New Boris Statement: Where is this going?

[DadAManger]

‘We recommend masks but only recommend them’
‘Deaths will increase and we may reach 100,000 new cases per day’
‘We must open now and if not now, when?’
‘The slower we take it, the smaller number of people will die’
‘Return to the office of you can, otherwise keep working from home’

Just before Boris spoke, there was a BBC piece claiming that 10-20% of all Covid cases (mild, without symptoms, or otherwise) will be long-Covid cases of some sort or another. Now there a million long-Covid cases.

Are we aiming for herd immunity? Anyone else think this is going to be confusing for most and lead to a default setting of ‘normal’? Where is this going?

@TableFlowerss I don't think there'll be another full lockdown. But there may well be certain restrictions imposed again.

We all a re learning to live with it, but living with it and being cautious or simply giving everyone a licence to ditch every precaution are different things

Maybe poor cw is not well but tonight! Wow! Angry, stumbling... Referring to letters... Consenus, how many letter and from where!!

There is no reason to say we will be in lockdown by winter.

There is every reason to think we are 4-5 weeks away from a lockdown

If we hit 100,000-200,000 infections with a 10-20% long covid rate that's 10,000-20,000 people with long covid with accompanying treatment and economic effects (including being able to staff hospitals and schools). We dont have the long clinic places for that.

That's assuming hospital admissions dont rise. Which actually they are starting to because a very small percentage of a very large amount is still a very large amount.... and not many under 18s are vaccinated at all

That's assuming we are right and children aren't badly affected. Which is fine as long as viral load isnt a key factor in the severity of infection. So far everywhere has lockdowned schools when infection rates has risen, so viral load kids have been exposed to is generally low. We don't know the impact on young people when there is a heavy viral load. (Well actually if we look at India and early wuhan we do, age of hospitalizations get younger).

And let's repeat it there is no plans to vaccinate our youth... we are the only country not doing this.

[quote Amboseli]@TableFlowerss I don't think there'll be another full lockdown. But there may well be certain restrictions imposed again.[/quote]
Possibly, but I genuinely don’t think there will be. I think it’ll get worse in the coming weeks, but it will get better at which point it will become apparent that it actually was the right thing to do.

We’ll wait and see I suppose

I'm concerned about viral load and severity of corresponding infection.

@oneglassandpuzzled

Thing is, some of those who really ought to be most considerate about their behaviour are least likely to be so. Unvaccinated yobs (not saying this is all the unvaccinated group, of course) aren’t likely to wear masks on the tube or self-isolate.

"Unvaccinated yobs"?

From what I read on MN, it is the vaccinated who are not wearing masks or self isolating because they think they are safe.

I'm concerned about viral load and severity of corresponding infection.

I think viral load is going to turn out to be key. Especially in long covid.

Anything that reduces your viral load is going to be so important in the next few months

I agree @TableFlowerss

And let's repeat it there is no plans to vaccinate our youth... we are the only country not doing this.

What the hell are we marching this generation in to? Of all the ill judged decisions taken I feel this one is going to really come back to haunt us.

I think no masks will backfire economically because a lot of people will not want to use public transport and go to galleries etc - if they kept masks these people would go out

Would? So they havent already even though masks have been mandatory in shops for a year.

inews.co.uk/news/politics/ministers-ditched-face-masks-after-being-warned-the-economy-would-lose-billions-1089589

moat people who are vulnerable to issues ar in overly dense urban towns, not fucking beatrix potter hamlets

You have no idea what you are talking about.

Imo BJ is washing his hands of the situation and putting the ball firmly in businesses and individuals to decide for themselves.
So when it goes tits up we get the blame not him and his inadequate Govt.

Is it just me or does anyone else think it’s a fake good news story?! Tell the population what they want to hear but actually loads of people will still be restricted and that may be enough to help control things from getting too far out of hand

I.e. Let’s tell everyone that it’s freedom time no restrictions open everything up etc, that will make infection rates rocket which in turn means thousands of people getting “pinged” all the time and repeatedly, they are then at home self isolating - becomes irrelevant what restrictions there are then for those people as can’t go out to enjoy it anyway.

