Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Humans like humans like them. People who are pro-vaccination, inclined to follow the rules and test and isolate when they should are quite likely to work, live near and socialise with people with a similar approach.

We analyse data by age and geography. I think it's relevant to consider education and other demographics as well. People living in areas of multiple deprivation tend to be at higher risk of exposure through work and/or living conditions. They are also often at higher risk of being seriously ill or dying due to underlying health conditions. The triple whammy is that people from these areas are also more likely to be vaccine hesitant.

[quote EasterIssland]@Itsprobablynotcominghome ir doesn’t fully answer your question but there is some info here
mobile.twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1409593065426272257[/quote]
Thanks. Still, even at our slow pace, we should first dose everyone who wants it by the start of August easily. Then it’s just getting through the 2nd doses.

I want to bring my second forward to 8 weeks from 11, but where I’ve booked never has any slots.

Tempted to go along to a walk in this Saturday that is doing 2nd doses of Pfizer. It’ll be about 6 weeks since my first.

Stepping all the way back, what is striking to me is just how risky for single source transmission visiting friends and staying with friends are. No surprise, and consistent with previous studies, but it stresses that the some of our most "social" everyday interactions

This seems to be another case of recall and detection bias - if we're in a situation where we have 2 people both testing positive and both recall visiting another person in the same postcode, then it's extremely likely that the two people recalled it because they told each other they were a likely case and that's how the two infections were caught?

You may be right sir, but surely that study isn’t relying on reported meetings but genomic data?

You may be right sir, but surely that study isn’t relying on reported meetings but genomic data?

Yes, but they are more likely to pick up two linked cases if one person was a close contact of the other, recalled it and informed the other. And both would record.

So it's about the discovery of the two closely related cases that I think is the high chance that biases this?

You're perhaps also more likely to test with fewer or no symptoms if you know you've been in contact with someone who is positive.

I take your point @PatriciaHolm.

Perhaps they under-estimated the lead in time when it looks like plateau for ages?

The model shown here has us hitting about 1000 admissions a day tomorrow, when it will probably be in a few weeks.

The dates are premature, but the trajectory's not looking that far out to me.

We'll probably hit that 250 a day rolling average the model has on June 18th sometime in the next week, and then 1000 a day will only be 18-24 days after that.

I mean, that's just my opinion. we won't have to wait long to find out.

My feeling is that we'll end up with the same dynamics as seen in the Warwick projections, just with the dates moved along a little bit.

Morning. Long time lurker with a question.
Apparently, according to The Sun, from 19th July anyone who is double vaccinated will no longer have to self isolate if they've been in contact with a positive case.
This is based on results from a study that's been running since April.

However, I'm currently taking part in that study. I have to do a lateral flow test every day. If it's negative, I can go out for essential stuff only like work and shopping.

So my question is, has anyone seen any results from this study? I'm not sure how they can make this announcement if the study is still ongoing?
I can see why this measure is needed but I'd like to know the likelihood of someone testing positive even after both jabs.

The daily contact testing study haven't officially reported yet, but the expansion on 4th June for VoC contacts made it seem like it was going well. It's run directly by PHE, so presumably they are looking at rolling results. It's unclear why it would just be double jabbed initially - whether that's caution when it works for most people, or whether the findings are that it's a bad idea for non-vaccinated.

@JanFebAnyMonth

You may be right sir, but surely that study isn’t relying on reported meetings but genomic data?

They didn't seem to do full tracing to confirm links, it was estimation from the variant.

It was useful in ranking to some extent, though some business types being closed limits the value; universities were widely closed surely in this period for example. I also couldn't see how they removed additional links as confounding factors. They noted kids playing outside school but didn't cover the trickle-down that infections in secondary will cause some in primary, which will cause some in nursery. Without checking relationships to remove that as a confounder, it leaves a gap in tracking the transmission chain that could have been fairly easily confirmed as irrelevant or reducing risk. Being Alpha variant also doesn't necessarily help with schools, because 5-9 year olds look more likely to be infected with Delta according to stats, so we don't know yet if primary school risk is much higher with Delta or if there's some other factor.

Thanks MRex
I can't find it now but the original info I was given said they had found only 1 in 5 people went on to test positive after being in close contact with a positive case.
It didn't say anything about whether they were vaccinated or not.

