Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

McGowan has already said, once all adults have been offered then we wouldn't lock down to protect those who won't help themselves

The thing is, you’re not locking down to protect people from Covid, you’re locking down to prevent the collapse of the healthcare system. You’re locking down so that people can get diagnosed with cancer early, you’re locking down so that ongoing life-saving medical treatment can continue, you’re locking down so that A&E can continue to function, you’re locking down so that babies can be born safely... From the view of government’s around the world, lockdown is not about stopping people from dying, it’s about preventing the infrastructure from collapse. If Australia doesn’t manage to vaccinate enough people, it’s not simply going to be a case of let those who don’t want the vaccine get covid. It will still affect the whole society.

I think the issue is that even with very high levels of vaccination there will still be very significant numbers of infections once you let Covid move through the population. The levels of infection will be higher in a population where the immunity is only vaccine generated and isn't supplemented by natural immunity.

I get the impression that the message is, keep covid out, vaccinate widely, open up and all will be well.

My concern is that without the additional immunity that arises as a result of natural infection the exit wave in zero covid countries will be so significant that further lockdowns will be required to keep levels manageable. That would mean that in practical terms things might actually seem worse post vaccine than pre vaccine.

I might be wrong about that but with Delta it seems pretty likely. I'm not sure if that possibility is being widely considered/discussed?

@AllAussieAdventures

How would Australia/NZ suffering have reduced the rest of the worlds? I am interested to know?

I guess misery loves company.

The vaccines have to be enough. There is no other long term solution.

It exists now. We can't stay locked down/away forever.

All we can do is mitigate as best we can and get on with it.

I agree. But I struggle to see how Australia goes from its current lockdown mania to mitigation. They’ve been too terrorised by state leaders and the media — friends I talk to insist Covid has a 2-3% death rate. They tell me people will be dropping in the streets if they let it rip.

Australian researchers threw everything at developing our own vaccines. Unfortunately the best local option proved to have problems and was abandoned.

NSW failure of political leadership. twitter.com/theage/status/1420863644863172608?s=19

I think it’s a massive mistake not to be using your AZ stockpiles. If cases start rising exponentially now, as seems likely, I think this will be your biggest regret.

@RoseWineTime

I think it’s a massive mistake not to be using your AZ stockpiles. If cases start rising exponentially now, as seems likely, I think this will be your biggest regret.

The state v state vitriol in the replies. Yikes.

^ apologies, that was a reply to @StartupRepair

@RoseWineTime

I think it’s a massive mistake not to be using your AZ stockpiles. If cases start rising exponentially now, as seems likely, I think this will be your biggest regret.

This is happening. Unfortunately the messaging and changing age limits has left a lot of people confused and hesitant. AZ is now available to anyone 18+ who wants it, and is now available to them through the hubs from today (previously had to be through GP if under the age limit).

Good article on the dangers of assuming the vaccines are the way out for Oz:

www.smh.com.au/national/our-anger-is-focused-on-vaccination-but-is-it-fed-by-a-dangerous-mythology-20210729-p58dw7.html#comments

“But if, in making the slow rollout such a singular focus of our anger, we assume it’s the singular cause of our predicament, then we will inevitably assume it should deliver our singular solution.

Beneath the anger, then, lies a comforting assumption that might be yet another myth. And what if, having laboured under that myth, it eventually comes to pass that the rollout is done but our problems are not? My fear is that having discovered our shortcut is a mirage, we might fall apart completely.”

I don't feel terrorised and I don't know anyone who does.

It doesn't matter how we feel about vaccines really. There are no other choices.

We simply cannot afford to stay locked away forever and that won't work anyway.

There is no win/win solution. There are only least bad options.

What is the army going to be DOING? (well, apart from stimulating the senses of those with a "HARD LOCKDOWN" fetish, that is?)

If the virus has seeded itself in NSW, it'll be spreading in places where people are allowed to be even in the hardest lockdown---between family members inside households, within hospitals, inside essential workplaces that cannot be shut down unless everyone in NSW decides they are OK living without water, electricity, medicines and food for the foreseeable.

It's unlikely to be "maskless people exercising outside" who are spreading it.
Didn't we have all this nonsense last year in the UK?

The last word on this pandemic, always, will end up being "People Wasted Time Worrying About The Wrong Things."

Time to get those crates of AZ out of the back of the shop, I think.

I know so many stranded Ozzies here and it is a heartbreaking situation for them. Really hping Oz can get jabbing quick and get everyone back to normal sooner rather than later.

Using the ADF in this matter, in this area is very problematic.

South Western Sydney has a large refugee population. Many of these people have a (quite valid) FEAR of soldiers.

So sending uniformed soldiers to knock on doors and tell people to stay away from their families? How the hell do we think that is going to go down?

It isn't right and I am not sure it is going to work. It is reaching towards that pinch point I referenced upthread, when is the price of 'safety' too high? When there is army on the streets? I think we are getting there.

"matter" in the above should be "manner".

