More half term circuit breaks on the way!

[3asAbird]

Not sure totally true but irreversible means nothing.

Its seeme a plausible possibility.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/government-starts-planning-firebreak-covid-24707119
Appears over October half term and Xmas holidays be optimum time.

When I think back to last year Wales 2 weeks circuit break dident do much good.
Neither did November mockdown closing businesses but keeping schools open.

We don't have any mitigating measures in place for school no distancing , masks .
No vaccination even 16 to and 17 year old won't be vaccinated in time.
Kids will be back from holidays with no need to quarantine.
They can also go schools if parent or siblings test postive.

This all sounds like a recipe for disaster especially we now being told double vax doesn't block transmission .

The ice cream van guy 🤣

@TheKeatingFive

Spending time with vulnerable family last Christmas, when no-one was vaccinated and cases were sky high, was pretty stupid

Balance of risks though surely, like everything else in life.

Plenty of people were careful to limit their own exposure prior to visiting family.

Also, how many people won’t live to see another Christmas? Many other things can get you other than Covid. That possibility played into decision making too.

Yes and all that can be factored into modelling.

The people who think this is Aunt whatever's last Christmas will take steps to see her more safely.

The people who don't care won't care.

But as I said upthread, if there is a circuit breaker at Christmas, and governent advice is xyz - I would bet the majority of people follow it.

I often wonder what the ‘I’m doing what I want’ group would say if it was their child/mother etc who was denied treatment due to the nhs being overwhelmed with Covid patients or if they were left to bleed out at the side of the road after a car crash because there was no ambulance coming due to them all transporting Covid patients

I would blame the government for not putting more money into the NHS. It is not the job of the general public to protect the NHS. We pay tax and it is the job of those in power to ensure that money is spent correctly

👏👏👏

And OP - it's the job of the government (and the NHS for that matter) to make contingency plans for possible public health emergencies. It doesn't mean said emergencies will happen.

As my nan used to say, 'It's better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it'.

Tbf the ice cream man probably knows as much as the gp.

Contingency plans are normal practice in the nhs.

@TheVampiresWife

And OP - it's the job of the government (and the NHS for that matter) to make contingency plans for possible public health emergencies. It doesn't mean said emergencies will happen.

As my nan used to say, 'It's better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it'.

This hasn't been the philosophy though, more, we need to make "efficiency savings" ([cuts] year on year, where can we cut from that no one will immediately notice? Planning for pandemics - who knows if we will ever need that? we haven't had one in ooh decades.

@PomRuns

Tbf the ice cream man probably knows as much as the gp.

Contingency plans are normal practice in the nhs.

The ice cream man probably knows more that the PM about what contingency plans are in place

Well people don’t seem to be blaming the government given that they keep getting voted in time and time again but there we go.

I also have a hard time believing that if any of your loved ones were left at the roadside because there had been a huge surge in cases due to people socialising against advice that you wouldn’t harbour some ill feelings towards those people.

if there is a circuit breaker at Christmas, and governent advice is xyz - I would bet the majority of people follow it

I disagree.

We need to factor in differences in sentiment pre/post mass vaccination. And what that signals about the status of lockdown. It’s quite a big jump. A temporary emergency measure versus a way of life. I really doubt the majority support that, especially as most people’s risk is now so small.

If it happens, we will see.

If it happens, we will see Indeed, if we remember we can post on here!

I do think the fact that compliance was high before doesn’t mean it will be again there is a fundemental point that it is hard to pursue a two pronged approach

• so get vaccinated now you need to go save yourself and your loved ones, in fact the vaccine is so effective that even though it carries a small risk of death we will mandate it to do certain jobs, go to certain venues etc
• but the vaccine doesn’t mean that you don’t have to stay locked in your house, cut off from your loved one, not allowed to open you business have family round for Christmas dinner.

It’s very hard to do both in terms of effective public messaging. I know mumsnet denies it but the vaccine campaign at the minute is being couched as “vaccinate to get the good times back” people who hear that are not going to be as happy with lockdown as they were when we faced the threat of a novel virus in March 2020. You could get another lockdown but it would need “the vaccine has failed” messaging “don’t assume the vaccine protects you” that will have massive impact on future vaccine uptake many 20 somethings saying “why bother it doesn’t even work remember last time when we ended up on lockdown again anyway”. We have low level of vaccine hesitancy in this county but that is because people believe vaccines work..a future lockdown will dent that faith, or if the faith holds not be complied with as people will be unconvinced of the risk! It will be a much harder balancing act that happened before.

If there was a new lockdown type situation, then I would continue breaking the rules to fit with my job and being at lowest risk to my parents. For example, at Christmas I didn't want to see them when I was 'allowed' - I hadn't been out of school and in control of my own health for long enough at that point. We did it at the end of the school holidays when it wasn't 'allowed'. It was safer though. I also saw them last summer when we weren't 'allowed' to. There won't be new lockdown type restrictions though, so I'll just continue as we have done all along with risk stuff.

I'll be pissed off if half term gets wrecked though, it's our only chance to do things like see some relatives and friends, to get eye tests, car tyres, haircuts and so on.

There’s actual government modelling and behavioural science on compliance with lockdowns. Now we were more compliant than they thought with the first one. But by the third compliance had dropped. I’ve seen no suggestion that compliance will be high with any other lockdown when we don’t have the
‘don’t kill your granny’ and ‘save the NHS’. The government know this. Some on here need to catch up.

I’ve seen no suggestion that compliance will be high with any other lockdown...

Have you seen any (reliable, rather than the opinions of lockdown sceptics) suggestion that compliance wouldn't be high?

Compliance in lockdown three was still good.

@FloFlower

I also have a hard time believing that if any of your loved ones were left at the roadside because there had been a huge surge in cases due to people socialising against advice that you wouldn’t harbour some ill feelings towards those people.

Well I’d have been one of them So no - I wouldn’t feel any anger towards them whatsoever.

Compliance dropped each lockdown. We were told vaccines were the way out of this. So no I think if you tell double vaccinated people to stop socialising and seeing family again most wouldn’t. In fact most stopped with the rules once they’d passed their three weeks after being vaccinated.

The only place I’ve heard anybody think another lockdown is happening is a handful of people on Mumsnet.

The government have modelled for this and said as much at the beginning of the pandemic. Nothing has changed. People have lost all tolerance for lockdowns.

@FloFlower

I also have a hard time believing that if any of your loved ones were left at the roadside because there had been a huge surge in cases due to people socialising against advice that you wouldn’t harbour some ill feelings towards those people.

I wouldn't. I wouldn't expect anyone else to prioritise strangers ahead of their own families. Anyway I'd be a hypocrite if I did because I have socialised against advice myself.

@FloFlower

Well people don’t seem to be blaming the government given that they keep getting voted in time and time again but there we go.

Er, I did not vote Conservative.

Ive never voted Tory.

I’m not suggesting either of you @MercyBooth or @Waxonwaxoff0 have voted Tory. How would I know how you voted? However, it is an undeniable fact that the conservatives have been consistently elected since 2009 ish (can’t remember the exact year). This is despite having a stated policy of austerity.

So someone is clearly voting for them.

F'ck that! The only time I get to spend quality time with family or to go on holiday is during half term or at Christmas because, you know, the rest of the time I'm teaching (unvaccinated) children. So no. Just no!