Even if just for few days at time whilst waiting for negative tests it’s still a massive amount of people that are at home effectively in their own little lockdowns over and over again and all over the country, achieving the opposite of the freedoms announcements

Also, they don't care at all about the people who will get it and be badly affected by it/die from it. They never did. Their only "policy" , such as it was, for the so-called "vulnerable" was to exclude them even further from society than they already were. To marginalize their work, personal and leisure opportunities even more than they already were. And then leave them

YY @EverythingWillFallInLine And Labour cheered it on.

From a lifelong Labour voter who will never vote Labour again.

@Backofbeyond50

Imo BJ is washing his hands of the situation and putting the ball firmly in businesses and individuals to decide for themselves. So when it goes tits up we get the blame not him and his inadequate Govt.

I think this - precisely. Added to this, there are a whole group of Tory backbenchers (including the infamous 1922 C’tee) who want to get everyone back into the city centre sandwich shops and cafes ASAP, since their large commercial landlord friends are facing a further ‘can’t pay, won’t pay’ revolt from commercial tenants.

I really struggle to understand why those of us who are a little more cautious are painted as 'only caring about covid', 'lockdown lovers', 'covid nuts' or something equally inane.

The very reason most of us are cautious is because of all the knock on effects, especially in healthcare. My ICU consultant friend has been posting about this tonight, how they are getting overwhelmed with lots of different illnesses at present, and covid admissions pile on more pressure. Our hospital keeps getting sent patients from other hospitals who can't take them. So the more covid admissions - which will happen - the worse it is for everything else and the worse for the health service, mental health services and everything else.

It just baffles me that people seem to think we are all about covid to the exclusion of all else, when many of us are worried about the all else.

Yes, we will have to live with covid. But the vaccines are making a huge difference and we could just do with a bit longer to get numbers up to something resembling a herd immunity level, so that everyone else struggling with any health condition doesn't keep getting pushed back down the line (myself included).

It also baffles me that people seem to think that once restrictions are eased suddenly waiting lists will start to shrink. In what world?

I really struggle to understand. Am I alone?

[quote Tinydancer321]@XenoBitch well Personnally I wouldn’t know why when gyms are open! Surely you didn’t need this stage for them to be open!!
That’s the government failings there as they should of been re open when gyms and exercise classes were.[/quote]
It makes no sense to me either if I'm honest. My local MIND is not running groups "due to Covid", as is the local IAPT service. I attended a "crisis cafe" recently (is meant to be an alternative to A&E etc for people in crisis). They were not allowed to serve any drinks, despite Costa 2 minutes away doing exactly that.

Effectively there is still belief in the Imperial model, even when there is literally not one shred of evidence that it's accurate and all the actual available evidence shows that it's pure nonsense

Laura Dodsworth has discussed this in her book A State of Fear but this thread will probably be deleted soon now ive brought it up.

Three weeks freedom - infection levels surging:

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57811538

The people I experience shouting loudest tend to be pensioners and people on benefits where they finical security hasn't changed

State pension household here and DH and i both agree with you.

Well said @Madhairday !

Don’t forget the criticism that we’re all hysterical as well.

Some people need dictionaries…

[quote BungleandGeorge]@TheDailyCarbunkle I think you need to look at the modelling and expert opinion of what is likely to happen with children. And no it’s not that the majority of children will get it in the summer. It’s that there will be a reservoir of infection which will hit from September onwards when schools return. And yes of course you can get covid multiple times, we already know that. Schools are just one example but it applies to workplaces- too many people off at the same time causes massive disruption.[/quote]
Risk of reinfection is very low:

www.gov.uk/government/news/new-national-surveillance-of-possible-covid-19-reinfection-published-by-phe

Speaking of benefits and security.....

we received a PIP letter over the weekend There have been some changes in the PIP law that affect how PIP claims are decided. (in our case it says DH isnt affected) but here is a list from the back of the letter.

The people affected by these changes will most likely have a severe
cognitive impairment
intellectual impairment
developmental impairment
mental health condition.
Or a condition affecting the brain and nervous system with symptoms such as
blackouts fits or faints with loss of consciousness.

@Backofbeyond50

Imo BJ is washing his hands of the situation and putting the ball firmly in businesses and individuals to decide for themselves. So when it goes tits up we get the blame not him and his inadequate Govt.

@Backofbeyond50 fully agree