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Covid

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Did it seem a bit odd that the tone of today's announcement was so sombre?

595 replies

secretintrovert · 05/07/2021 21:52

Bojo should have been doing his victory dance for freedom day! Instead the three of them looked as miserable as sin. There's trouble afoot methinks. This will be very very temporary

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 06/07/2021 23:16

As a query, what evidence is there that vaccination prevents long covid?

There are already questions over long covid. Ben Goldacre was saying there seems this weird disconnect between self reported cases and what GPs are saying about long covid which couldn't be reasonably explained.

www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-06-30-long-covid-cases-under-reported-nhs-gp-records-0

Lead researcher Dr Ben Goldacre from the University of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, said: ‘We were very surprised to see almost a hundred-fold difference in prevalence between population survey estimates and formally recorded diagnoses for the same condition. Good data on Long COVID will be crucial for research into the prevalence of Long COVID, its causes and consequences, and to plan services effectively.

At this point we really don't know how many cases there are, the severity of LC. Whether it is directly related to covid. Whether vaccines prevent covid. Whether covid vaccines improve LC. Whether LC resolves itself after a couple of months.

As it goes, I am personally quite interested in the subject because of my own health over the last 18 months.

At this point though making sweeping statements about LC is conjecture rather than based on actual evidence of anything. I know its kind of the nature of the beast, but the fact that we have this huge discrepancy between self reporting and GPs it raises questions about both diagnosis and severity of those self reporting.

I am hestitant to get too worked up about it too for this reason. A hundred fold discrepancy can not be explained purely by GPs under diagnosing.

Tealightsandd · 06/07/2021 23:34

As a query, what evidence is there that vaccination prevents long covid?

It's all a bit uncertain at this point. I suspect it doesn't, because many cases occur after just mild initial infection.

The way that vaccination stops Long Covid is the same as with preventing any Covid infection. Mass protection through herd immunity of 80-90% of the population vaccinated. If that point was reached, there would be only limited opportunity for the virus to spread (or mutate).

I'm with Biden on temporary vaccine patent waiver. It's the best and quickest way to get the rest of the world vaccinated. It's a tough task though. He's got a fight on his hands. The drugs companies don't want to do it, even although it would be temporary.

Sorry you've got concerns about your own health. Do you think you might have some form of Long Covid? I hope whatever it is you make a full recovery. If you think it might be Long Covid, I hope you can access a specialist clinic. I know they're not all fully up and running yet.

It's definitely going to involve a lot of under reporting. Something that's already an issue, well before Covid, is how women in particular too often have their symptoms dismissed as health anxiety or depression. Only getting a proper diagnosis after many months or years battling to get taken seriously.

I suspect the only reason why Long Covid has been recognised at all so early on, is because it's affected quite a lot of healthcare workers. Last year a group of doctor sufferers wrote to the BMJ detailing their experiences... including a fight to get their symptoms taken seriously by their colleagues.

Tealightsandd · 06/07/2021 23:43

A recent study suggested Long Covid is caused by changed and/or damaged blood cells.

We know it can lead to brain, heart, kidney, and lung damage, cause diabetes, hearing loss, heart attacks, and strokes.

What we don't know is how many people have suffered the organ damage. So far, many patients only had it diagnosed after going privately.

An article last week detailed the experiences of a young (30 something) woman who had life threatening clots in her lungs. Doctors had dismissed her symptoms as health anxiety and post Covid PTSD. A standard scan came back clear. The lung clots were only found when she sought out a specialist who used a different non routine scan.

How many patients will be unknowingly suffering organ or other potentially serious damage?

RedToothBrush · 06/07/2021 23:54

I've read her case.
It has similarities with my issues (but I'm no where near as serious). I also think my second vaccination has triggered a bit of a relapse / flair up though.

I've read mixed reports on how vaccines affect LC - some seem to have an improvement in symptoms and some it makes it worse.

I also know that vaccinations can trigger Guillain–Barré syndrome (not just covid vaccines) and there seems to be cases related to covid vaccines which has certain similarities to Long Covid.

