Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

@Jackgrealishscurtains

Surely Australia now needs to stop concentrating on trying to contain the virus, and start concentrating on getting everyone vaccinated? Same with all of the 'zero Covid' countries?

We are. Only problem is out government fucked with ordering vaccines and now we don’t have enough Pfizer for the people that need it. AZ is our only other vaccine until we get Moderna later in the year.

NSW are begging other states for their meagre supplies of Pfizer despite other states having outbreaks and lockdowns. That started in travellers from NSW. Not surprisingly other states have told NSW to go fuck themselves. It’s a shot show.

The zero Covid bubble has well and truly been broken now and we need to turbocharge our vaccination program. For now our strategy is for asking under 40’s to visit a GP for a consultation and get AZ. This is against current medical advice for most of the country so you could well get a GP who refuses to give you the vaccine. Sounds efficient doesn’t it?

Yes, what is the point of trying to surpress Delta once everyone is vaccinated? There has to be an 'exit wave', basically it has to spread through the population in order to get the infection based population immunity. Obviously they want their health services to be able to cope, but it feels like it's just prolonging the agony a little bit?

What's the craic in New Zealand at the moment?

New Zealand from what I can gather from my relatives there is still looking at the U.K. in “ horror “ and no doubt looking at Australia that way too.
They are even slower at vaccination than Australia.

It might seem counter initiative but in terms of vaccine take up, a delta outbreak is actually a very good thing for Australia. It shakes people out of complacency and changes the all important “risk analysis” when it comes to the vaccine.
It seems obvious to me that our vaccine roll out was so speedy exactly because we were in the middle of the Christmas/ January wave. It’s hard to know for sure but it’s very possible.
Outbreaks concentrate the mind!

Intuitive not initiative

@sashagabadon

New Zealand from what I can gather from my relatives there is still looking at the U.K. in “ horror “ and no doubt looking at Australia that way too. They are even slower at vaccination than Australia.

It might seem counter initiative but in terms of vaccine take up, a delta outbreak is actually a very good thing for Australia. It shakes people out of complacency and changes the all important “risk analysis” when it comes to the vaccine.
It seems obvious to me that our vaccine roll out was so speedy exactly because we were in the middle of the Christmas/ January wave. It’s hard to know for sure but it’s very possible.
Outbreaks concentrate the mind!

Very true - we sort of needed the January outbreak to give people the kick up the arse to get vaccinated, and that's what happened!

It feels like NZ is kind of standing at the edge of a cliff that they are going to have to jump off of themselves sooner or later, watching everyone else go first!

It looks like there is increasing frustration over lockdowns in Australia. As they see more and more countries unlocking and getting on with it this will snowball. I think Australia have really fucked up their exit strategy.

I'm living in Sydney right now. The writing's on the wall- the NSW government is going to ramp up vaccination and then remove restrictions once we get to a certain level. I've been vaccine hesitant but now I'll probably get astra zeneca (no pfizer available for me as a 33 year old until who knows when) within the next few weeks.
Although the current NSW outbreak amongst a largely unvaccinated population is not ideal, i think it will force people to start taking vaccination seriously and ultimately position us for a better exit strategy than the other States. It will be interesting to see how they deal with going from "zero COVID" to living post vaccination- especially WA who is the strictest zero covid state.
The political sniping between States is unnecessary and they should shut up and focus on our exit strategy imo.

I’m fairly confident that the SA lockdown will be lifted by this time next week, then I think things will be similar to how it was last April/may but with masks.

I

If they brought back jobseeker and Jobkeeper in a more intelligent way ie: not paying our billions to companies making a millions in profit.
Then less people would be pissed off about lockdown and be able to pay their mortgages or rent.

AZ is a very good vaccine and you're in a race against time.

@Theresa88

I'm living in Sydney right now. The writing's on the wall- the NSW government is going to ramp up vaccination and then remove restrictions once we get to a certain level. I've been vaccine hesitant but now I'll probably get astra zeneca (no pfizer available for me as a 33 year old until who knows when) within the next few weeks. Although the current NSW outbreak amongst a largely unvaccinated population is not ideal, i think it will force people to start taking vaccination seriously and ultimately position us for a better exit strategy than the other States. It will be interesting to see how they deal with going from "zero COVID" to living post vaccination- especially WA who is the strictest zero covid state. The political sniping between States is unnecessary and they should shut up and focus on our exit strategy imo.

Writing has always been on the wall with the NSW liberals, Profit before people.

I’m in Sydney too.
I’m expecting an election delay announcement anytime soon.
One very valid reason is covid and the other is the exposure of of the true level of corruption with the NSW govt.
Glady’s office can only shred so much before it’s a fire hazard.

The pandemic has exposed Gladys and Morrison for the corrupt and bungling idiots they are with no moral compass.
Opening up and 'living with' the virus risks terrible consequences for Aboriginal Australians in remote communities.

@StartupRepair

The pandemic has exposed Gladys and Morrison for the corrupt and bungling idiots they are with no moral compass. Opening up and 'living with' the virus risks terrible consequences for Aboriginal Australians in remote communities.

Why would Covid be worse for aboriginal Australians than those from other backgrounds?

It feels like NZ is kind of standing at the edge of a cliff that they are going to have to jump off of themselves sooner or later, watching everyone else go first!

Indeed, what seemed like a great strategy last year now seems unsustainable... The problem will be more psychological than anything. Kiwis have been conditioned into thinking every case is disastrous, and are horrified at the U.K. with its tens of thousands of new cases every day, where most Brits are pretty blaze about it now.

