Under 30k cases today

[TheVampiresWife]

And infections falling for the sixth consecutive day.

Excellent news!

Good point above above the heatwave.

Wasn't it proven last year at some point that UV light kills the virus pretty quickly?

I'm happy to get excited I just want someone to to put it into data context for me

@Helpel

Schools where we are closed 9th July, many more closed on 16th. Don't get me wrong, I am pleased as anyone to see a decrease, because I'm fed up of the fear high case numbers seem to breed (despite high vax rates) but think we need to accept that this is a case of 'lies, damn lies and statistics'!

So it'll be mass panic again the week the kids go back in September.

@itsgettingwierd

Good point above above the heatwave.

Wasn't it proven last year at some point that UV light kills the virus pretty quickly?

UVC light.

www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/uv-lights-and-lamps-ultraviolet-c-radiation-disinfection-and-coronavirus

Fab news!!!

So it'll be mass panic again the week the kids go back in September.

Not necessarily. Not if we have good leadership and planning to put in place sensible mitigation measures...

DS’s year group (11)finished back in May/June but they have been partying big time for the last month. Covid has been spreading like wildfire through their year group as a result. Probably a big positive since most of them will be vaccinated as well by the time they return to school. Going forward it should reduce disruption during sixth form. Every cloud has a silver lining.

Probably a big positive since most of them will be vaccinated as well by the time they return to school
I assume you aren't in England then, unless the majority of your dc friends are CEV/live with someone immuno suppressed, which would be a terribly unfortunate coincidence

There's this assumption by some that there is only a binary approach to COVID, and that reading of the stats must fall into one of two camps.

You're either straining at the leash to drop all COVID concerns and believe that it's now "time to get on with life and live with it", and that the figures irrevocably PROVE that it's no longer a threat.

OR

You're a doom merchant who is quivering in their home, wailing at every piece of news, predicting the end of the world is nigh and resolutely REFUSING to believe there are any positive indicators.

I know it's an unpopular thought but there are lots of us in the middle ground. Cautiously optimistic but realistic too. There are many reasons why the downward trend could be misleading - but hopefully not. Of course it could be genuinely good news, so let's keep our fingers crossed. Pointing out that the drop in figures has coincided with schools breaking up doesn't make you a doom merchant - it's stupid to ignore a potential correlation. But even if that IS part of the reason, maybe the extended break for schools/universities plus six more weeks of vaccinations means that by September we'll be in such a strong position that the cases won't rise back up when the kids go back. Let's hope so, and let's hope the cases - and deaths - continue to fall.

School holidays Bristol started wed and thur just gone.
Cases still rising.
50% City double jabbed.
We not on area of concern yet despite massively high 1000plus cases in some suburbs.
Local hospital struggling.

www.bristol.gov.uk/coronavirus/covid-19-data-cases-bristol-r-number-south-west

Bath also rising.

I think in terms of growth this thread from yesterday is also pretty positive news:

James Ward@jamesward73
case growth in the worst-affected age group (20-24s) is falling further and faster than I had dared to expect, now firmly into negative territory: 1/4

other age groups are following, although on slightly less precipitous trends. in particular the growth in older (over-60) age groups is slower to fall, but that's to be expected - so not a concern at this stage. 2/4

so now my overall R estimate for England is poised at a tantalising 1.01. note there is still some incomplete data in this, but it also has 3 days of averaging, so I'd hope for the next day's number to be a bit lower again 🤞. 3/4

I'm still refusing to get too excited, we really don't know what Step 4 is going to mean for case growth, or when exactly it will feed into the data. so please treat any "it's all over" tweets with great caution. but I'd much rather be here than where we were last weekend. /end

Also the pattern is replicated everwhere.

Now the prediction for peaking was supposed to be w/c 4th Aug. It is entirely possible that we've done so a week or so earlier because cases went up quicker than expected and now things are bombing due to a combination of the euros being over, so many people isolating, the weather and now schools being out for summer.

That is why opening was timed for now too though.

I do worry about September but thats for multiple reasons, not just transmission in schools (also other illnesses similar to covid or other childhood illnesses coming back with avengeance.

I think its hold your nerve and cross your fingers and see what the week brings time...

On the subject of schools having only just broken up - which is true for some parts of the country:

• Some parts of the country, schools broke up a couple of weeks ago

• In my area - which is obviously a small sample size - a number of the schools did remote learning for the last fortnight, either due to the number of infections or to prevent the kids catching it and screwing up the much-needed family holidays

• Lots of parents didn't send their kids to school in the last week due to fears over infection - there have been lots of comments/posts on MN about this

Because some children were at school until this last week, the full effect of schools breaking up won't be felt for a week or two, but given the above, there will already have been a contribution to the figures dropping.

