New Boris Statement: Where is this going?

[DadAManger]

‘We recommend masks but only recommend them’
‘Deaths will increase and we may reach 100,000 new cases per day’
‘We must open now and if not now, when?’
‘The slower we take it, the smaller number of people will die’
‘Return to the office of you can, otherwise keep working from home’

Just before Boris spoke, there was a BBC piece claiming that 10-20% of all Covid cases (mild, without symptoms, or otherwise) will be long-Covid cases of some sort or another. Now there a million long-Covid cases.

Are we aiming for herd immunity? Anyone else think this is going to be confusing for most and lead to a default setting of ‘normal’? Where is this going?

@EverythingWillFallInLine

Really the impression I get is that they lost control long ago but have to open up because they don't want to put any more money into keeping closed.

Also, they don't care at all about the people who will get it and be badly affected by it/die from it. They never did. Their only "policy" , such as it was, for the so-called "vulnerable" was to exclude them even further from society than they already were. To marginalize their work, personal and leisure opportunities even more than they already were. And then leave them.

This sums it up.

@CallmeHendricks

"Personal responsibility" is the biggest cop-out I've ever heard. As I think has been pointed out already, how would that work for traffic speed-limits?

The government isn't going to hold your hand and tell you what to do forever. I swear a lot of people are going to struggle with not being nannied anymore.

Also the government have done nothing to support education! Like my daughter has been waiting over a year for therapies because the therapists were helping on Covid wards…… opening up before children’s needs. Literally can see the schools being closed in September 🤦🏼‍♀️

Cindy Perhaps that makes you a troll or a bot, programmed to follow my posts on this site?

🤖

@TheDailyCarbunkle you speak sense. I don’t see it very often.

We have to get real about this virus. Some clever scientist said early on in this pandemic that in a few years we will look back and see that whatever we did to try and control it would make no difference in the long run. That all developed countries would come out level pegging in the end re. mortality

Lockdowns simply kick the can down the road. You can run, but you can’t hide…only the true science will save you and that is vaccination. In the vast majority of cases. Sadly, that is not 100% of cases.

Interesting article about whether or not it’s even possible to reach herd immunity:

www.wired.co.uk/article/covid-19-herd-immunity

Good article, @bumbleymummy

As the article says, the delta variant has a higher R0, so the herd immunity threshold is 80 - 85%, higher than the HIT for the original variant. Even if every adult in the UK was vaccinated, that would only be 78%.

What it doesn't mention is that that is 80 - 85% if the vaccine/infection provide sterilising immunity ie you can't catch or transmit the virus. That isn't the case, they only give partial immunity and don't fully prevent transmission, so the HIT will be even higher or impossible.

It does rather feel like we are in an experiment to see if herd immunity is possible by everyone being either vaccinated or infected in a short period of time... I guess, if you are going to do that, it's better to do it before everyone who wants to be vaccinated is double vaccinated and that slows transmission to the extent that not enough unvaccinated people will catch the virus at the same time so the HIT is never reached. If transmission is too slow, you could get in a cycle where, before enough people have been vaccinated/infected to reach the HIT, immunity has waned in some people so they need to be vaccinated or catch the virus again.

I doubt that much thought has gone into the government's plans though.

I think there’s going to be massive disruption. I can’t really understand how people think things will just be normal. If you look at schools they can’t run effectively with lots of people off sick. You can’t make progress through the curriculum with part of the class off constantly plus possibly teaching staff, support staff, SEN support. Parents have to stay home to look after kids. Lots of people being unwell causes massive disruption, even if you aren’t worried about anything else. I honestly don’t agree we’ve done what we can currently. On a personal level after 2 vaccines I feel that’s reasonable to say for me but it’s certainly not true for many other people.

We need to start making money. There is no magic money tree - without people to work and pay taxes there will be no NHS.

In a couple of days time if the Tories get their way there WILL be no NHS. Their Health and Care Bill will destroy it

twitter.com/JujuliaGrace/status/1414511411640811520

On top of all the fallout of lockdown, we also have the fallout of a system that behaved as if it was overrun, by cancelling appointments, treatments and operations, even when it wasn't. What on earth was the point????

To complete the privatisation of the NHS?
I see Javid's already doubled the estimate of the backlog, which could easily precede involving the private sector to help clear it, and from that other opportunities could arise

In fairness involving them could have merit, but is there anyone left who imagines it would be done for the good of the general population rather than as a crony-funding exercise?

@Tealightsandd

and of course, there is nothing to prevent anyone choosing to continue wearing a mask if they wish

Why are smokers not allowed to exercise their personal responsibility to smoke in public indoor spaces. There's nothing to prevent non smokers not smoking if they don't wish to do so.

completely irrelevant

This is a truly strange comparison. Are you seriously equating lighting up a carcinogenic drug with simply being a breathing human being?

Both have potentially dangerous exhalations, and the more exhalations you encounter the greater the chance of harm.

Best way to prevent thus happening, by preventing exhalations indoors

@BungleandGeorge

I think there’s going to be massive disruption. I can’t really understand how people think things will just be normal. If you look at schools they can’t run effectively with lots of people off sick. You can’t make progress through the curriculum with part of the class off constantly plus possibly teaching staff, support staff, SEN support. Parents have to stay home to look after kids. Lots of people being unwell causes massive disruption, even if you aren’t worried about anything else. I honestly don’t agree we’ve done what we can currently. On a personal level after 2 vaccines I feel that’s reasonable to say for me but it’s certainly not true for many other people.

There are two weeks left in the term. Then, if a lot of children get covid over the summer, they'll come back to school with a level of immunity. Unless you believe that somehow children are going to get covid over and over and over I don't see how you think there'll still be massive disruption in September. Illnesses go around all the time - it's just a fact of life. The difference with covid is that it's new and there's not high immunity to it. The way to solve that is to let it go around.