For me there are too many unknowns and not enough recorded information to draw too many conclusions or to assume even that vaccines have a protective effect against LC.

Basically, the jury is very much out for me until there is more known about whats going on.

Tealightsandd · 06/07/2021 23:57

There's lots of research into it going on. Working on ways to diagnose and treat it, potential drug treatments etc. Hopefully things will improve for patients. It's going to add to NHS pressures though. Not least because a significant proportion of the patients will be NHS staff (some of whom will be too unwell to work, so even more staff shortages at a time of increased demand...)

The government really ought to bear all this in mind before making reckless decisions. It's an unnecessary risk, removing the mask mandate. We can only do so much, yes, but masks on public transport (and in other poorly ventilated enclosed spaces) is a relatively minor thing to do.. yet can make such a big difference.

The experts emphasise opening up, whilst 'living with' a disease that kills and disables, means sensible precautions such as masks.

Tealightsandd · 07/07/2021 00:20

I'm really sorry you've been experiencing issues.

Obviously every case is different and many people do seem to get better, with time and rest to recuperate. It's definitely worth getting a referral to a specialist clinic though, if you haven't already.

You're right the reports been mixed. Some people have found vaccines helped their Long Covid symptoms, others have felt it's the opposite. Perhaps it depends on the vaccine type? Or the individual patient?

But yes agree. It's definitely an unknown at this stage.

Vaccines would definitely protect indirectly against Long Covid - but that's if and when the majority of the population (80-90%) is vaccinated. As the there would be only limited chance of transmission.

I hope things improve for you, whatever the cause.

unwuthering · 07/07/2021 02:49

I assure you I will be fine if I get THE DELTA

I actually laughed out loud reading that. You imagine, you assume, but you do not actually know. Nor does anyone really know how their body will respond to the Delta plus variant, or the Lambda, or the ones that are currently being brewed up in the UK now and in the very new future.

UsedUpUsername · 07/07/2021 03:05

@unwuthering

I assure you I will be fine if I get THE DELTA

I actually laughed out loud reading that. You imagine, you assume, but you do not actually know. Nor does anyone really know how their body will respond to the Delta plus variant, or the Lambda, or the ones that are currently being brewed up in the UK now and in the very new future.

We actually have good stats on who is susceptible to COVID. The variants do not seem to strike a younger or healthier cohort in any significant way.

So yeah she’ll be fine

unwuthering · 07/07/2021 03:30

The variants do not seem to strike a younger or healthier cohort in any significant way.

Could have fooled me.

So yeah she’ll be fine

The complacent denial on here is mindblowing.

hamstersarse · 07/07/2021 07:34

@unwuthering

I assure you I will be fine if I get THE DELTA

I actually laughed out loud reading that. You imagine, you assume, but you do not actually know. Nor does anyone really know how their body will respond to the Delta plus variant, or the Lambda, or the ones that are currently being brewed up in the UK now and in the very new future.

Equally I have a little laugh at your hysterical fear.

I realise people have been scared out of their minds, but it really isn’t rational. I might get ill, you are right, but the risk of that actually happening is so minute, I’m not going to live in some hysterical state about it. I’m healthy, that I know for sure.
I’m at more risk from every day things I’m doing without thinking about it. I genuinely might die today, I understand that, I live that, deeply know that, have done for years. But will the thought of being knocked off my bike stop me going on my bike? No.

I might die today! I’m genuinely ok with that.

unwuthering · 07/07/2021 07:36

Hysterical fear... You do assume a lot of things.

But if being in denial suits you, carry on. You have plenty of company.

Attheendofthedaywhenallsaid · 07/07/2021 07:41

@Tealightsandd why would you even think about these things? or post them? there have always been people that will un luckily suffer long term effects from random viruses, take the Herpes Simplex Virus, millions and millions of people catch it, no symptoms, some catch it mild symptoms, some catch it and end up in ITU. Im sure there are people that have caught Herpes and it has caused X Y and Z and we will never know.

Cannot live in fear.