Thing is if reinfections are relatively low and vaccinations reduce your chances of being infected (even if it doesn't stop it) and we have a very high rate of vaccinations, there is a point when a population which has 92% with antibodies is going to peak. And thats going to be soon and the decline is likely to be rapid because those most likely to be infected are restricted to certain groups (who mainly socialise with each other)

This isn't doom mongers nor being overly optimistic. There will be a point where even delta starts to run out of hosts. Because maths.

It has to be soon.

The only concern then is waning vaccines which is the next big covid story BUT there are signs the uk gap in doses has benefits in this area AND we are already ahead of the curve in being organised and planning for top ups compared to other countries.

We are by no means out of the woods. But we definitely could be in a worse position and a lot of the worst concerns based on case numbers alone is not properly contextualised with where we are now and is compared to other places and other times.

Where i wouldn't like to be right now is Australia....

Better there than the UK. With Beta heading over...

@ExhaustedFlamingo

There's this assumption by some that there is only a binary approach to COVID, and that reading of the stats must fall into one of two camps.

You're either straining at the leash to drop all COVID concerns and believe that it's now "time to get on with life and live with it", and that the figures irrevocably PROVE that it's no longer a threat.

OR

You're a doom merchant who is quivering in their home, wailing at every piece of news, predicting the end of the world is nigh and resolutely REFUSING to believe there are any positive indicators.

I know it's an unpopular thought but there are lots of us in the middle ground. Cautiously optimistic but realistic too. There are many reasons why the downward trend could be misleading - but hopefully not. Of course it could be genuinely good news, so let's keep our fingers crossed. Pointing out that the drop in figures has coincided with schools breaking up doesn't make you a doom merchant - it's stupid to ignore a potential correlation. But even if that IS part of the reason, maybe the extended break for schools/universities plus six more weeks of vaccinations means that by September we'll be in such a strong position that the cases won't rise back up when the kids go back. Let's hope so, and let's hope the cases - and deaths - continue to fall.

Excellent post!

@TheVampiresWife do you check the number of tests done regularly? This pic you posted says last updated on 22nd July so 3 days ago. Is it always published three days in arrears or might the number of tests be a metric not updated due to this weekend's technical issues?

@Tealightsandd

Better there than the UK. With Beta heading over...

Theres always one. And usually the same suspects...

Also, surely if there are less cases, there will be less testing as people are not unwell and don't feel the need to test.

I think it’s going to be interesting over the next few weeks. Yes schools are now all closed (our school finished 2 days ago) so will see less spread for that, but restrictions have eased it will take a few weeks to see any results from that. We are probably seeing the last of the football cases too, plus I am sure from what I read on mumsnet that some people won’t be testing as they don’t want to have to isolate and ruin their holidays. I wouldn’t want to be on a holiday park as no doubt be people there with symptoms refusing to test. We all have it now, I guess better to get it done at start of summer hols and if we do go abroad we can now get a recovery certified

Up to 900 cases per 100k, and rising, where I live. It's the highest its ever been, so probably depends on where you live.

92% with antibodies, it's estimated (so a guess).

But - how long do those antibodies last?
And which strain are they for?

It doesn't have to be all doom and gloom, no. Particularly as data on the mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) vaccines looks very promising. People are getting breakthrough infections but the vaccines seem to be working well at preventing hospitalisation and death. Perhaps it's the same with Johnson and Johnson and AZ too. Hopefully. Particularly with boosters.

However, to avoid more doom and gloom - or at least limit it, we do need to be prepared for the worst. As the world's experts, including the WHO say, it's important to limit opportunity for the development of potentially vaccine resistant strains.

It's all about balance. Cautiously opening up, but having in place sensible and simple mitigation measures. Like masks and good ventilation.

It doesn't have to be as bad as it could be. With good leadership and planning...

Theres always one. And usually the same suspects...

The lone voice of reason...

...Well, apart from the majority of scientific and medical experts around the world - including but not only those at the WHO...

@Darbs76

I think it’s going to be interesting over the next few weeks. Yes schools are now all closed (our school finished 2 days ago) so will see less spread for that, but restrictions have eased it will take a few weeks to see any results from that. We are probably seeing the last of the football cases too, plus I am sure from what I read on mumsnet that some people won’t be testing as they don’t want to have to isolate and ruin their holidays. I wouldn’t want to be on a holiday park as no doubt be people there with symptoms refusing to test. We all have it now, I guess better to get it done at start of summer hols and if we do go abroad we can now get a recovery certified

If we do peak this week, just watch hospitalisations and deaths.

If people merely aren't testing it will show up in hospitalisations and deaths in a couple of weeks.

As i say, its hold your nerve and cross your fingers time

Yawn and scroll.

@Helpel

No surprise when millions of high school children are no longer testing twice a week. Ridiculous meaningless statistics. I don't know why this isn't being said! But if it means people think it's a good news story and we can get back to a real normal then all good!

@Helpel

LOL LFT's weren't picking up cases, the false negative rate in kids is well over 50 percent.

Don't fall for the Tory swindle on that one