Time to "let it rip"?

[Warhertisuff]

Firstly, let me say that I've been in broadly in favour of restrictions put in place since March 2020, but surely, once we get to 19 July, and we have widespread vaccination coverage (not to mention non-vaccine immunity), we should just go back to normal, completely, and treat Covid like the flu, as effectively that's what we've tamed to be akin to.

No more masks, no more isolation, no more testing and tracing....

Yes, they'll be a spike in cases, and many will get ill, but as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed and people aren't dying in droves, so be it.

I appreciate that there are those who remain vulnerable even after being double-jabbed, but I'd have thought it would be far better for them to shield themselves for a short period as it rips through and burns out like past epidemics, rather than keeping it simmering and retaining a moderate level of risk over a much longer period as we neither do enough to suppress it completely, nor allow things to open up fully enough for it to rip through in a few weeks.

Then as and when variants do arrive (which they probably will) we'll have an even more comprehensive base level of population immunity.

@Delatron

People throw the term ‘social distancing’ around like it means nothing. That it has no impact.

Thousands of business would go bust if we have to carry on with social distancing rules. Which, when all the adult population are vaccinated would be ridiculous no?

What restrictions do people want to carry on once all the over 18s are vaccinated?

Not wanting to dismiss this at all because I know that covid restrictions do have an impact on businesses. I would argue though that allowing it to run freely would also impact businesses but never mind that argument for now.

I would genuinely like to understand what businesses would go bust. I believe the rules are 1m with mask wearing? Where in life are we pretty much on top of everyone else? I can see the issues for large venues, theatres, nightclubs, concerts, stadiums etc but Is there anywhere else?
Can we not allow these places to be exempt from the social distancing but perhaps still mask wearing in some of them, the same way we have with schools exempt from social distancing, if everywhere else is complying then it makes it a much smaller risk? Could use testing as well to allow them to reopen?

@Delatron the biggest mistake we could make is to underestimate how insidious Covid can be. We give it an inch and it’ll take a mile, that is the real world.

Right now We’ve got 15k+ infections per day in summer! That’s with lots of ventilation, outdoor dining and outside activities.

You’re writing off the whole of the arts and entertainment industry!

I work in the fitness industry. I can’t have a full class. I am operating at 50% of my capacity (and income) but that’s ok? Every single person in my class is double vaccinated yet still I have to have a limit on numbers

Why should we carry on with social distancing when all adults are vaccinated? Just because a few are scared.

It won’t run freely will it? Because 89% of the population have antibodies.
So the pool of people to infect is getting smaller and smaller. It won’t run wild. So businesses should be able to get back to normal. There has to be a balance now we have vaccines. Businesses have suffered too much.

@Thewiseoneincognito we were always going to see a rise when we came out of lockdown. Amongst the young and unvaccinated. That was inevitable. There’s no exponential growth and the vaccines will kick in even more now we are doing over 18s

@jumpbounce

This shows vaccines do work, it also shows vaccines are not 100%. When cases are low this isn't an issue because its a percentage of a low number which is a low number but when cases are very high then a small percentage of a large number is still a large number and that's when the issues in terms of NHS capacity arise again.

This shows how effective vaccines are... Only 190 out of 1,320 of fully vaccinated people were hospitalised.

On the basis that the fully vaccinated cohort is still principally those who are over 50 or CEV, and this group comprised 99% of hospitalisations before, had the vaccination programme not happened the remaining 1,130 people who were hospitalised would be a tiny minority of the overall number of hospitalisations which would likely be running into many 10s of thousands.

@Delatron

I definitely agree that if we are in the middle of the third ‘wave’ we need to let it peak and fall naturally now. Hospitals are quieter in summer. Last year we cleverly pushed the second wave to Autumn/winter and had a higher death toll (I think) because of it.

Many hospitals especially in the north are at capacity. Respiratory illnesses in children and the race to treat the backlog cases of other illnesses are part of the reason.

Yes @Maybeetomorrow I have heard that we are seeing an unusual rise in respiratory illnesses in children over the summer. I guess due to lockdown and all the social distancing.

@Delatron

You’re writing off the whole of the arts and entertainment industry!

I work in the fitness industry. I can’t have a full class. I am operating at 50% of my capacity (and income) but that’s ok? Every single person in my class is double vaccinated yet still I have to have a limit on numbers

Why should we carry on with social distancing when all adults are vaccinated? Just because a few are scared.

It won’t run freely will it? Because 89% of the population have antibodies.
So the pool of people to infect is getting smaller and smaller. It won’t run wild. So businesses should be able to get back to normal. There has to be a balance now we have vaccines. Businesses have suffered too much.

I want to understand why you can't operate at full capacity though? Why aren't the government allowing that? I've used gyms and fitness classes and I don't feel like I've ever been closer than a metre to someone anyway even when they have been at full capacity so why can't you operate like that now? If the limit on numbers was removed could you operate closer or to 100% capacity but still having space between people?

89% of adults not the population. Mainly older adults.

This variant requires both vaccines not just the first.

