Time to "let it rip"?

[Warhertisuff]

Firstly, let me say that I've been in broadly in favour of restrictions put in place since March 2020, but surely, once we get to 19 July, and we have widespread vaccination coverage (not to mention non-vaccine immunity), we should just go back to normal, completely, and treat Covid like the flu, as effectively that's what we've tamed to be akin to.

No more masks, no more isolation, no more testing and tracing....

Yes, they'll be a spike in cases, and many will get ill, but as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed and people aren't dying in droves, so be it.

I appreciate that there are those who remain vulnerable even after being double-jabbed, but I'd have thought it would be far better for them to shield themselves for a short period as it rips through and burns out like past epidemics, rather than keeping it simmering and retaining a moderate level of risk over a much longer period as we neither do enough to suppress it completely, nor allow things to open up fully enough for it to rip through in a few weeks.

Then as and when variants do arrive (which they probably will) we'll have an even more comprehensive base level of population immunity.

The 3 Spanish flu waves and the London 1666 Great Plague are examples. They came, struck havoc, and went again within a couple of months

Yes, the Great Plague burnt out due to the Great Fire of London in 1666. That's what we need, clearly, a worldwide fire.

@Overthebow

Pretty sure this is what the government is planning anyway, they are very wet on a July 19th happening and didn’t want to delay from June 21st. Hope it all goes ahead as planned.

I think it is... but it seems some want to retain the vestiges of the restrictions we are leaving behind.

@RestingCatsBumFace

The 3 Spanish flu waves and the London 1666 Great Plague are examples. They came, struck havoc, and went again within a couple of months

Yes, the Great Plague burnt out due to the Great Fire of London in 1666. That's what we need, clearly, a worldwide fire.

Exactly what I came on to say. I've kind of got used to a widespread poor grasp of science over the last 18 months. But there's clearly a poor grasp of history too.

@RestingCatsBumFace

The 3 Spanish flu waves and the London 1666 Great Plague are examples. They came, struck havoc, and went again within a couple of months

Yes, the Great Plague burnt out due to the Great Fire of London in 1666. That's what we need, clearly, a worldwide fire.

My history knowledge is sound...

www.museumoflondon.org.uk/discover/three-myths-you-believe-about-great-fire-london

As the link said, the plague continued (as Covid will) but the main surge occurred over a relatively brief period.

Great Fire of London and Great Plague is a case of correlation not necessarily being causation! The plague was spread person-to-person like Covid.... The fact that many died in the fire is irrelevant. Rats were to the plague as bats (or a Wuhan lab!) are to Covid.

@Delatron

I’ve been double vaccinated and I’m not vulnerable.

Apart from unfortunately CEV children who vulnerable are left to vaccinate?

So those becoming ill at the moment are in a low risk of complications group. Plus 89% of the population have antibodies so how much ‘ripping through’ could it do?

Obviously this post has affected the ‘but long Covid’ crowd. There will always be long Covid, there will always be Covid.

Delatron I'm double vaccinated but because of medication I'm on, nobody knows how well the vaccination will work. Could be completely ineffective. I was in the ECV group and shielding. My dc are back at school so shielding now is impossible really.

@Warhertisuff

Great Fire of London and Great Plague is a case of correlation not necessarily being causation! The plague was spread person-to-person like Covid.... The fact that many died in the fire is irrelevant. Rats were to the plague as bats (or a Wuhan lab!) are to Covid.

I meant to say "The fact that many rats died in the fire is irrelevant."

My history knowledge is sound...

No, it isn't.

@unwuthering

My history knowledge is sound...

No, it isn't.

How isn't it?

See above. Neither the Great Plague of 1665 or the Spanish flu came and went again in "a couple of months".

@unwuthering

See above. Neither the Great Plague of 1665 or the Spanish flu came and went again in "a couple of months".

The three individual waves of the Spanish Flu did come in sharp waves, rising and falling fast, remarkably so in fact.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46265074.amp

@justwanttodanceagain

it rips through and burns out like past epidemics

How many past epidemics have ripped through and burned out?

Well, the Black Plague did...but not before it killed 60% of the European population. Granted, the current variants of COVID-19 are not nearly so lethal, but I have to wonder about future mutations. Let's face it, the only mutations that survive and spread are those that are successful. The newer variations are far more easily spread.

@Mamanyt the most successful viruses, that survive and spread, are the ones that transmit easily but don’t kill their host. They need hosts to survive.

To be fair, past pandemics have indeed ripped through and then ‘burnt out’ (in that they simmered away as endemic in the populations, so didn’t go exactly, but covid will end up there too).

That said I don’t think it’s a good idea to ditch absolutely everything on 19 July, because the impact of waiting until everyone’s double vaxxed will be considerable. Once everyone who wants to be double vaxxed has been, though, then I’d agree we need to move to a more traditional model for handling public health. Inform people but let them make their own decisions, like we do with flu/STIs/obesity/etc.

The three individual waves of the Spanish Flu did come in sharp waves, rising and falling fast, remarkably so in fact.

Read a bit more widely. Four successive waves over two years - not "a couple of months". Killing between 20 and 50 million people, though some say many more.

The great plague you mentioned was also not over in "a couple of months" - beginning in late 1664 and carrying on until 1666.

I don't think many global pandemics 'rip through and burn out' as quickly as one might wish.

Again, I refer you to the Black Plague, which did kill the host more often than not, but spread VERY easily. Killed at least 60% of sufferers, and almost probably FAR higher, as not everyone caught it.

Ripped through... 1346 to 1353.

OH...the mortality rate for plague in the USA before antibiotic treatments were found was about 66%. I can only imagine that in the 1300s, with the extreme lack of medical knowledge and care, that the number was higher.

Fun fact...during this time, cats were being rounded up and killed for fear of being familiars, leaving the rats, with their abundance of plague-ridden fleas, to roam at large.

@unwuthering

Ripped through... 1346 to 1353.

That is "ripped through" in those days. No jets, no people taking holidays in exotic places. Walk, or if VERY wealthy, ride horses. "Rip" is relative to speed of travel.

The Great Plague isn't a good example as it was stopped by the Great Fire of London.

Oh, I see someone got there before me.

What is the answer then?

What should we do ?

@Warhertisuff, so I'm assuming you wont mind catching it, ending up in hospital or dealing with long covid and you wont complain when any of your family get it, and you have to change your circumstances to car e for them.

But of course, it wont happen to you....

Can you all stop quoting the plague as an example, as it was a bacterial and not viral, totally different and as for Spanish flu it didn't 'burn out' we still have the vestiges of it around today all be it a heavily mutated watered down version .

@justwanttodanceagain

it rips through and burns out like past epidemics

How many past epidemics have ripped through and burned out?

All of the flu type ones (over the years there have been many) since they are no longer epidemics. It's what would happen normally without the help of a vaccine or lockdown but lots of people could die - however, now lots are vaccinated that won't happen.