Schools - we just have to bite the bullet...

[Warhertisuff]

It's completely futile to think we can stop Covid spreading through schools in the longer term. Who are we trying to kid? We may be angry that we are in this situation, but we are and we have to live with it.

It seems to be that it will be far better all round if Covid is just treated as we would the flu in schools. From September all teachers and CEV pupils should have been vaccinated, so we may as well just let it happen, with children off school when they are too unwell to attend. At least that way, disruption will be minimised and concentrated into a few weeks at the start of term.

@EducatingArti

No, it is only about 2% of kids with Kong Covid as best they can model it for now, but even that is pretty bad

Things I've seen quote about 8-15 per cent? Would much rather it was 2! Where can I find that info? Thanks

We've been discussing it on the data thread. I think it was the one before last. Because no one really knows for certain yet, there's a whole range of estimates and iirc 2% was a moderate middle of the road one.

Which would be a whole class of kids in a reasonably sized secondary school.

Yes, until its your son.

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/five-year-old-georgia-boy-with-no-underlying-health-issues-dies-of-covid/ar-AAMpaaL?ocid=msedgntp

@noblegiraffe

So your OP has now moved from

"From September all teachers and CEV pupils should have been vaccinated, so we may as well just let it happen"

To "Even though CEV pupils won't have been vaccinated, we may as well just let it happen"

As expected.

I appreciate that it may not be practical to fully vaccinate all CEV children prior to the start of term, and recognise that part of my OP wasn't well enough thought through, but I don't really think it changes my point. For a parent worried about their CEV child, the numbers will be such that they may well look to keep them at home whatever measures are put in place.

My challenge to those who disagree with me is what they would do that would do anything other than prolong the agony. Short of requiring pupils to wear hazmat gear, pupils will be at an appreciable risk of catching Covid, especially Delta, in schools. You can delay the spread by mandating masks in classrooms or requiring bubbles to self-isolate, but that's only going to slow Covid's path.

A few years from now, unless we do literally require pupils to wear hazmat suits, most pupils will likely have been exposed to Covid... We can either:

a) suppress it hard over those years, continuing to disrupt education massively over this period time, with all the damage that does to children, and it wouldn't have prevent most children being exposed over that period, or

b) we recognise that Covid exposure is going to happen whatever we do, so we take measures that minimise disruption, and ensure that any disruption is focussed over a short period in the autumn, rather than extending, literally, for years.

I'd rather bite the bullet and get proper ventilation like some other countries are doing

And go stop damage re isolate, schools should be effortlessly moving to on line lessons as and when is needed.

[quote neveradullmoment99]Yes, until its your son.

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/five-year-old-georgia-boy-with-no-underlying-health-issues-dies-of-covid/ar-AAMpaaL?ocid=msedgntp[/quote]
This is obviously tragic for the child and their parents, but instances like this shouldn't disproportionately influence policy.

Over the past few days, a child will very likely have been killed in a toad traffic accident. Do we ban cars? Another may have been tragically killed falling down stairs. Does it follow that parents are being reckless for not buying bungalows?

• we try and reduce deaths where they occur, so we would should be trying to reduce covid spreading like wildfire in school ie ventilate and maybe lat flow tests

@Lemonmelonsun

I'd rather bite the bullet and get proper ventilation like some other countries are doing

Proper ventilation is a good thing, but it can only hope to slow the spread of Covid somewhat.... I wish it wasn't the case, but it's like King Canute trying hold back the tide!

Regrettably Covid will spread through each and every school. Whether it does that in two months or two years, the result is the same.... only the vain attempts at suppression that would extent the period for two years will cause two further years of significant disruption to Education, for absolutely no gain.

@Lemonmelonsun

* we try and reduce deaths where they occur, so we would should be trying to reduce covid spreading like wildfire in school ie ventilate and maybe lat flow tests

To continue the fire analogy... I can increase the air flow to my wood burner, and the wood will be fully burnt in 30 minutes. Alternatively, I can reduce the air flow and it take 3 hours.

The end result is the same... The wood is burnt to ashes.

@Lemonmelonsun

And go stop damage re isolate, schools should be effortlessly moving to on line lessons as and when is needed.

And how will parents "effortlessly" manage their children, especially primary children, with this?

You see, I'm no Covid denier or sceptic. I supported the first lockdown as the world was facing a deadly unknown novel virus, and the second lockdown, as vaccines were around the corner. I frequently locked horns with those that ridiculed the death projections - time has shown it's very plausible that 250,000 - 500,000 may have died had we let Covid let rip. But we now have a vaccine that's highly effective, and that's a game changer. If we don't ease restrictions now, there's no reason to think we ever will, as there will never be a better time.

@duffeldaisy

"We can't suppress Delta to nothing using vaccines alone."

Well, yes we can... that's the point of them. Look at anything else that's been eradicated and that is exactly what we did. (Though covid is far, far more contagious than most other illnesses), especially the Delta variant.

We can't if we're refusing to vaccinate huge groups of people and letting others go around half-vaccinated with a vaccine that needs two shots though.

The only endemic disease ever to have been eradicated is smallpox.... though we're pretty close with polio.

Realistically, and sadly, we'll never eradicate Covid. For starters, to come close to it, we'd have to vaccinate everyone, including children, and include Covid as one of the jabs babies get. That's not remotely on the horizon.

Over the past few days, a child will very likely have been killed in a toad traffic accident. Do we ban cars?

No we don’t ban cars but we do have speed limits, safety measures and rules to mitigate against injury and death.

• To continue the fire analogy... I can increase the air flow to my wood burner, and the wood will be fully burnt in 30 minutes. Alternatively, I can reduce the air flow and it take 3 hours.

The end result is the same... The wood is burnt to ashes.*

This is not comparable at all.