@Kokeshi123 I agree. I think the army are being used purely to make it look like we are having a super hard lockdown and taking it seriously. I’ve heard people calling for mask wearing outside even when walking alone - why? No medical reason at all. It’s not spreading like this. It’s spreading in essential workplaces and people’s homes, just like in the U.K.

If it were spreading readily in supermarkets and people out walking or exercising we would have a much bigger problem than we do now, and basically may as well give up on any preventative measures right now. If you look at the ever growing list of places visited by people with Covid, if it was spreading there, we would be at thousands of cases by now.

@AllAussieAdventures

Using the ADF in this matter, in this area is very problematic.

South Western Sydney has a large refugee population. Many of these people have a (quite valid) FEAR of soldiers.

So sending uniformed soldiers to knock on doors and tell people to stay away from their families? How the hell do we think that is going to go down?

It isn't right and I am not sure it is going to work. It is reaching towards that pinch point I referenced upthread, when is the price of 'safety' too high? When there is army on the streets? I think we are getting there.

I was just about to write pretty much the same thing. I'm wondering if there's a language barrier in many of these areas and their not understanding some of the rules? Although the rules can be confusing enough for those of us whose first language is English. Wear a mask when outside, you only have to wear a mask when in certain venues, only people in certain areas have to wear a mask, check in using the QR code if you want to, everyone must check in using the QR code, fines may apply if you don't follow orders, you will be fined if you don't follow orders, NSW is in lockdown, NSW isn't having a proper lockdown, and on and on it goes. No wonder some feel confused.

I think they are hoping to put off another massive protest by a group of morons punching horses and throwing potplants at mounted police, and shouting about their 'rights' while spreading covid amongst one another, which is scheduled for this weekend.

It us also extra boots on the ground for doorknocking those supposed to be isolating, etc. Helped in Victoria.

The ADF being used against Australian Citizens is more likely to incite protest than supress it in my opinion.

Hazzard is trying to reassure people that our government is not like those 'other' governments you may have fled from.

I am feeling a bit fighty. And I am a wealthy white woman, sitting in her big house with her fed, protected and educated children who has never been given a reason to fear my government before.

We need to be careful, these are people, they are our people, they are not 'strollers' as I have seen used in various ways, they are not virus carriers. They are our people.

And South Western Sydney provides a powerhouse of labour for NSW. To judge people who must go to work, who we need to go to work and who get paid shit and probably rely on family for doing that work?

I am a pragmatic person, I am interested in what will work, and if we go down this path then it may be Covid will be the least of our problems.

The ADF being used against Australian Citizens is more likely to incite protest than supress it in my opinion.

I don't think they are being used against anyone. They are being enrolled to assist in a medical emergency.

The protest is already organised and being publicised on sm; I have no idea if they will be helping the police with that, just suggested it may be possible.

You do like an italic, though!

Commissioner Fuller said the ADF assistance would allow police to double the number of house calls they can make in the eight local government areas (LGAs) of concern.

"There's 2,000 doors we have to knock so to bring Defence in made logistical sense," he said.

"We can double the amount of checks we do in a day by doing a police officer with a member of the ADF.

"They don't come with powers and they won't be carrying firearms but they come with an enormous amount of training, very disciplined, they understand the task."

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/adf-soldiers-to-arrive-in-sydney-covid19-lockdown/100336124

@AllAussieAdventures I very much agree with you. I popped out earlier to pick up some books from my son’s school and found myself thinking “oh dear I have to go to the shops later, I wonder if I’m allowed to do this errand as well” and then feeling just so bloody irritated that the government can control my life to this extent.
I also want facts - how many cases are being spread my mask less people outside? How many spread by groups exercising together? If we are to have rules imposed on us, I want them to be based on evidence, not arbitrary.
This started for me with speed cameras - they are raising millions of dollars and yet speed related deaths have not dropped. The government should not be able to just introduce rules that are not evidence based (and I don’t disagree with speed cameras but what is their point if they don’t stop speed related deaths and injuries?)

@psychomath there were two instances of removalists unfortunately, the first travelled for work and spread it to Melbourne, however they weren't aware they had it.

The second pair knew and broke isolation deliberately.

Might be where the confusions coming from

I am also not terrified of Covid, nor is anyone I know. What we are terrified of is remaining in lockdown for months. It's not so much fear of illness but fear of the measures required to managed it back down.

Gladys has fucked this up so bad. And she's still pissing around with "mockdowns" (a term I heard recently which is very apt for what's going on in Sydney).

The rest of Australia shut their borders tight to Victoria, leaving us to lockdown for months to get our borders open.

The amount of conspiracy theroiest in Australia is mind-blowing. So many think it's actually just a terrible flu that they can't understand why the world reacted as it did.

Now we have vaccines, not many here want them 😣

Dh and I are double vaxed. I'm getting to the point where I'm thinking just let natural selection look after the dickheads but I've got parents who have severe health issues and I don't want our healthcare overrun by idiots whose immune systems can't naturally fight this variant off.