Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@MarshaBradyo Re the two data threads (I know you were joking) I've wondered for a while if we need another data thread for other relevant data, not just scientific data - the obvious being economic data.

I really, really hope the governments of all four nations are not making decisions based purely on "the science" or only looking at data relating to cases, deaths etc. I think it is easy to dismiss people when they raise concerns about the economy as being right wing, uncaring Tories who want to privatise the NHS. But I personally find the potential economic fallout of all of this terrifying - that isn't to say I don't think we should have had a lock down or shouldn't have had any restrictions. But I wonder if we'd want "restrictions to carry on a little longer" or say "just a few more weeks" if, along with cases and deaths, the government published every day the number of jobs lost, the amount of unpaid commercial rent which all our pensions are invested in, the mounting national debt crisis and how long our children will be paying that off, realistic tax consequences etc. And every restriction has an effect - it feels like it is really a small thing for people to carry on wearing masks or socially distance but for lots of business that just won't work - either because many people won't want to use their services in that environment or because they just can't comply based on the configuration of their premises etc. But equally lots of people will be nervous of ditching all precautions and may curtail their economic activity so it really is hard to call.

The regular long time posters on here have been fabulous at helping the rest of us understand the science and case data - and have actually never suggested that this is the only relevant information. I just think people are forgetting that cases and science is not all its about.

@boys3

get your point about starting from a low point BUT in terms of hospitalisations, this week hasn’t got off to a great start, would need something some regression to not hit 25% increase this week. 1636 to 1888, so 15% so far.

I’m just praying we hit some sort of herd immunity mid August and we hit a peak.

I’m hoping someone can explain this, which apologies is probably quite simple…

Why were they saying we’d be moving deaths/cases down the road, not stopping them, if we delay the 19th? If more people are vaccinated/more time since 2nd vax, then why wouldn’t a few more weeks stop those cases/deaths (rather than delay them)?

Also, why would winter be worse (to delay opening to) if the vacs are working? (I know they aren’t 100%). More people would be vaccinated?

@BanditoShipman

I’m hoping someone can explain this, which apologies is probably quite simple…

Why were they saying we’d be moving deaths/cases down the road, not stopping them, if we delay the 19th? If more people are vaccinated/more time since 2nd vax, then why wouldn’t a few more weeks stop those cases/deaths (rather than delay them)?

Also, why would winter be worse (to delay opening to) if the vacs are working? (I know they aren’t 100%). More people would be vaccinated?

1. they aren’t exactly vaccinating that many people anymore. Which is pathetic.

2. they want people to get used to 200/300 deaths/day so that 500-1000 in winter doesn’t sound so bad.

Those getting vaccinated at the moment aren’t the ones that are dying. They might catch the virus but healthy 20yo shouldn’t be suddenly dying.
(This my opinion not sure whether it’s really what is happening)

If more people are vaccinated/more time since 2nd vax, then why wouldn’t a few more weeks stop those cases/deaths (rather than delay them)?

Because anyone at significant risk of covid is already vaccinated, and vaccine breakthrough could happen whenever the cases are - may even be worse the longer time since vaccination. For lots of reasons (more active travel, more vitamin D, more fresh air etc.) people are healthier in the summer in the UK - that's why outside of heat waves many fewer people die, so those vaccine breakthrough cases are likely to be worse if got in the winter.

(seasonality of the virus may impact this of course, as influenza is more likely to spread in winter in the UK)

Restrictions limit health (mostly in those who shield of course) but anyone who only exercises from work and incidental activity or through team sports etc. have reduced their activity and therefore their health. These are often reversible (especially in younger people, less so in the elderly or shielders) but the longer the restrictions the more the health loss, so the higher risk they become to covid.

@sirfredfredgeorge

If more people are vaccinated/more time since 2nd vax, then why wouldn’t a few more weeks stop those cases/deaths (rather than delay them)?

Because anyone at significant risk of covid is already vaccinated, and vaccine breakthrough could happen whenever the cases are - may even be worse the longer time since vaccination. For lots of reasons (more active travel, more vitamin D, more fresh air etc.) people are healthier in the summer in the UK - that's why outside of heat waves many fewer people die, so those vaccine breakthrough cases are likely to be worse if got in the winter.

(seasonality of the virus may impact this of course, as influenza is more likely to spread in winter in the UK)

Restrictions limit health (mostly in those who shield of course) but anyone who only exercises from work and incidental activity or through team sports etc. have reduced their activity and therefore their health. These are often reversible (especially in younger people, less so in the elderly or shielders) but the longer the restrictions the more the health loss, so the higher risk they become to covid.

First off, everyone at risk of harm from covid is not already vaccinated.