The cdc studies found that better ventilation in classrooms cuts transmission by 50%.

No we don’t ban cars but we do have speed limits, safety measures and rules to mitigate against injury and death.

And we could do a huge amount more, from yearly testing to stricter penalties for transgressions to taking cars off the road entirely. But even though these things would lead to fewer deaths, we don’t do them.

The cdc studies found that better ventilation in classrooms cuts transmission by 50%.

I’m willing to bet this was pre Delta

@LondonJax

Not every CEV or CV child can have the vaccine.

The only one allowed to children over 12 years old at the moment is Pfizer. The Pfizer/Moderna ones have rare side effects of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) and pericarditis (inflammation of the membrane around the heart).

So children with congenital heart disease can't have the vaccination (unless they also have other vulnerabilities that move them into the 'benefits outweigh the risk category) at the moment as they, potentially, are susceptible to these side effects. It's like the AZ not being offered to under 40s because of the minute risk of clots. But there isn't an alternative for the CHD kids at the moment so they'll have to continue taking their chances. DS's heart consultant at least managed to reassure us when Covid started that he's probably at no more risk than the average kid at the moment given sensible precautions (which have now been taken away unfortunately). We just hope the peak comes quick so that, when he has to return to school, it's on a downward trend. We can isolate him a bit in the holidays but September...it feels a bit like pot luck for him at the moment.

The problem is that 8 out of 1000 babies born each year have a congenital heart disease - some aren't detected until adulthood or until something goes wrong like a collapse. So a vaccination that could, even remotely, cause more problems with defects really needs to be very carefully analysed before even supposedly 'heathy' kids are given it.

Coincidently, my 12 year old DS also has a heart condition. I was extremely worried when Covid arrived on the scene, but his consultant, like yours, reassured me that he was no more at risk than any other 12 year old from Covid. Nothing in the intervening 15 month's from that conversation has changed that. The truth is for many CV children, Covid remains a very low risk (though I accept for some it isn't).

Over the past few days, a child will very likely have been killed in a toad traffic accident. Do we ban cars? Another may have been tragically killed falling down stairs. Does it follow that parents are being reckless for not buying bungalows?

This analogy doesn’t follow at all when it’s applied to covid.

Let’s take your first example of car deaths. Mitigations exist. Residential areas, shopping areas and school zones are either pedestrianised, or have low speed limits and traffic calming measures. Parents can teach children to look both ways, to hold an adult’s hand.

Your second example. Mitigations - put up stair gates. Teach your child to hold the bannister, always go with an adult.

Now in both those examples, those mitigations aren’t perfect, but they exist, and they help.

Yet with covid you think it’s ok to have no mitigations, and everything will be fine. No masks, no vaccines, just “oh well!” What do parents teach their kids in this case? Look both ways before breathing? Doesn’t really work, does it. Treat it like flu, and have a vaccine? Well, there’s another mitigation that covid doesn’t have.

Yet with covid you think it’s ok to have no mitigations, and everything will be fine

The vaccines we have are the ‘mitigations’.

Not perfect, but capable of minimising impact significantly.

@Wildewoodz

* To continue the fire analogy... I can increase the air flow to my wood burner, and the wood will be fully burnt in 30 minutes. Alternatively, I can reduce the air flow and it take 3 hours.

The end result is the same... The wood is burnt to ashes.*

This is not comparable at all.

The cdc studies found that better ventilation in classrooms cuts transmission by 50%.

It's absolutely comparable. Say ventilation did cut transmission by 50%, it will just mean it takes longer for the pupils in that class to get exposed.

If ventilation prevents a pupil, from being exposed the first pupil infected with Covid, they'll still be at risk being exposed from the second, third, or fourth infectious pupil. Ventilation delays, it ultimately doesn't prevent.

Op, then dose of covid you get, determines how ill you get so having ventilation, is key to keeping infection low

There isn't a black and white situation, when covid gets bad, we should at least in secondary and beyond effortlessly switch to on line, masks, bubbles.

IT shouldn't be something that builds and builds and builds whilst stress builds then it explodes and we are locked down for months.

You're assuming that nothing more will be learned about covid over the next few months, that no new treatments will be identified, that nothing at all will change, and so there's nothing to be gained by exposure of the population being gradual rather than fast. I'm not sure that's a good assumption.

Op you do understand if you stand face to face with someone with covid and have a good chat your likely to get a high dose?

@SomeKindOfFloppyWeirdo

Over the past few days, a child will very likely have been killed in a toad traffic accident. Do we ban cars? Another may have been tragically killed falling down stairs. Does it follow that parents are being reckless for not buying bungalows?

This analogy doesn’t follow at all when it’s applied to covid.

Let’s take your first example of car deaths. Mitigations exist. Residential areas, shopping areas and school zones are either pedestrianised, or have low speed limits and traffic calming measures. Parents can teach children to look both ways, to hold an adult’s hand.

Your second example. Mitigations - put up stair gates. Teach your child to hold the bannister, always go with an adult.

Now in both those examples, those mitigations aren’t perfect, but they exist, and they help.

Yet with covid you think it’s ok to have no mitigations, and everything will be fine. No masks, no vaccines, just “oh well!” What do parents teach their kids in this case? Look both ways before breathing? Doesn’t really work, does it. Treat it like flu, and have a vaccine? Well, there’s another mitigation that covid doesn’t have.

The big difference between car accident mitigations and Covid mitigations is that, over a course of a lifetime, car accident mitigations will reduce your likelihood of being involved in a fatal car accident..... whereas Covid mitigations (unless extreme) will only delay your exposure in the world of the Delta variant.

Also, a seatbelt isn't inconvenient at all... Missing out of significant chunks of education s massively damaging.