Let it rip and it runs through children and young adults. Their age groups have nowhere near herd immunity because that’s not how it works.

The research in long Covid and brain damage from even mild infections shows this is unethical.

We can try to open more of our economy sure but just letting it rip is unwise.

Well I’d like to but it’s illegal! I don’t fancy getting fined. Spaces are marked out and it’s meter squared. Yes it’s ridiculous. But that’s the law at the moment. When all restrictions are removed I can go back to normal.

89% of adults is 89% of adults. It’s a huge number. Yes fortunately skewed towards the older age groups who need the immunity

[quote Delatron]@Thewiseoneincognito we were always going to see a rise when we came out of lockdown. Amongst the young and unvaccinated. That was inevitable. There’s no exponential growth and the vaccines will kick in even more now we are doing over 18s[/quote]
The numbers are not going down. Yes we expected a rise in numbers but we didn’t expect the type of rise from the Delta variant, that was not factored in to the reopening strategy, we anticipated variants but not this kind. It’s a whole other ball game.

This level of increase is a threat to all the CEV who are double vaccinated, we can not reopen whilst a whole swathe of the population is effectively expected to shield or simply take the risk and chance getting severely ill. This applies to the elderly too, high levels of virus in the population is not acceptable and can not be brushed aside as something to live with.

North hospitals are nowhere near capacity! There are 1453 people in hospital currently with covid

There are almost 2000 hospitals!

Liverpool trust alone had 400 at the peak in November

I’m in high risk area of lancs and we’ve had 4 admitted in past month

@Watapalava

North hospitals are nowhere near capacity! There are 1453 people in hospital currently with covid

There are almost 2000 hospitals!

Liverpool trust alone had 400 at the peak in November

I’m in high risk area of lancs and we’ve had 4 admitted in past month

Many are at capacity with other things not just Covid. That is literally what I said if you read it properly. Add more Covid let rip and it affects treatment oh all those things. Manchester areas have had full a and Es.

@Delatron

If vaccines have an impact on transmission and 89% of the population have antibodies why would cases get ‘very high’ again?

They will rise inevitably. But nowhere near rates seen previously.

We can’t carry on with never ending restrictions just because vaccines aren’t 100%. They are effective ENOUGH.

Almost a quarter of the country has had covid?

(89% with antibodies minus the 65.7 % who've had any kind of vaccine.)

Can you let me know where that 89% of the population has covid antibodies is from because it seems significantly too high to be likely.

Also, what are we calling "very high" cases.?

Because we'll hit 100,000 cases a week next week. We had over 90,000 in the last 7 days.

@Thewiseoneincognito not acceptable to who? Looks like it is acceptable to lots on this thread. I really don't care about case numbers anymore. We can't keep restrictions anymore, restrictions themselves are damaging and affecting much larger numbers.

@PrincessNutNuts you’re assuming increased cases will lead to increased deaths in a manner that will overwhelm the NHS.

If that happens then the vaccines won’t have worked so we’ll need another plan really.

The 89% was reported in the media all week. It was 80% a few weeks ago so makes sense this figure will be increasing. You know as we vaccinate thousands of people each week....

It’s in the latest ONS release it’s 87% in England and 89% in Wales. Think the media were rounding it up to ‘nearly 9/10’. But still it’s an official figure and you’ll find it very difficult to argue that 87% of adults having Covid antibodies won’t have an impact on spread...

[quote Overthebow]@Thewiseoneincognito not acceptable to who? Looks like it is acceptable to lots on this thread. I really don't care about case numbers anymore. We can't keep restrictions anymore, restrictions themselves are damaging and affecting much larger numbers.[/quote]
I think you’ll find plenty of parents who have CV and CEV children that will find it wholly unacceptable. You might not care but that doesn’t mean others on here have such a cold response.

@Thewiseoneincognito yes it'll be unacceptable to some, but acceptable to others. I think the balance is tipping to being acceptable to the majority of people now.

Why is this being compared to the 1918 flu and black death? They had a significantly higher mortality rate.

I don't care about strangers with covid just as I've never cared about strangers who have terminal cancer or heart disease.

There has to be an end point soon with the restrictions because this country cannot go on like this, living in fear of the latest variant and July 19th, when most adults will have two vaccine doses, is when it has to happen. These restrictions have fucked up the lives of thousands (millions?) of people but of course the government and media emphasis is on deaths from and with and saving the lives of people at all costs. Because in this country we, generally, cannot accept death.

[quote Delatron]@PrincessNutNuts you’re assuming increased cases will lead to increased deaths in a manner that will overwhelm the NHS.

If that happens then the vaccines won’t have worked so we’ll need another plan really.[/quote]
No I'm not.

@1dayatatime you have clearly never seen HIV in action. I'm choosing that you are ignorant rather than choosing to be offensive.

Viruses dont sit down and discuss strategy. If (when) a variant of Ebola evolves that is slightly more transmissable, the fact that it kills 50% of those it infects wont hinder its spread for a long time. There are many viruses that are able to combine high mortality with transmittability. For those we tend to develop vaccines, previously we just died in high number.