The small % of the vulnerable who have not, for whatever reason, managed to get the vaccinations yet are exactly the people who might end up still in hospital etc. An increasingly small percentage but still important as will be reflected in the figures. Worth mentioning as this is the data thread.

There have only been 5 days when combined vaccinations have been lower than for yesterday:
21st June (reporting error)
5th April (Easter Monday)
4th April (Easter Sunday)
7th March (184000)
21st Feb (151000)
11th Jan (165000). Day 1 of recording.

@PatrickTheFox
Could you give examples? I really can't think of any, but I am not average joe (don't go to pubs, don't like ppl in general and en masse,...), so I feel I'm missing something that normal ppl do regularly. (whatever normal is :) )

And every restriction has an effect - it feels like it is really a small thing for people to carry on wearing masks or socially distance but for lots of business that just won't work - either because many people won't want to use their services in that environment or because they just can't comply based on the configuration of their premises etc.

The small % of the vulnerable who have not, for whatever reason, managed to get the vaccinations yet are exactly the people who might end up still in hospital etc

This is true, but of course there also numbers of people at particularly higher risk of death due to the restrictions, whilst in previous times the number at higher risk of covid absolutely swamp these, the trade off is no longer so clear cut.

And also of course the loss in QALYs that even larger numbers have through the restrictions limiting their health.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]**@PatrickTheFox
Could you give examples? I really can't think of any, but I am not average joe (don't go to pubs, don't like ppl in general and en masse,...), so I feel I'm missing something that normal ppl do regularly. (whatever normal is :) )

And every restriction has an effect - it feels like it is really a small thing for people to carry on wearing masks or socially distance but for lots of business that just won't work - either because many people won't want to use their services in that environment or because they just can't comply based on the configuration of their premises etc.[/quote]
Not aimed at me but I can give an example of the sort of thing @PatrickTheFox might mean.

I'm a big fan of a spa day (not for everyone I know but I love them!) I've had a champneys voucher since Christmas (I'll put towards a treatment whilst there) but I won't book a spa day whilst you have to wear a mask whilst moving around the facility because it would really take the edge off the enjoyment for me (and obviously it's an expensive treat bf I want to get the most out of it). I think there will be a lot of people who feel similarly about optional/treat type activities.

I also don't shop for the fun of it at the moment, I'm in and out!

@TheSunIsStillShining Sorry if I implied some people are "normal" and others aren't!

What I meant was - For example, I'm in professional services and we haven't been to the office since March last year. If they keep social distancing we can't all go back as we won't all fit in the office and our lifts won't cope. The configuration of our premises won't allow us to keep up social distancing. Having said that, if work does ditch social distancing, presumably some staff will choose not to go back because they have health concerns. In terms of the local economy around my office (dry cleaners, sandwich shops, theatres etc), they won't recover until the office workers go back. Similarly, retailers have been really badly affected - obviously there have been problems on the high street and competition from online offerings which predate the pandemic but on the quarter day last month (when commercial rent is traditionally paid), landlords collected only 18% of their rents. I'm not sure people realise how amazing (in a disastrous way) that figure is. What all retailers need is for footfall to massively increase - they can't do that if they have to limit numbers of customers in shops. But again, will shoppers feel comfortable returning? It will be a similar situation in hospitality and leisure - some people won't mind going to theatre in a mask and presumably paying more because it can't be full capacity while others will hate that.

Does that make sense? Sorry if I haven't explained it properly.

@Sunshinegirl82 - yes, that is exactly what I mean. The spas of this country need you!

@PatrickTheFox
you didn't imply anything, I said "normal" :D

• @Sunshinegirl82

Thanks for the explanation. The inner city economy was kinda in my head, but tbh never thought of the spa or shopping and enjoyment in the same sentence.

My -unresolved- problem with this argument is...
Ok, spa's need you. But if we keep spas afloat we jeopardize the overall progress we have made (that cost us a lot, in money, in emotion,...)
@Sunshinegirl82
But if the question becomes "is spa day more important than children's uninterrupted education/more generic or general industries' survival, would you still think that keeping your fav spa afloat is a top priority?

TheSunIsStillShining If you could add restrictions so actually those things actually stopped, with pubs open etc., R is well above 1, we need honesty from those people saying "it's worth keeping cases low", what they are actually asking for is more restrictions, and they need to justify them in terms of other harms (of all sorts)

If they're just pretending that the existing restrictions are meaningful then they're being utterly dishonest and not following the case data, cases are rising with the current restrictions. If you believe that's wrong, call for the closure of pubs now, call for the end of indoor dining, don't say "oh we need to keep masks for another few months" - it won't stop the cases.

