I'm also in the 'it's just a contingency plan' camp.

...and I don't think this winter it will be all about COVID anyway.

The vaccines are doing their job and keeping the numbers in hospital much lower than they would have been.

It will be the combination of COVID, flu, pneumonia, norovirus and bronchitis and whatever other things float around at that time of year that none of us have had for 18 mths +

I honestly think that as long as there isn't a more severe variant we're at the end stage of the pandemic in the UK now.

How things are today is pretty much how things will continue...society opened up, plenty of it circulating around and being caught but mainly reduced to symptoms akin to a bad cold / flu for most double vaccinated people.

Sadly anti-vaxxers and those vaccinated but for whom it didn't work and/or are very, very vulnerable will continue to be hospitalised and a proportion of them die.

Of course that's horrible for those who fall into that camp, but equally COVID is one more thing on a long list of illnesses they have to be careful not to catch.

The numbers will continue to reduce as more people get their second vaccine and then we'll be left with a steady level of cases, hospitalisations and deaths similar to flu. The only difference being that it will include a few more younger people who refused a vaccine.

Whatever they come up with I will be seeing family this Xmas. We lost a family member late June due to a short illness and he was meant to be at mine for xmas dinner last year with other family members and my one regret is that we just didn't go ahead with it and do it . Won't be doing that again

Yeah good luck with a christmas lockdown!

I think we’re on to the ‘living with Covid’ stage now. The vaccines are doing their job and plenty of natural immunity in the population. It’s pointless to keep wishing for disruptive measures to continue. We have to move on.

Hardly any would comply with any sort of restriction on seeing people inside households. This is where most of the spread is so other measures if this can’t happen will be ineffective.

@Delatron

I think we’re on to the ‘living with Covid’ stage now. The vaccines are doing their job and plenty of natural immunity in the population. It’s pointless to keep wishing for disruptive measures to continue. We have to move on.

Hardly any would comply with any sort of restriction on seeing people inside households. This is where most of the spread is so other measures if this can’t happen will be ineffective.

I agree, no future lockdown will have the same impact because people won’t stay away from loved ones like they did before.

They can shut businesses but they can’t really stop people mixing.

Yes and shutting businesses will impact the economy (again!) whilst people still mix inside. So completely pointless and the government know this which is why the narrative has changed.

I think it's scenario planning, rather than prediction.

IF we get a nasty rise in cases - enough to increase hospitalisations to a worrying level during winter virus season - then it will be easier to make good decisions if planning work has been commissioned and kept under review.

I think the big wild card is flu - how the hell does one make good predictions on which strains to include in the vaccinations when there was such low circulation in the previous season?