Immoral and dangerous - or sensible? Vaccination for 16 year old.

[CaptainCaveMum]

Locally many many healthy (not CV nor living with someone CV) 16 year olds are getting vaccinated. The majority of my DS’s friends have now had their first dose. I’m being encouraged (by other parents) to take DS for the vaccine.

I’m conflicted.

The JCVI has clearly said the risk (small) to these children outweighs the benefits (even smaller).
Morally I am uncomfortable about cheating the system when older and sicker people here and overseas would benefit more.

But.

From a social perspective, my unvaccinated DS may miss out on some things eg nightclubs, festivals.
And what if the JCVI are wrong?
And what if he catches COVID?

DS says he’ll do what I advise.
Please help me unpick this.

@bumbleymummy

No, I wouldn’t vaccinate them. They’re very low risk. Covid is much lower risk for them than some of the activities they do!

I just find it strange that people are willing to accept the JCVI recommendations for adults but then dismiss them for children.

but equally you are quoting JCVI guidelines for kids as if gospel, but entirely not convinced of following them for low risk adults?

@Aloethere I haven’t had the vaccine myself either because I’m low risk too. So you could say I’ve dismissed their recommendations already. :) Just wondering why those who are have listened to their recommendations for adults, don’t listen to them for children.

@Tightsonatrain we won’t be able to prevent new variants. Viruses mutate all the time.

[quote bumbleymummy]@Aloethere I haven’t had the vaccine myself either because I’m low risk too. So you could say I’ve dismissed their recommendations already. :) Just wondering why those who are have listened to their recommendations for adults, don’t listen to them for children.

@Tightsonatrain we won’t be able to prevent new variants. Viruses mutate all the time.[/quote]
this seems to be the adage of all these sorts of arguments

It's not a binary situation. Yes viruses mutate and yes there will be new variants but we can take steps to minimise the mutation rate to reduce to the risk of this happening whilst other countries continue with vaccination and we help others build the infrastructure needed to speed up their own programmes.

It's not just, oh well, it's inevitable so might as well let it happen

I keep reading American reports about sick kids and wondering why are American kids more sick than the UK.
When media reported so many kids affected in Brazil people on her said it because they were poor with a more basic health care system.
Read four 10-19 old died in the past 7days maybe they were very sick anyway we don't have that data.

I want my soon to be 12 year old have vaccine as she starts year 7.
My asthmatic 15 year old who will be year 11 and sitting gcses she also is keen ha e to jab.
I think if offered takeup be fairly high.
I do think its political and supply issues as MHRA have approved it and so many other countries are.

Instead what will happen is we won't use this summer wisely.
Cases will climb in autumn combined with warning about other child respiratory illnesses and flu returning as well as covid the NHS will struggle.
Yet if we had started vaccination of teenagers now we could ease up pressure to NHS and reduce cases .
Also I remember 1 press conference from winter with jon van tam and his heat map saying school cases in autumn were seating into infection in older age groups.
Lots parents rely on elderly grandparents for child care.

[quote bumbleymummy]@Aloethere I haven’t had the vaccine myself either because I’m low risk too. So you could say I’ve dismissed their recommendations already. :) Just wondering why those who are have listened to their recommendations for adults, don’t listen to them for children.

@Tightsonatrain we won’t be able to prevent new variants. Viruses mutate all the time.[/quote]
I don't think most adults got it just because the JCVI recommended it though? Do you not think that people who have gotten the vaccine are able to make up their own minds just as you are? It seems odd that you would think most people are just blindly following whatever they recommend when you yourself are not.

@3asAbird

I keep reading American reports about sick kids and wondering why are American kids more sick than the UK. When media reported so many kids affected in Brazil people on her said it because they were poor with a more basic health care system. Read four 10-19 old died in the past 7days maybe they were very sick anyway we don't have that data.

I want my soon to be 12 year old have vaccine as she starts year 7.
My asthmatic 15 year old who will be year 11 and sitting gcses she also is keen ha e to jab.
I think if offered takeup be fairly high.
I do think its political and supply issues as MHRA have approved it and so many other countries are.

Instead what will happen is we won't use this summer wisely.
Cases will climb in autumn combined with warning about other child respiratory illnesses and flu returning as well as covid the NHS will struggle.
Yet if we had started vaccination of teenagers now we could ease up pressure to NHS and reduce cases .
Also I remember 1 press conference from winter with jon van tam and his heat map saying school cases in autumn were seating into infection in older age groups.
Lots parents rely on elderly grandparents for child care.

I think your comments about the summer not being used wisely are spot on. Not to mention that in September, the efficacy of the vaccines given early on will be waning at that point, so the oldest and most vulnerable will be waiting for boosters while being exposed to a probable increase in cases.

