Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

I was saying to my DH last night, I wonder if this is it for Australia, this is how it will spread over here, or if we will get on top of it and go back to normal again. In one way I hope definitely we crush the cases and are back out there in August plus it encourages people to get vaccinated.
I’ve just seen so many countries that previously were doing so well absolutely overwhelmed by cases and I have to say, Israel is a worry given that they were held up as an absolute beacon of vaccine coverage.

The covid free states will keep their borders shut to NSW( and ACT by default) and VIC. No one wants to be responsible for it getting in.
I do feel that it’s going to get in to SA eventually. We some how dodged what’s happening in VIC and the cases from NT only affected 1 family. Our luck will fun out soon.

@Ozgirl75 we have had similar conversations in the last couple of weeks as we watch it spread. I find it concerning that so much focus is on the Fairfield area with little reporting of other sites. Many I have spoken to in my local area (by phone, email, messaging etc) are surprised that we have cases in next door suburbs that have a lot of crossover. It is there is you check the maps and lists but barely a mention in the news. I think it's making some ares a little more complacent.
@sashagabadon the official line is that the road map and releases will still be guided by medical and health advice. We are still watching and taking on board developments from other countries who re further ahead on this road.

The Prime Minister said the vaccination threshold would be determined by modelling — “a scientific number, not a political number” — of the highly transmissible Delta variant that plunged Perth and Sydney into lockdown this week.

Sorry not sure why that strike through happened.
Also to clarify the cases in suburbs I mentioned are not geographically close to the hotspots but are neighboring suburbs to our location- over an hour from those identified hotspots.

Melbourne in lockdown, not Perth.

@StartupRepair that was a copy paste from an article earlier in July when Perth was also in lockdown

What a knobend, though one from the Department of No Surprise:

www.theage.com.au/national/katie-hopkins-admits-to-breaking-hotel-quarantine-rules-in-sydney-20210717-p58al3.html

Well that didn't take long:o

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/18/far-right-commentator-katie-hopkins-to-be-dumped-by-channel-seven-after-sydney-hotel-quarantine-claims

We've contained Sydney numbers over the past week, as in the 3 day average of new cases has stayed in the same vicinity, rather than increasing exponentially. We are finally doing a proper lockdown, so hopefully new daily numbers will start to decrease in a few days

[quote echt]Well that didn't take long:o

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/18/far-right-commentator-katie-hopkins-to-be-dumped-by-channel-seven-after-sydney-hotel-quarantine-claims[/quote]
I thought they would take action quickly! 😅

It just gets better :o

www.theage.com.au/national/australian-government-cancels-katie-hopkins-visa-20210719-p58aug.html

Cue lots of anti-Australian bile from her when she lands back in the UK.

Israel is a worry given that they were held up as an absolute beacon of vaccine coverage.

Not really. Someone said on another thread that Israel only has 56% fully vaccinated. Far too low.

In America 99.5% of the deaths now are in the unvaccinated.

@echt

It just gets better :o

www.theage.com.au/national/australian-government-cancels-katie-hopkins-visa-20210719-p58aug.html

Cue lots of anti-Australian bile from her when she lands back in the UK.

Australian here. So sorry you have to take back this walking piece of soiled toilet paper but glad she's not polluting our country any longer.

Katie Hopkins made the mistake of thinking everywhere was as lax as England. She also probably believed people who claimed Australians don't want suppress and contain measues. She should've realised that they are a vocal minority. The majority do want the measures. Recent polling shows something like 77% support border closures (including state borders). People don't want to emulate the UK. Most places have more morals and sense.

@StartupRepair

I don't think the afr is a good source for how people and communities are feeling. They are pushing the pro business line. We are all witnessing how that is failing in Sydney. Just because business is sick of the pandemic doesn't mean that people are prepared to accept mass deaths.

This.

And it's not just about deaths. Long Covid disability is a thing to avoid.

It's not too late for Australia (NSW included) - if the right action is taken now.

NSW have locked down harder now closing non essential retail and only click and collect or delivery available.
Today's press conference addressed the previously stated vaccination levels in relation to delta, and potential to vaccinate teens and children. Attached screenshots from the Sydney morning herald today.

NSW should have done this a month ago.

I think the big question will be whether clusters have developed among essential service-providing organizations and the people who run them--the kind of lifeline services that simply can't be shut down no matter how strict the lockdown. If that happens, I don't think any amount of click-and-collect or beach-shaming is going to stop Delta multiplying and spreading.

On the other hand, Taiwan appears to be squashed the outbreak it had a while back, and Oz may be able to do the same thing.

This pandemic is very hard to predict.

@StartupRepair I agree. In our household we're now assessing daily wether we send our kids to daycare but given the tracing lag is 7-10days behind it's hard to know.

@Kokeshi123 I agree - if it gets into hospitals, aged care it’s much harder to prevent the spread but we can try. It’s good news that the cases seem to have stalled around the 100 per day number with the numbers in the community falling.
I went to the supermarket today and it was markedly quieter than last week.
My friend went to our local shop which has been selling coffee etc as well as food and they said it was significantly quieter without the tradies around too.

Modelling has been released this afternoon that NSW could be out of lockdown by September 4

New modelling reveals possible date for end to Sydney lockdown
www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/nsw-lockdown-needs-to-run-to-september-for-delta-cases-to-drop/100307698

Sob. South Australia into 7 day lockdown today

I was meant to be going on holiday at the end of a July. Think I’ll have to postpone (if Jetstar will do the right thing). It’s so fucking hard to plan anything at the moment.

I can’t decide if 4 Sep is horrifying or ok. It sounds like a long way away but it’s only about 5 or 6 weeks so it’s not too bad, it’s already been 3 and a half after all.
Equally it’s nearly a whole school term at home.

I think it's probably only a couple of weeks more than what I was expecting, it's pretty clear this can't be managed as easily as the original virus we had last year.

I'm over homeschooling though.

The very thought of five more weeks of that is enough to tip me over

Cases are still rising in NSW despite lockdown. Lockdown in most countries is a very middle-class thing - WFH if you've got an office job, but if you work in a food factory or supermarket it isn't an option.

What is clear is that even if you vaccinate everyone you'll still get a huge wave of infections. Vaccines reduce the death rate by ~95%, but the psychology will have to change.

A lot of Australians think that they'll vaccinate up to a certain %, then achieve Herd Immunity and open up. Pre-Delta that was maybe possible. Now it isn't.

Two case studies in what happens in highly vaccinated populations with Delta:

1. Gibraltar - 116% double jabbed (x-border workers included too), eligible if over 16. Currently they have higher cases/pop than the UK

2. HMS Queen Elizabeth (Navy ship) - 100% double jabbed. When recently tested 100/1600 crew tested positive. All minor cases thanks to the vaccination.