@EchoElephant

Morning. Long time lurker with a question. Apparently, according to The Sun, from 19th July anyone who is double vaccinated will no longer have to self isolate if they've been in contact with a positive case. This is based on results from a study that's been running since April.

However, I'm currently taking part in that study. I have to do a lateral flow test every day. If it's negative, I can go out for essential stuff only like work and shopping.

So my question is, has anyone seen any results from this study? I'm not sure how they can make this announcement if the study is still ongoing?
I can see why this measure is needed but I'd like to know the likelihood of someone testing positive even after both jabs.

Interesting.

Probably unlikely, but does it mean no lateral flow testing as well, or if you are double vaccinated you have to lateral flow test?

I hope it’s the later because LFTs are easily abused, ie not done and just reported as negative.

can't find it now but the original info I was given said they had found only 1 in 5 people went on to test positive after being in close contact with a positive case

This is worse than the reported delta which was 1 in 8, and that was supposedly more efficient transmission?

I'd like to know the likelihood of someone testing positive even after both jabs

Yes & how long after both jabs? Does it mean after 21 days or the second they step foot out of the vaccine centre?

BBC Have this story at #2 but for some reason the link to the full story is currently broken!

“A new study has found Greater Manchester’s coronavirus death rate has been 25% higher than elsewhere in England during the pandemic so far.

Research by a leading expert on health inequality found average life expectancy in the North West declined further than the average in the rest of England.

Prof Sir Michael Marmot’s report says health inequalities in Greater Manchester have been exposed and amplified by the pandemic.

Read more here.“

It''ll be interesting now to see the Tories put down the stalling in life expectancy in deprived areas to Covid ( ie''outside their control) when it had already stalled in the two years before the pandemic (austerity)...

Here’s the actual report, which covers February 2020 - March 2021 (commissioned 2019):

www.instituteofhealthequity.org/about-our-work/latest-updates-from-the-institute/greater-manchester-a-marmot-city-region

@NannyAndJohn

My feeling is that we'll end up with the same dynamics as seen in the Warwick projections, just with the dates moved along a little bit.

Yeah. Probably. They were just a bit premature.

Not people saying "Covid is over" extremely, nonsensically premature - just a few weeks/a month out.

I expect hospitalisations and then deaths to do what cases did: look like a plateau fit quite a while, then start rising, then start doubling then the doubling speeds up.

What I don't know is how long that will go on for if the government just let it.

Maybe our behaviour will flatten it out a bit once things start to look alarming - -but after a certain point the hospitalisations and deaths and lives blighted by illness and long covid are "bakers in", aren't they?

Yes they are but I dont think with this virus it was ever going to be anything but.

@PrincessNutNuts @NannyAndJohn you two are exhausting. Desperately predicting negative news and clutching at straws when it doesn’t come true with ‘just you wait….!’

It will be 2037 and you’ll still claiming Christmas will be cancelled.

“A new study has found Greater Manchester’s coronavirus death rate has been 25% higher than elsewhere in England during the pandemic so far.

But wouldn't this be 25% higher than the average for England?.

Greater Manchester cant be that much different to other high numbers areas, like Lancashire, West Yorkshire, Leicester, parts of London

@PrincessNutNuts why do you think that deaths will climb too? They aren't so far, and every day more and more of us are vaccinated. I honestly can't see why you would think deaths and hospitalisations will increase in the same way. Yes, cases are rising dramatically but of those cases very few are seriously ill. That's the vaccine doing its job. There's no reason to think it won't continue to do so.

[quote Notsowise]**@PrincessNutNuts* @NannyAndJohn* you two are exhausting. Desperately predicting negative news and clutching at straws when it doesn’t come true with ‘just you wait….!’

It will be 2037 and you’ll still claiming Christmas will be cancelled.[/quote]
I can't help it. I've always been ahead of the curve.

To be honest I thought this was the week that people would start to see what I've been banging on about. I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

How many times do we need to do the "But hospitalisations aren't increasing though...Oh. Now they are. But deaths aren't increasing though...Oh. Now they are." routine before we catch on?

With regards to deaths, I couldn't help but agree with a debate this morning, that we will have to accept a certain number of deaths from Covid. What do posters feel is acceptable?

PrincessNutNuts At some point, it is no longer relevant how many people become infected, or how many people die, as with flu, several thousand die every year, with vaccination, it happens. The same will be true with Covid.