More half term circuit breaks on the way!

[3asAbird]

Not sure totally true but irreversible means nothing.

Its seeme a plausible possibility.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/government-starts-planning-firebreak-covid-24707119
Appears over October half term and Xmas holidays be optimum time.

When I think back to last year Wales 2 weeks circuit break dident do much good.
Neither did November mockdown closing businesses but keeping schools open.

We don't have any mitigating measures in place for school no distancing , masks .
No vaccination even 16 to and 17 year old won't be vaccinated in time.
Kids will be back from holidays with no need to quarantine.
They can also go schools if parent or siblings test postive.

This all sounds like a recipe for disaster especially we now being told double vax doesn't block transmission .

@Imnothereforthedrama

the possibility that the spread amongst the unvaccinated (including children) is underestimated, the possibility the level of vaccine breakthrough is underestimated, the possibility of a variant that weakens the vaccine efficacy, the possibility that the flu season and strain of flu mixed with high levels of covid weakens the health system, or any combination of those factors. Those are just off the top of my head, I imagine those whose job it is to plan for this stuff have a few more.

Fair comment a lot of possibility’s though which I doubt people will go for and it will be extremely difficult to convince people that we need lockdowns again after encouraging the vaccine. I actually think they will roll out to children, they can’t justify school closures again .

Maybe, although this has been said before and we’ve still gone into lockdown. I don’t think there’s many who actively want lockdown or restrictions but when the reality of the situation is actually happening opinion changes.

As a theoretical proposal most people would say ‘hell no’, when there is an active situation a proportion of those (grudgingly) change their minds.

@Imnothereforthedrama

Fair comment a lot of possibility’s though which I doubt people will go for and it will be extremely difficult to convince people that we need lockdowns again after encouraging the vaccine. I actually think they will roll out to children, they can’t justify school closures again .

Yeah, I always expected a massive u turn with regards to children.

Yes we did have more lockdown before the vaccine though. If we hadn’t had the vaccine as the success it was I would say almost definitely another lockdown again but it was a success so unless the are going to extend furlough ( which they aren’t ) and close schools again( which I doubt ) it won’t actually be a lockdown will it ? .

the possibility that the spread amongst the unvaccinated (including children) is underestimated

Jenny Harries admitted a while back that they hadn't done any robust modelling for the spread of covid in schools when they return in September.

www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/covid-schools-bubbles-rules-restrictions-b1879926.html

@Imnothereforthedrama no, but you’re working from the premise that the vaccines will remain as successful as they are now and all other circumstances remain the same. Planning needs to take into account what the known possibilities are, that’s basic risk assessment and we can’t afford (literally) to be caught completely off guard again.

If nothing dramatic changes then happy days, but like I said, there’s a long time between now and winter and a number of possibilities that have the potential to cause big problems.

A lot of reasons we have to be positive don’t have the luxury of time-proved evidence behind them. Yes the vaccines are working well but there is still a question over whether they will sustain us over a winter period in combination with the usual flu pressures. I don’t think we even have a clear idea of which strains of flu we might be tackling like we usually do because the Southern Hemisphere tend to have them now over their winter period and everywhere has seen a drop in flu cases due to covid mitigations. If the flu vaccine is a dud because we can’t accurately predict what strains to include we’re likely in for a bad winter on top of (hopefully) similar levels of covid which are massively decreased but still significant from a healthcare perspective.

I was looking at some stats the other day detailing what ‘underlying causes’ actually were in regards to announced covid deaths - flu/pneumonia were high on the list in every age group bar the very young (

[quote Waxonwaxoff0]@ClaudettaAteTheFeta so? Unfortunately that could happen at any time now, Covid is here to stay. Unless we all lock away forever, some people will still die from this. My parents are not elderly or vulnerable so I've never been majorly concerned for them, and my mum has already had Covid.[/quote]

My friend's dad wasn't elderly or vulnerable either - he was late 50s and healthy. Wanting to spend Christmas Day 2020 together sadly cost him and many people their lives. While I hope things are back to normal and family gatherings indoors, during winter will be safe, I thing it's still a case of having to wait and see what the situation it at the time... especially after a term of kids back at school and vaccines possibly beginning to wear off...

@ClaudettaAteTheFeta it will be a case of me and my family deciding what is safe and what is best for us. Not what the government says.

Personally I won’t be complying, but there’s a limit to how much you can do if they lock down.
DS will have to go to school as I work in healthcare. Thankful for that!
I can see family and friends who want to but some are more compliant than me!
I can’t go shopping, out or on holiday if they close shops, restaurants and ban travel.
However hasn’t the money tree for furlough etc run out? Think we’ll just have to muddle along this time.