@trollopolis

This is a truly strange comparison. Are you seriously equating lighting up a carcinogenic drug with simply being a breathing human being?

Both have potentially dangerous exhalations, and the more exhalations you encounter the greater the chance of harm.

Best way to prevent thus happening, by preventing exhalations indoors

Wow. I feel I should frame this comment as the summing up of covid madness in one bonkers nutshell.

@Rockitrosie

They're killing off the most vulnerable in society.

You mean the virus will kill off some of the most vulnerable in society. You do know the government aren’t personally responsible for killing everyone off - whatever your views on them individually, loathe them fine - but they are not going around sniping people?

There was a CV woman on the news earlier saying something along the vein of “I am immuno-suppressed and have had both jabs AND actually had covid and I’m still open to catching it again as I have no antibodies”…
And my honest reaction was “And”? So she’s had covid and survived? I mean, what exactly does she expect the rest of society to do? I could be run over by a bus tomorrow, or get cancer. I feel very sorry for her, it must be scary and I feel for anyone with a CV child but honestly, what should we do? Covid is here to stay. Keeping restrictions is just kicking the can further down the road. I’m guessing if you are that ill/CV you could also be killed by catching flu or another virus?
There are going to be so many people/kids who are going to have shit lives and die of other things not because of but relating to covid. Industries lost/businesses shutting down/kids bearing the brunt of this is so many different ways/people’s mental health down the toilet.

We need to start making money. There is no magic money tree - without people to work and pay taxes there will be no NHS. The economy needs to start moving again. We are going to be paying back the cost of covid for years and years - not just financially.

What do people who want to stay with restrictions/lockdowns expect the government to actually do?

And don’t say keep masks as they are next to useless anyway (I’m going to wear mine in enclosed spaces to help others feel safer but I do not believe it really protects me or others much).

The vaccine seems to be working very well. They cannot wait to ease restrictions until September when most adults will be vaccinated to open up, as then it will be too close to winter and the usual pressure on the NHS when cases inevitably rise.

There will probably never be a “good” time to do it, but opening now gives us a better chance of not having the NHS overwhelmed.

Yup, agree almost completely (I think masks do have a use to help protect others, and as a visual reminder of what this is all about). It's a shitty disease, and we can each take steps to protect ourselves but there's no certainty. Opening up now is better than opening up in winter months, and the alternative is ... wait until summer 2022? How much of the economy will be left by then? Covid isn't the only killer

Carbunkle surely you are aware that India locked down absolutely rigidly and people were terrified. The numbers in India dropped because of lockdown and for no other reason.

@trollopolis

This is a truly strange comparison. Are you seriously equating lighting up a carcinogenic drug with simply being a breathing human being?

Both have potentially dangerous exhalations, and the more exhalations you encounter the greater the chance of harm.

Best way to prevent thus happening, by preventing exhalations indoors

Wow.

@MrsPsmalls

Carbunkle surely you are aware that India locked down absolutely rigidly and people were terrified. The numbers in India dropped because of lockdown and for no other reason.

Numbers dropped well before lockdown had any effect. I'll search out the evidence tomorrow (not available at the moment) but even pure logic will tell you that with the shooting up of infections that happened, no lockdown would have had an effect that quickly - the virus hit its natural stopping point. What I'm saying isn't even new or controversial, it's completely accepted science and yet for covid there seems to be a totally unsubstantiated belief that this virus will somehow keep going and going, even when people are vaccinated, immune post infection, naturally self isolating due to feeling ill. It makes no sense.

I'm now going to strut around, and observe, like a meercat, whilst also continuing to wear a mask in certain circumstances.

@Tealightsandd

Even people with mild infections can still transmit it.

There's nothing to transmit if and when the majority (80-90%) are vaccinated.

Biden was right about vaccine patent waiver. It's the best and quickest way to get the whole of the world vaccinated.

The virus doesn’t magically disappear when 80-90% are vaccinated - particularly when vaccinated people can still transmit it.

@AlecTrevelyan006 they’re the only deaths being regularly reported though so people have a very skewed perception of how many people are dying from it in relation to other causes of death.

@AnyFucker 100% agree. The virus will kill whoever it's going to kill regardless of lockdown. It's here forever and everyone will get it or a version of it, at some point whether it's this year, next year or in 10, 20, 50 years time. As individuals we'll only find out whether we can survive it or not once we get it.

It is evolution and survival of the fittest. Those that can survive having the virus will be those best placed to live in a world with covid. It's harsh but no different to the evolution of all living things since the big bang.

Wow indeed - seem the advice to the CEV, saying the more people you meet indoors the greater the risk, so don't do it. Stay outdoors or improve ventilation.

It's exactly how to keep away from exhalations of second hand smoke. There might be 100 people in the room and only one is smoking, but nearly everyone in the room will be aware of it. Same with when covid rates are 1:100, which my area reached last week

Best way to prevent thus happening, by preventing exhalations indoors

Riiiiight. How you going to police that one?

Effectively there is still belief in the Imperial model, even when there is literally not one shred of evidence that it's accurate and all the actual available evidence shows that it's pure nonsense.

The uk government has literally lost the fucking plot.

They could wait a few weeks, push through the vaccine program and get it done, is the really obvious answer to the question "if not now, when?".

We have a save way of getting herd immunity but nah, fuck it, let's risk more people dying needlessly, more strain on the NHS and all the problems that causes, more people with long covid and let's give the virus literally the best chance possible at mutating into a form which DOES significantly bypass the existing vaccines.

It's fucking lunacy.