@Warhertisuff Aboriginal Australians sadly already have worse health outcomes, shorter life expectancy and often live days away from medical services. This is why they are particularly vulnerable.

@Warhertisuff & @StartupRepair Aboriginal Australians may well have lower immunity anyway because of their ethnicity its an unknown - do they have higher levels of diabetes by any chance?
2 of my adult children are in their young 30's &both had AZ jab before the panic set in - they were & are fine.
There are a very very few unlucky people who had this autoimmune reaction - & I do wonder if they had had covid whether they would have had a bad outcome (cytokine storm?) to it. The main point is this now the hospitals & the person vaccinated know the symptoms you go to the hospital they check your platelet level & if their is a problem they treat it asap - its very rare - that should prevent this if it does occur. There were younger people (Medical staff & vulnerable) who took this before this issue became known. My Adult dc (also another slightly older daughter) where happy & glad to have it.

@JellyBabiesFan

It looks like there is increasing frustration over lockdowns in Australia. As they see more and more countries unlocking and getting on with it this will snowball. I think Australia have really fucked up their exit strategy.

Australia has been royally fucked over by NSW and the PM.

NSW has done this by going in slow in a half-baked lockdown that let it into Victoria. Gladys will do anything rather than do what works: what was done in Victoria, and now whines about not having enough vaccs.

The PM is blameworthy by being lackadaisical with the vaccine rollout and consistently undermining Victoria because it's Labor. There's a degree of complacency because states and territories can close borders, so the PM was not put under pressure

I think Australia could well be in trouble, and it's down to the LNP playing politics instead of health.

There have been 6 deaths linked to AZ in Australia from around 6 million doses given.

For a lot of Australia they don’t feel like they have a risk of getting covid, so why risk the AZ vaccine.

Until the situation gets a whole lot worse in Australia then people will not want to get AZ.

Yup it’s the playing politics that will fuck NSW as it’s both local, state and federal elections coming up.
Libs have already lost WA & QLD and know it so have been attacking Labour in VIC and praising NSW to the sky.
NSW has great contact tracing (left over infrastructure from HIV in the 80’s/90’s) when the numbers are lower but 150 odd cases a day everyday is showing the strain.

Vic looks to have got there our break under control and have thousands coming up to day 13 tests to clear them to get out of ISO.

^Until the situation gets a whole lot worse in Australia then people will not want to get AZ*

This. While there's been renewed interest in getting vaccinated, it's not as it needs to be.

[quote mumwon]**@Warhertisuff* & @StartupRepair* Aboriginal Australians may well have lower immunity anyway because of their ethnicity its an unknown - do they have higher levels of diabetes by any chance?
2 of my adult children are in their young 30's &both had AZ jab before the panic set in - they were & are fine.
There are a very very few unlucky people who had this autoimmune reaction - & I do wonder if they had had covid whether they would have had a bad outcome (cytokine storm?) to it. The main point is this now the hospitals & the person vaccinated know the symptoms you go to the hospital they check your platelet level & if their is a problem they treat it asap - its very rare - that should prevent this if it does occur. There were younger people (Medical staff & vulnerable) who took this before this issue became known. My Adult dc (also another slightly older daughter) where happy & glad to have it.[/quote]
Some aboriginal communities have endemic T.B (In some places it’s 13 times the rate of non aboriginal communities) which is a increased risk factor.
Poor access to healthcare, isolated communities, lack of Messaging in there own languages, high rates of diabetes and other risk factors.

I actually think the rate of vaccination has been higher in aboriginal communities than the rest of rural Australia as Aboriginal local health have done a fantastic job of working in their areas to limit disinformation and educate.

@echt

^Until the situation gets a whole lot worse in Australia then people will not want to get AZ*

This. While there's been renewed interest in getting vaccinated, it's not as it needs to be.

In my age group (30-39) there’s been a lack of access to vaccination prior to the last fortnight. Until the advice changed for the AZ it wasn’t accessible for the younger age groups, Pfizer wasn’t available for my age group either. It’s less lack of interest, more a huge lack of access.

@MoppaSprings I agree that the willingness to have AZ will only change if there is a severe worsening of the situation.

Just looked up Australian stats on worldometer which says there have been 32,915 cases and 918 deaths. If the stat quoted above is correct (6 deaths out of 6 million doses - I haven’t checked that it is) then as soon as people think they are likely to get covid, they will presumably want a vaccine (because the risk from the virus is massively higher than the risk of the vaccine assuming you need to choose between them).

I have family in Victoria and Western Australia and was interested that they all knew about AZ side effects but not the Pfizer or Moderna ones. If anyone is worried about the covid vaccines (not just AZ) I’d really recommend reading “Vaxxers” - book written by Sarah Gilbert (Oxford prof who led on development of AZ vaccine) and Cathy Green (Oxford doctor who led on manufacturing side). It is very reassuring in relation to all the vaccines on offer in UK.

But aren’t certain parts now looking at months of hard lockdown? How bad does it have to get?

That is very true Patrick. I think another of the problems with the roll out in OZ is not just the trashy of AZ but the fetishising of Pfizer too. It has become the must have vaccine.
In reality all vaccines have their different issues. The study out of Israel with regards reinfection is not great (100% pfzier) although that study could well be flawed apparently and they only did the 3 week gap thing.
the U.K. has had a more of a mix of vaccines and also longer gap doses ( could be significant?) so not directly comparable.