Will there be another lockdown?

[Kate3150]

Read a few articles about this this morning… I didn’t watch Chris Whitty speak. Can’t imagine him actually saying those words?

Thread title edited by MNHQ with OP's agreement

So OP agrees that Chris Whitty didn’t say that and the media are responsible for manipulation and scaremongering whilst quite happy to have a post that starts with the same manipulative and scaremongering headline. . Reporting

Hospital admissions are increasing. He just said that if it continues we will have to look.at restrictions.

All along people have been saying we will not have another lock down the country can't afford it etc...but if the NHS becomes overwhelmed there will be no other option. Plenty of ifs buts and maybe but he is obviously concerned that the ridiculous freedom day is going to cause issues.

I reported it, at very least the thread title needs changing

@Kate3150

Sorry I genuinely didn’t mean to upset or scare anyone.

So ask for your thread to be removed @Kate3150

You have agreed the title is misleading and you are posting something untrue.

If restrictions are coming, which they may be, it's all the more important to do things now, while we can. In a responsible way, of course. I'm currently reading this while enjoying my breakfast by a Spanish beach.

@nonono1

I don’t understand. 88% of adults have had at least one dose of vaccination, and 67% have had two doses! So why are numbers going up at such a rate?!

Because a third have not had 2 jabs and the delta variant is very infectious . 47% of people who have now got the variant are vaccinated.

Nono. Numbers are racing up as having the vaccine doesnt stop you getting it. Also there has been lockdowns in the past when numbers have reached x per 1000 with covid. Without lockdown capping it that percentage rises.

Which is why we are seeing so many isolations at the moment.

This is a good post. I have come to realise that 'this virus being around forever' means there does have to be an 'exit wave', and it's whether you just want one big one, or whether you keep going in and out of restrictions and basically prolong the agony.

How long does everyone think this “exit wave” will last?

The thread title is misleading however I can’t see why the thread would need to be deleted. It really just states the obvious that it’s very possible there will be another lockdown in the autumn. Hardly scaremongering.

I have asked for the thread to be removed, I really didn’t not mean any malice by it so hopefully it will be removed at some point today.
Sorry again for any upset I’ve caused

The problem is the exponential growth in hospitalisations. If you look at the attached curve it is the same level of steepness as in January. This is not a problem if it tops out in 4 or 5 weeks but if it continues to grow we will undoubtably have some level of restrictions reimposed. Scientists don't seem to be in any agreement on when it will peak. Some models suggest mid August, others October and beyond. If the latter we are in real trouble.

I have reported it too. Otherwise MN turns into The Sun and Daily Fail.

Because a third have not had 2 jabs and the delta variant is very infectious . 47% of people who have now got the variant are vaccinated.

So that’s good news in a way, isn’t it? As those 47% are not likely to get seriously ill from it.

The vaccine programme seems to have slowed down, especially for 1st doses. Are we simply reaching the end of people who actually want the jab (and are able to have it medically?) There are 6.5 million people who are unvaccinated.

It's clear that the idea of the lifting of restrictions being irreversible as gone - Boris mentioned it twice on Monday.

The case numbers are doubling every 9-11 days (? are these numbers still in date) We need only one more doubling to reach the 100,000 cases a day, and as we are jettisoning restrictions, we'll get there. (Look at the rise in cases in The Netherlands when they lifted restrictions, and they weren't in the middle of a pattern of steep rises when they did so)

The link between case numbers and hospitalisation has been weakened from about 9% to 2%. When you case numbers become very high, even that 2% will cause problems for NHS (plus there will be all the associated problems of sick leave across all sectors)

At that point (unfortunately the apparent strength of 'we're sick of it, we won't do another lockdown' means it's unlikely to be at the sweeter spot of a week or so ahead of it) centralised mandatory measures may be needed.

They're going for a Swedish personal responsibility approach - and the commentary I've seen so far suggests that will not translate well to Britain. I'd be delighted to be proved wrong.

Lifting all restriction AND mitigations is utterly ridiculous & irresponsible. They could have lifted restrictions on some things now & others later on & kept masks, distancing etc in place.

They get too wound up on 'steps' then it's all or nothing, it needn't be this way.

Maybe just change the title it’s no more scaremongering than any other coronavirus thread .I still think it’s a load of rubbish but there are many on here that take things as gospel because it’s on the internet.

Thanks @Indigopearl. Mid August is quite far away. October would be a disaster

@Kate3150

I know the papers who have reported this tend to sensationalise but I still get caught up in it. That’s quite a bold statement to make mentioning an almost imminent lockdown

But he didn't mention an almost imminent lockdown. And now you are sensationalising it on mumsnet, too

Unfortunately the vaccine doesn’t stop us getting Covid. It just helps with not needing medical care. I expect most of us to get it (I’ve had it recently and double jabbed) when people are out and about more. I think they are more or less saying that. Not nice but they’ve done what they can and as money makes the world go round, they want us to continue the best we can

More vague

May need to "look again" at restrictions

This is the psychological push to get us to be cautious - high numbers and threat of ‘lockdown’ by media

@nonono1

I don’t understand. 88% of adults have had at least one dose of vaccination, and 67% have had two doses! So why are numbers going up at such a rate?!

In addition to the points already made we have to remember that our country is not just made up of adults. Children are not being vaccinated and certainly where I live most cases have been in children who can't be vaccinated or young adults who have chosen not to be as yet.

@DisgruntledPelican

Worth remembering *@Kate3150* that the opinions of random NHS workers is also just that, an opinion. No one knows what will be happening in a few months. The media want to sell papers and criticise the government. Some people on MN want to sensationalise.

We've already had to declare OPEL level 4 and at one point this week there were no ICU beds in our entire region. In July, before the great free for all, with admissions and covid patients in MV beds already rising.

I don't think you really need to be a rocket scientist to see where this is going tbh.

Given Boris's inability to tell the truth I'm a bit surprised there's anyone left who thinks a reversal of restrictions back to at least pre-May 17th restrictions isn't inevitable by September which is 5-6 weeks away.

so it could easily run out of control.

It is out of control.

Just saying...

@MrsTerryPratchett

If numbers are going up in summer, you've fucked it up.

Why?

The numbers are expected to go up

We are in for a very rough ride in the coming months and dare I say year(s) ahead. COVID is here to stay. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a new set of restrictions brought in later in the year but I doubt there will be a full lock down. By restrictions I mean things like nightclubs shut again, mass gatherings banned etc.

TBH I’m concerned about the holiday we’ve booked for next May let alone anything this year.