Roonerspismed · 07/07/2021 07:45

I actually worry far more about getting knocked off my bike hamster

I still barely know anyone who has covid let alone been seriously affected by it

I know several people who have had serious cycling accidents! I also still cycle but it’s always at the back of my mind

hamstersarse · 07/07/2021 08:13

@Roonerspismed

Bike deaths have gone up by 40% in the past year

By rights we should all scrap our death machines

hamstersarse · 07/07/2021 08:14

@unwuthering

Hysterical fear... You do assume a lot of things.

But if being in denial suits you, carry on. You have plenty of company.

I think I’m in the opposite of denial.

I literally said I might die today. I realise that I’m not only talking about a covid death so it doesn’t compute, but denial is not where I am

RedToothBrush · 07/07/2021 08:15

[quote Attheendofthedaywhenallsaid]@Tealightsandd why would you even think about these things? or post them? there have always been people that will un luckily suffer long term effects from random viruses, take the Herpes Simplex Virus, millions and millions of people catch it, no symptoms, some catch it mild symptoms, some catch it and end up in ITU. Im sure there are people that have caught Herpes and it has caused X Y and Z and we will never know.

Cannot live in fear.[/quote]
This pretty much.

The government cannot wrap everyone up in cotton wool and protect them from an airborne virus indefinitely.

Those most at risk of LC have been offered vaccination.

Those who are younger or at school may still be vulnerable but I have to say, to an extent its just life - and the government has no choice but to prioritise higher risk groups and acknowledge risk from other health conditions.

Very few people will die in their beds of old age, otherwise fit and healthy.

I genuinely think there are limitations to what the state can do.

Its a lottery as to what we are at higher risk from - some of it genetics and some of it socio-economic.

Given the nature of how more socially deprived communities have more under lying health issues directly related to poverty, I'd argue that restrictions are compounding health vulnerabilities of this group anyway and they now, largely have protections from the vaccine. Indeed we know the link between health risks and socio-economic issues and that this relates not just to covid but other conditions. We cannot separate the two things out. They are long term chronic issues that cannot be resolved overnight in the midst of a pandemic.

They are the result of decades of unresolved social issues by multiple governments and local authorities under different parties.

Long term this is where government intervention can improve things, but not in a crisis situation where efforts, resources and money are focused on maintaining restrictions.

Far from being unsympathetic to these issues, im very much of the mindset that they need addressing.

I think i see the only routes to resolution involving seeing the big picture and the many facets of it though. That does mean stopping this thing of only seeing covid and dealing with what has become unrealistic public expectations / disproportionate anxiety resulting from an inability to process and contextualise risk and balance with other competing issues.

This isnt easy. We have conditioned ourselves and been conditioned by government. A certain section of the population are always resistant to change and the change back to normality will be harder for some than others.

Our lifestyles have all been affected in one way or another. And some of these habits aren't good ones.

When i see posting with emotive language and the blinkers on, it does set off certain alarm bells and where someone is at with things.

Theres definitely posters who are struggling with context, risk assessment and don't understand evidence based medicine principles atm. Nor do they fully understand human behaviour in a liberal society and the limitations this places on governing in a crisis situation.

To put it another way, we are running out of options and running out of time and anything we do at this point is a gamble based on probability as we cannot see the future. Undoubtedly we will continue to make mistakes as a result and those with hindsight will remind everyone of those mistakes in due course.

At some point we will have to make a leap of faith whatever we do. Thats the trouble.

DameFanny · 07/07/2021 08:24

If you're not in denial @hamstersarse, why do you keep repeating lies about asymptomatic spread not being a thing?

UsedUpUsername · 07/07/2021 08:48

@unwuthering

The variants do not seem to strike a younger or healthier cohort in any significant way.

Could have fooled me.

So yeah she’ll be fine

The complacent denial on here is mindblowing.

I guess you’re not following the science then, because you are getting fooled
Chillychangchoo · 07/07/2021 08:55

@hamstersarse

You’re not the one in denial. I’ll join you. I’m 99.9 percent certain I’ll also survive THE DELTA 🙌.

unwuthering · 07/07/2021 08:55

I guess you’re not following the science then

Oh, bless you. How sweet!