Yep no way I’m doing a Christmas lockdown. I won’t be staying away from family again. Good luck to them trying anything. We’re double vaccinated now, there’s no need.

Remember what Hancock was probably likely doing last Christmas. There is no way that it just started in May.

IMO its been going on a long time including in the run up to last Christmas when we were guilt tripped gaslighted and emotionally abused by Government and media into not seeing our families and the 19th Dec press conference when we were told we couldnt . If they think im spending money on gifts early just because of supply chain issues (which seems to be making the news now) after what they pulled last year they can think again. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me

In all likelihood, we’re either going to be drowning in catastrophic floods or going up in flames by then anyway. Fear not though, as long as we all STAY THE FUCK AT HOME, wear our masks and dob in our neighbours breaking the rulez, the COVID gods will be suitably appeased and we will all be safe

@stitchmaker85

Err no thanks. I've been fully vaccinated, as have the majority of people I know, stuck to the previous lockdowns and followed all the rules in the promise it was the way out. Enough is enough.

This.

Get vaccinated or get covid.

I couldn’t give a shit which people choose.

Also people will not stay away from family again, my friend lost her mum suddenly in Feb and her regret is that she listened to Boris and his tier 4 nonsense and stayed away from her family for Xmas day she will never get that time again! I will never be told I can’t see my family again and I know most people feel the same so all it will do is destroy more businesses as people will do what they want in their homes

Differing attitudes are so interesting, I was begging for the December lockdown I thought the opening up after the November restrictions was reckless (Kent hospital doctor). So many preventable needless deaths were caused by the delay and indecision, anyone sensible had already decided Xmas bubbles were a recipie for disaster by the 19th. I will use my common sense if the situation is anything like last year we will not be socialising inside.

'Enough is enough' is my absolute favourite covid phrase. Laying down the law to a) a virus and b) the government.

If a circuit breaker is needed, a circuit breaker is what we will be instructed to do. If school is shut, your child can't attend, however tough you talk.

Those who overpromised what vaccines could do have set up a feeling of failure, but some measures maybe being needed is not surprising to me.

@TheKeatingFive

Hardly any would comply with any sort of restriction on seeing people inside households. This is where most of the spread is so other measures if this can’t happen will be ineffective.

Basically this

Two-thirds would comply as every other time.

The one-third will take the risk of becoming ill whilst there is no hospital capacity, that's their lookout.

The one-third will take the risk of becoming ill whilst there is no hospital capacity, that's their lookout

But utterly shite for everyone who would otherwise have received hospital treatment and can't because beds are already full. Especially ICU beds, so don't have a major accident, need complex surgery or have a heart attack

I agree @UnmentionedElephantDildo, was just responding on the 'hardly anyone would comply' line, which gets trotted out but is a myth. Every lockdown, compliance has been good.

@MercyBooth

IMO its been going on a long time including in the run up to last Christmas when we were guilt tripped gaslighted and emotionally abused by Government and media into not seeing our families and the 19th Dec press conference when we were told we couldnt . If they think im spending money on gifts early just because of supply chain issues (which seems to be making the news now) after what they pulled last year they can think again. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me

Who the fuck cares whether Matt Hancock was having an affair? Obviously if someone is having an affair they're not going to stick to social distancing rules. It has literally no effect on your life, you choose to do the right thing yourself, not worry about what (or who) some weevily little politician is doing.

Spending time with vulnerable family last Christmas, when no-one was vaccinated and cases were sky high, was pretty stupid. We'll see how this year goes. I really, really hope the vaccines/boosters hold up and I can see my parents, but if it's not safe I won't.

@lannistunut

I agree *@UnmentionedElephantDildo*, was just responding on the 'hardly anyone would comply' line, which gets trotted out but is a myth. Every lockdown, compliance has been good.

People weren't vaccinated in the last lockdowns. That's what will make a difference with compliance this time.

I agree with @stitchmaker85 where do you draw the line with just making this an illness like any other.

Why did we all comply under the auspices of the vaccination being the be all and end all to find out it isn’t the answer to end lock downs.

I won’t be complying with any further restrictions.

@lannistunut

'Enough is enough' is my absolute favourite covid phrase. Laying down the law to a) a virus and b) the government.

If a circuit breaker is needed, a circuit breaker is what we will be instructed to do. If school is shut, your child can't attend, however tough you talk.

Those who overpromised what vaccines could do have set up a feeling of failure, but some measures maybe being needed is not surprising to me.

My child will attend school on a KW place as he did last time and I won't stop seeing family and friends.

@Waxonwaxoff0 if you child has a KW place that's grand, but also irrelevant to general discussion.

You have no evidence that the vaccination will change the compliance rate. People's personalities have not been changed by the vaccine. Presumably the 'sheeple' are still as cowed as ever by the system?