Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I expect hospitalisations and then deaths to do what cases did: look like a plateau fit quite a while, then start rising, then start doubling then the doubling speeds up.

Why when I read this do I have a mental image of someone bouncing up and down and furiously rubbing their thighs......?

[quote ScatteredMama82]@PrincessNutNuts why do you think that deaths will climb too? They aren't so far, and every day more and more of us are vaccinated. I honestly can't see why you would think deaths and hospitalisations will increase in the same way. Yes, cases are rising dramatically but of those cases very few are seriously ill. That's the vaccine doing its job. There's no reason to think it won't continue to do so.[/quote]
Vaccines have changed the ratio of hospitalisations and deaths to cases dramatically.

This wave's going to look a bit different but the basic rule of more cases = more hospitalisations and more deaths will still hold true.

As cases spread and move upwards through the age groups as they've always done, more people will be made seriously ill.

In order to see hospital admission numbers like we've seen before the government just has to release restrictions and allow unprecedented numbers of cases.

While the pandemic remains "patchy" the overall numbers won't look quite so high for a while, but once Delta achieves full coverage I fully expect we'll be in the thousands of daily admissions again. I'm surprised hospitals aren't issuing black alerts now in some areas.

Hospital numbers have had time to show trending up through the age bands, and they really haven’t.

@Piggywaspushed

It''ll be interesting now to see the Tories put down the stalling in life expectancy in deprived areas to Covid ( ie''outside their control) when it had already stalled in the two years before the pandemic (austerity)...

appg-longevity.org/

A lot of work has already been going on to address the issue pre-covid.

I am not sure why you are making that point at me BWJ? Is it to exonerate the consecutive governments from blame in causing conditions that have allowed longevity to decline in deprived areas, thus placing those same areas in the crosshairs of Covid?

I do know of the APPG. I am not sure as of yet they have done a lot of work but the aforementioned report is part of it.

They have their work cut out since they want to add 5 years to LE by 2035 and will struggle with the years taken off! (unless they start from the lowest point...) They are relying, in part. on the projections that male LE is expected to catch up on female by 2035.

As cases spread and move upwards through the age groups as they've always done, more people will be made seriously ill.

Except they're moving DOWN through the age groups...

@PrincessNutNuts; it’s a very crude comparison but out of interest I looked at other countries with similar current case rates. Indonesia is also climbing a wave (so less interference in the numbers from longer term cases) and their death numbers are much, much higher than ours. Yesterday Indonesia had 20,467 new cases and 463 deaths compared to our 20,325/23. It’s absolutely not a like for like comparison but even taking into account other factors it’s clear that AZ and Pfizer are having an impact on the factors that drove us into dramatic changes of our behaviour.

I have reservations about the current strategy and share some of your concerns, but things have changed and won’t follow the pattern of previous waves. Based on current figures we could manage an infection rate four times higher than we’re seeing currently. This is strictly from the perspective of easing restrictions as I’m still personally concerned about longer term effects and am uneasy about removing some elements of restrictions but it’s undeniable that we’ve achieved more control of covid with the vaccines than we ever achieved even with harsh restrictions. Following that logic we can’t justify the continuing effect on society and the economy.

The UK is doing much more testing than other countries - hence the high ‘case’-rate. If our testing was more in line with, say, the US we would probably have around half of our current numbers
www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

PrincessNutNuts

The rate at which hospitalisations are rising has been decreasing recently - it has gone down from 30/40% (and that was a percentage of a relatively low number) to 10% in more recent days and was only 6% today. This is despite cases rocketing.

Your statement that as cases rise then hospitalisations and deaths will rise is of course true, but if we are talking very low numbers (which we are) then that has to be balanced against the disadvantages (of which there are many) of keeping restrictions in place.

I don't know why you think the death rate is going to shoot up, given that 85% of the population are vaccinated and 65% are double vaccinated, with hundreds of thousands more being done every day?

I'm surprised hospitals aren't issuing black alerts now in some areas

Just to address this, I may have missed it but I haven’t heard much about the current inpatient times for vaccinated patients. In previous waves hospital admissions were more likely to be lengthy, if the vaccinated require less support this could simply be that the turnaround of patients is much quicker.