Are you taking note of what has happened and is happening in other countries with these new variants, and younger people? No? Rhetorical question - clearly you are not.

RedToothBrush · 07/07/2021 09:21

Behavioral science is science.

claralara42 · 07/07/2021 09:52

@RedToothBrush

Behavioral science is science.
Ish. Sciene-ish. It's like calling sociology a science. We're talking the softest of the soft sciences.
theemperorhasnoclothes · 07/07/2021 10:20

I see a really clear difference in how the state is approaching covid (in certain areas, notably not the House of Commons where they're all socially distanced and wearing masks), and other risks.

So for road safety we have rules we all have to abide by it's not left to personal responsibility how fast you drive, whether you wear a seatbelt or whether you drink drive or even talk on your mobile. We could do away with all those restrictions and make it personal responsbility too - that would be insane, but we could do it.

Fire safety - we have lots of procedures and requirements.

But covid - particularly in schools - we're not even doing the basics which would be good ventilation. In NYC you can see the ventilation of your child's classroom and it's graded red to green (no continuous occupancy allowed of red and amber classrooms). This is an approach much closer to assessment of other risks in society. Why not here? I doubt it would cost huge amounts of money but the evidence is that it would make a huge difference in terms of infection levels in kids and yet they are doing LITERALLY NOTHING about ventilation in schools. It's like they want kids to be in cramped, unventilated spaces so they all catch it as soon as possible.

Honestly, I think in some ways the approach to covid worries me more in terms of what it means as a society more widely. What's next?

Will it now no longer be the employer's responsibility to ensure everyone wears a hard hat on a building site - will that now be 'personal responsibility' too?

Because behaviours around covid affect other people just as much and arguably more (and larger numbers of people) than driving how you want / wearing a hard hat / fire safety.

ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia · 07/07/2021 10:22

I hope the mathematical worst case modelling is incorrect but suspect there may indeed be real concerns as the government has thrown in the towel after being found out to be anything but on the (hand)job in recent months. Having spent billions of our tax payers monies enriching themselves and mates with doggy deals including unfit for purpose PPE using deliberately off audit personal emails when most required to save the lives of medics who died of Covid trying to save others in the initial months. The corruption has lead to a test track and trace system that is run by mates and relatives of the political ruling class elites and is now the de facto you must self isolate “lockdown” system. Only small issue being the fact that there is no mandatory obligation to own a new smartphone compatible with the App that does not work anyway. Indeed although many of us have multiple latest and greatest mobile smart devices, the elderly and by definition most vulnerable being pre mobile tech age may not even own or use any mobile smartphone device or if they do, only use for telephone and video calls.

We have allowed not only Indian but also Peru Lambda variants to mix with our homegrown Johnson/Cornwall variant to ensure we request our brilliant scientists to come up with new vaccines to beat the mutations versus vaccination race. This popularist government is only hanging on because of no effective political opposition as frankly who wants to be in charge of this once in a lifetime mess and won votes because of Brexit, vaccines and furlough which will be a medical war debt paid back over generations and decades.

Perhaps even that clown Johnson will finally say in a later podium press conference:

“Folks we got it wrong. The scientists are telling us that we need to stay at home again to protect our NHS and the most medically vulnerable. However we can’t afford to let the economy collapse so get a test and get back to work if you can but wear a mask keep testing to seek treatment if necessary. Sorry folks it’s not a u turn but there is no other choice as new variants are impacting all including children our future generations who we need to keep this great nation great. Bah, bah, bah a few choice words of latin perhaps even res ipsa loquitur or "the thing speaks for itself"!”

theemperorhasnoclothes · 07/07/2021 10:24

And cycling - really the main risk if you decide to cycle is to yourself. So it is something where personal responsibility works better because if you don't wear a helmet, really it's only you that it will affect.
And if you don't want to take the risks of cycling you don't have to cycle. It's really easy to control your own risk.

Not so with covid. People have to eat, work, go to the doctor.

I bet doctors surgeries won't be doing away with masks.