Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Is there any news on the status of people being admitted now? Length of admission, severity of illness etc.

I know that previously covid patients tended to be admitted for a significant period of time which of course adds to the pressure. I was wondering if the influence of vaccines mean that the average length of an admittance had decreased.

@LunarSea Warwickshire here too - one local primary is fully closed after an outbreak, the majority of local primaries and secondaries have multiple bubbles isolating, several nurseries also closed. I have one dc isolating after someone at their dance school had a positive LFT (isolation was recommended while we wait for the PCR result). I know it's anecdotal but it definitely feels as though everyone I speak to locally knows someone who either has it or is isolating. It hasn't felt like this at any other point in the pandemic- I guess we've been lucky.

@Stilltalkstotrees

And this. Younger people are getting sick enough to be admitted to hospital - yes, fewer will die, but they are at risk of longer term health problems and are taking up NHS resources. I don't know the answer - just seems very strange to me to be lifting almost all restrictions while we're seeing these figures rise so sharply.

You’re misinterpreting that graph StillTalksToTrees. It’s an illustration of how vaccination in older age groups has slashed their hospitalisation rate, leaving the younger, largely unvaccinated population to dominate the intake despite their much lower intrinsic risk.

Hospitalisation numbers are rising, but not sharply, and as vaccination takes effect in ever younger age groups we’ll see the pattern reverse again until the distribution in October looks like February, but with much lower numbers.

interesting put like this

Depressing I think, we should have been more prepared for the second wave.

Weekly 25% increases will mean roughly 10,000 patients in hospital by the end of August more depressing.

Depressing I think, we should have been more prepared for the second wave.

The Kent variant changed things dramatically. R was under 1 for most of Autumn with schools open

BoJo really pushing vaccine effectiveness.

Thank you but no - I'm not misinterpreting the second graph; I understand it very well. However, I was using it alongside my previously posted graph, which does show that admissions are rising steeply. I can see how you might have thought my interpretation was off - I'm not the best at communicating.

Just started listening

I do think some perspective needs to be maintained.

These are England figures

Hospital admission indeed the seven day average is up 47%. The low point was 74 on 17th May, so almost a four fold increase

Number in Hospital seven day average here is up 24%. Low point of 753 on 31st May, so at 1626 just past a doubling.

Deaths reporting lag in terms of date of occurrence so let’s go back a few days to 30 June when the 7 day average was 14.3, 28% higher than a week earlier. The low point was 4.3 on the 19th May, so a three fold increase. 3.3 times higher to be precise.

cases. 7 day average 20,259 using a 2 day lag. A 13 fold increase on the low of 1559 on 3rd May.

And in terms of previous peaks based on seven day average still

cases. Just under 55,000, just about three times higher

admissions 3812 , 13 times higher than current

in hospital 33594, 20 times higher than now

deaths 1168 , 81 times higher.

Whoever is on PM has just said his risk of death double jabbed as a 60 something is more than an unvaccinated 30 year old.

This must be the kind of data they're relying on to make these decisions.

But it's not supposed to be about deaths - it's about 'protecting the NHS'.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter.. ( forgive the spelling) has just said on R4 PM that he, as double vaccinated 60 something(?), is at greater risk of dying of Covid than an unvaccinated 30 year old.

I'm sure there must be some interesting stats round that.

Ah warrior can type faster

Whoever is on PM has just said his risk of death double jabbed as a 60 something is more than an unvaccinated 30 year old

It might be interesting that those numbers were chosen, it implies the vaccine is only around 90% effective doesn't it?

e.g. recent CDC data www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

Has 60 year old only around 10times more at risk than a 30 year old, which means to bring that risk to equivalence is only 90% effective.

However I wonder if it was actually chosen due to the number of 60 year olds, rather than being the actual cross over point? That's probably my thought as vaccine efficacy being that much lower would be news I think.

Good to hear Whitty and Vallance again on reasoning

Re Summer

@sirfredfredgeorge

Whoever is on PM has just said his risk of death double jabbed as a 60 something is more than an unvaccinated 30 year old

It might be interesting that those numbers were chosen, it implies the vaccine is only around 90% effective doesn't it?

e.g. recent CDC data www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

Has 60 year old only around 10times more at risk than a 30 year old, which means to bring that risk to equivalence is only 90% effective.

However I wonder if it was actually chosen due to the number of 60 year olds, rather than being the actual cross over point? That's probably my thought as vaccine efficacy being that much lower would be news I think.

I’m not sure whether that CDC data is what he was working on. Spiegelhalter has been consistently working on a rule of thumb of death rates doubling with every seven years of age, so thirty years difference would be a twenty time multiple, equivalent to a 95% vaccine effectiveness.

Having had a quick look at the CDC I think it’s probably similar because that 50-65 age range is really big so the 35x figure is probably a bit low for a sixty year old.

Spiegelhalter has been consistently working on a rule of thumb of death rates doubling with every seven years of age, so thirty years difference would be a twenty time multiple

Yeah but that rule of thumb has never been very good, it overstates the difference between 23 and 37 and understates the difference between 60 and 74, I'd hope they'd use something better!

@TheSunIsStillShining

but back to the numbers. Usually when things start to go sideways or in a good directions the lovely people here make informed (but biased) bets on how things will follow.

What are the outcomes that you think are possible given what we see of the trajectory now?

100000 cases a day by 19th July, emergency last minute lockdown in August, schools in the shitter.

The usual.

Maybe we need two versions of data thread

The gloom one and the reasonable ;

It’s very back of the envelope, but I think the message that vaccinated late middle aged people are probably at similar risk to unvaccinated young people is an relevant one to get out.

It really does feel like a big change on 19th

A long road since the start and definitely a new phase

My one thing I’d love to solve is vaccine hesitancy but I also know trying to convince anyone on here is counter productive.

Irl every I know has had it

@Stilltalkstotrees

Thank you but no - I'm not misinterpreting the second graph; I understand it very well. However, I was using it alongside my previously posted graph, which does show that admissions are rising steeply. I can see how you might have thought my interpretation was off - I'm not the best at communicating.

Sorry I missed your train of thought there trees - I tend to dip in and out.

My gut instinct is that the additional weeks vaccinating the younger population will just about tip the scales - we could always do with a couple more weeks though.

Thanks for explaining GERTI. It was a "woah, really" moment hearing that stat on the radio but one of those stats that really needs thinking about. If the 30 something's unvaccinated risk is low it is not something to be concerned about particularly.

I don't know the uk radio stations in general, so I kind of got stuck as in how "on the PM", as in Prime Minister is supposed to be interpreted. :)