Whilst I can’t wait for restrictions to lift I don’t think they’ll make that much difference case wise

Literally no one in real life is following the rules anyway

I don’t imagine clubs and theatres are going to make this huge jump people are worried about

Clubs just replace the large indoor house parties people are having

No one wears masks inside homes and most workplaces which is where more transmission occurs

.

@Tinysalmonswimminginastream

PrincessNutNuts

The rate at which hospitalisations are rising has been decreasing recently - it has gone down from 30/40% (and that was a percentage of a relatively low number) to 10% in more recent days and was only 6% today. This is despite cases rocketing.

Your statement that as cases rise then hospitalisations and deaths will rise is of course true, but if we are talking very low numbers (which we are) then that has to be balanced against the disadvantages (of which there are many) of keeping restrictions in place.

I don't know why you think the death rate is going to shoot up, given that 85% of the population are vaccinated and 65% are double vaccinated, with hundreds of thousands more being done every day?

You know how we're currently seeing hospitalisations based on daily detected cases from about ten days ago?

Well, ten days ago daily detected cases were under 10,000 a day. And mostly concentrated in the three youngest age groups.

In ten days time daily cases could well be about 50,000 a day. And be beginning to spread in older age groups.

That's going to have an impact on numbers of hospital admissions.

Does anyone understand how India has managed to get their figures down so well? If Delta is as transmissible as is being said, then surely in a country where many could not afford to lockdown/quarantine/isolate it would be almost impossible to suppress, with so few fully vaccinated? Does anyone know what is happening there?

@Arcadia

Does anyone understand how India has managed to get their figures down so well? If Delta is as transmissible as is being said, then surely in a country where many could not afford to lockdown/quarantine/isolate it would be almost impossible to suppress, with so few fully vaccinated? Does anyone know what is happening there?

I wouldn’t trust their reporting.

They’re testing not enough. 200k cases/1m people

@PrincessNutNuts

Currently 1 person in my local hospital with Covid (Addenbrokes). 0.37% of what we had during the January peak. There is some bandwidth.

This is just burning through the kids. It sucks for them, but ultimately it is expediting our way to a very high level of immunity.

I’ll start worrying when Addenbrookes reaches 80 patients. (1/3 of the Jan peak, like Bolton has seen). 79 to go.

@PrincessNutNuts why do you think you know better than Chris Whitty?

It’s baffling.

And another question - why do you (and the others) spend all day every day telling everyone how bad it’s going to be? I just don’t understand what you gain from it, except winding people up. Your MN posts won’t change government policy so why do you bother? What’s in it for you?

[quote ScatteredMama82]@PrincessNutNuts why do you think that deaths will climb too? They aren't so far, and every day more and more of us are vaccinated. I honestly can't see why you would think deaths and hospitalisations will increase in the same way. Yes, cases are rising dramatically but of those cases very few are seriously ill. That's the vaccine doing its job. There's no reason to think it won't continue to do so.[/quote]
They’ve climbed a bit I think, were around less than 10 a day and now around 20?

Apologies I didn’t refresh before posting and conversation has moved on

It's a blessed relief to bring it back to data tbh. Crack on!

Anyone see that the Labour party seem somehow to have figures that show 80% of school children (so years 7 and above ) aren't doing the bi weekly LFTs? Could be interesting if daily testing is a 'way out'.

hey’re testing not enough. 200k cases/1m people

But there's deaths are down too, if it was simply testing, deaths would not have changed. Are they hiding the deaths?

I don’t imagine clubs and theatres are going to make this huge jump people are worried about

I absolutely agree, that's why I don't understand the delay of the restrictions, there were simply not the restrictions that made the difference, open indoor pubs/restuarants and overnight stays away from home are enough to enable spread between different groups, extending it to clubs and theatres makes little additional difference.

A true massive superspreader event could infect a few more people directly, but I can't see how it really makes huge differences to the rate of infection.

Although hospitalisations and deaths are the really key metrics given cases are so easily reported and extracted some movement graphs for England showing latest rate per 100,000 (x axis) and the absolute change as compared to the position a week ago.

Graph for English regions to get things going.