Exactly its the perfect storm we wasting our vaccine advantage and wealth as country..
We can afford to vaccinate our children.

Kids don't exist in a bubble.
Some vulnerable or older adults work with them or care for them so chances kids giving covid to someone vaccinated in January is more risky given Israel study on waning immunity.
We will probably panic and surge vaccinate teens when nhs shows signs of overwhelm but the damage to the economy and risking another lockdown will make vaccinating look cheaper in the long run.
We have 5 weeks until they return to school.

I agree the government are taking a big gamble with our vaccine advantage.

@Tightsonatrain I’m just saying that mutations are inevitable so it’s not a particularly strong argument.

@3asAbird Obesity probably has a lot to do with it. All the factors you have mentioned were taken into account by the JCVI. Did you read their report?

@Aloethere I’m sure they can. I just wonder why they reject the evidence against vaccinations for children if they accept it for adults.

The gamble seems to be paying off so far. Cases are dropping now.

[quote bumbleymummy]@Tightsonatrain I’m just saying that mutations are inevitable so it’s not a particularly strong argument.[/quote]
you seem to be missing my point though?

as I said mutations are inevitable, the speed at which they occur (and new variants emerge) is not

We can take steps to minimise the mutation rate to reduce to this risk whilst other countries continue with vaccination and we help others build the infrastructure needed to speed up their own programmes.

@bumbleymummy

The gamble seems to be paying off so far. Cases are dropping now.

They are currently rising again now.

We have to just wait a little bit and see what is really going on.

I see Van Tam has bollocked the people who are saying it is 'over'.

Can anyone explain why kids more widely affected by covid 19s in some states?

cnn.it/3j3S1QW

@Tightsonatrain our ‘minimising’ won’t make much difference when you have millions of unvaccinated people in densely populated parts of the developing world. But let’s just agree to disagree shall we?

@lannistunut it rose a bit today, still down compared to last week though.

[quote 3asAbird]Can anyone explain why kids more widely affected by covid 19s in some states?

cnn.it/3j3S1QW[/quote]
24 paediatric cases compared to 16? In the entire state?

But pediatric cases in uk are seldom reported yet they happening.
Is the media or the government downplaying kids and covid?

Theres a twitter account that tracks child admission and deaths in the UK
1004 kids admitted with covid in 🇬🇧 in July 2021.
Media don't seem interested.
Surely that's enough to warrant vaccination.

mobile.twitter.com/TigressEllie/status/1420762768005758987

[quote bumbleymummy]@Tightsonatrain our ‘minimising’ won’t make much difference when you have millions of unvaccinated people in densely populated parts of the developing world. But let’s just agree to disagree shall we?

@lannistunut it rose a bit today, still down compared to last week though.[/quote]
but it's not "agree to disagree", this is something that you're wildly incorrect on

Minimising (not sure why you put it in quotation marks) transmission buys time, slowing the mutation rate and cutting the chance of a new immune escape variant emerging. As I said, this time will be critical while other countries continue vaccinating and developing countries are helped to set up their own programmes.

The fact that other countries are in a worse position in terms of transmission is not a reason to think fuck it here. It makes literally no sense. As I said we're in a privileged position to have the opportunity to get things under control and assist other countries. The UK letting transmission rise (just because other countries are faring worse) helps no-one.

[quote 3asAbird]Theres a twitter account that tracks child admission and deaths in the UK
1004 kids admitted with covid in 🇬🇧 in July 2021.
Media don't seem interested.
Surely that's enough to warrant vaccination.

mobile.twitter.com/TigressEllie/status/1420762768005758987[/quote]
Do you not think the JCVI have access to the figures for serious illness and hospitalisation?

@Tightsonatrain you really think that slowing transmission in the U.K. will make any difference, considering the incidence worldwide? Ok, we’ll just have to agree to differ on this one. I think you’re the one that is incorrect.

Snd our transmission rate is slowing btw.

And, according to the recent cdc findings that I mentioned a few posts ago, the vaccine isn’t making much difference to transmission anyway.

Is this not explained by Delta being more transmissible / higher viral load.
Those who are vaccinated have a lower viral load, as I've heard it.

I'd rather be vaccinated than not.

@bumbleymummy

And, according to the recent cdc findings that I mentioned a few posts ago, the vaccine isn’t making much difference to transmission anyway.

It is minimising transmission, just not as much with Delta as it was with Alpha.

Just because something doesn't work perfectly doesn't mean you shouldn't use it at all.

I didn’t say we shouldn’t use it at all but nor should we push the idea that vaccinated people are completely safe and should be exempt from testing/isolation etc.