@TheSunIsStillShining I don’t think there’s an easy answer. Most people don’t think schools should close or education be interrupted so people can go to the spa. But let’s not pretend that (1) we can afford to keep spas afloat for much longer; (2) spa owners / workers will have had to close or make people redundant thereby increasing number of unemployed which will decrease tax collected at the same time as increasing cost to state of benefits etc; (3) spas presumably support other businesses (don’t know much about spa business but they’ll buy products from somewhere, get gowns and towels laundered etc); (4) unemployed spa workers have children and they could be badly affected by decline in household income; (5) spa has probably not paid rent impacting the landlord’s finances etc etc. In fact the more I think about it the more I think we all need a spa day soon - surely Rishi will stand up soon at a press conference and tell us it’s our civic duty.

@PatrickTheFox shit, that is a hugely scary figure. 18% of landlords paid on quarter day. Do you have link to that please?

Thank you for all the answers, makes sense to me now.

@TheSunIsStillShining we will curtail our economic activity. So when/if everything goes back to normal on 19th we will be a lot less likely to go out for a meal (if we do, we will sit outside). We will also be less likely to go shopping as ‘something to do’ rather than just when we need to. We will also not be going to crowded pubs/days out, again unless outside.
Currently we are going for meals out as feel fairly safe with table service/masks and less customers.

@BanditoShipman

Thank you for all the answers, makes sense to me now.

@TheSunIsStillShining we will curtail our economic activity. So when/if everything goes back to normal on 19th we will be a lot less likely to go out for a meal (if we do, we will sit outside). We will also be less likely to go shopping as ‘something to do’ rather than just when we need to. We will also not be going to crowded pubs/days out, again unless outside.
Currently we are going for meals out as feel fairly safe with table service/masks and less customers.

Yes, that sounds like us.

We, as a family, are more economically active at the moment than we will be after the 19th, because once the restrictions are removed and the risks rise from the unavoidable social contact, our personal risk asessments will suggest that we stay at home unless for reasons of necessity.

Whereas at the moment, the measures in place to control risk for all mean that our personal risk assessments favour going out and about much more.

www.economicsobservatory.com/

has some interesting insights.

So whilst I get what PatrickTheFox is saying, and as a business owner would concur with some of the points made, I'd also argue that there are wider factors than Covid, and that frankly the climate crisis has far bigger economic ramifications. At a more basic level the demise of the traditional high street was well underway before Covid, and there is a risk that Covid will be an excuse for many businesses who simply fail to adapt to a changing world,. "we need to get it back to how it was before" is a recipe for failure; although perhaps an understandable default position for sectors where innovation and creativity are largely alien concepts. But that's just an opinion :); wider data perspectives I'd hope would always be welcome.

@flowerycurtain having trouble trying to do it on my phone. It is in the stats published by Estates Gazette and if you google “25 June 2021 quarter day rent paid” there is a lot of comment on it by the big landlord groups and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. When I log in tomorrow morning I’ll try and post a link.

@BanditoShipman that’s my point - people will make different but perfectly sensible decisions depending on their circumstances.

Thank you all for your thoughts.
@sirfredfredgeorge You should know by now, that if anyone - I do not think that this is more than a charade... :(

And I think that is where my problem stems from. we are doing for show elements and yet still wrecking both economy and health.
Wreck economy, but have eg. 1500 deaths as a result is more palatable than this.
Or at least if 150k people died the economy should have fared much better.

And i did say my unresolved argument.
But one thing I am really unhappy about is the ditching of masks. It's relatively cheap and doesn't cause real harm generally in either economy or health.
The fact that they phrased it saying to companies to not forget to look up the equalities act is more like saying: you can choose to make ppl wear mask, but it will be unlawful.

You should know by now, that if anyone - I do not think that this is more than a charade...

Sorry Sun, I really wasn't intending you to think that was about you, it was actually more about some tweets I saw going by about why restrictions shouldn't be relaxed because it was worth keeping R below 1.

The mask thing is odd, I don't actually think the evidence is there that they are particularly effective, they're certainly irrelevant in pubs etc. and they do bring disproportionate ire from some, so the removal is symbolic for those. But equally because with masks covid is spreading exponentially, then they're almost certainly symbolic for those who want to wear them too.

As you know, it's not about the economy for me, (only 18% of landlords getting paid - good! Equity are exactly the people who should be paying for all of this) it's about health, obviously I'm biased by the harm the restrictions caused me, just as many people on the thread are biased by their own risks from covid.

Omg I've never had a spa day I'd have one with a mask I wouldn't care. I miss reflexology I hope that returns. Mask or no I don't care