Time to "let it rip"?

[Warhertisuff]

Firstly, let me say that I've been in broadly in favour of restrictions put in place since March 2020, but surely, once we get to 19 July, and we have widespread vaccination coverage (not to mention non-vaccine immunity), we should just go back to normal, completely, and treat Covid like the flu, as effectively that's what we've tamed to be akin to.

No more masks, no more isolation, no more testing and tracing....

Yes, they'll be a spike in cases, and many will get ill, but as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed and people aren't dying in droves, so be it.

I appreciate that there are those who remain vulnerable even after being double-jabbed, but I'd have thought it would be far better for them to shield themselves for a short period as it rips through and burns out like past epidemics, rather than keeping it simmering and retaining a moderate level of risk over a much longer period as we neither do enough to suppress it completely, nor allow things to open up fully enough for it to rip through in a few weeks.

Then as and when variants do arrive (which they probably will) we'll have an even more comprehensive base level of population immunity.

@nether

It seems some have the mindset to continue restrictions for ever

You've missed out the middle ground option of continuing for as long as it is the most humane thing to do

Not the most humane thing to do for the many whose life’s are being destroyed by it, or the children having education majorly disrupted. We can’t continue restrictions to protect a very, very small minority.

But we can’t say the vaccine doesn’t work for the 2.2 million CEV people that were asked to shield? That’s just not true. It will work for many of them.

It depends on the reason you were CEV? From
what I read if you are immune suppressed (due to cancer treatment l) then the vaccine may not work. I don’t dismiss this, I’ve had cancer and zero immune system. These people need to be very careful.

If you have other conditions that made you vulnerable (so asthma, diabetes, etc) the vaccine could still protect you and be effective?

It’s definitely not all the CEV that the vaccines don’t work for.

@Delatron

But we can’t say the vaccine doesn’t work for the 2.2 million CEV people that were asked to shield? That’s just not true. It will work for many of them.

It depends on the reason you were CEV? From
what I read if you are immune suppressed (due to cancer treatment l) then the vaccine may not work. I don’t dismiss this, I’ve had cancer and zero immune system. These people need to be very careful.

If you have other conditions that made you vulnerable (so asthma, diabetes, etc) the vaccine could still protect you and be effective?

It’s definitely not all the CEV that the vaccines don’t work for.

It will work for many of them, the point is how many are willing to risk catching Covid to try out how effective the vaccine is? Their chances of being infected will be greater if it’s left to work it’s way through the population unchecked.

I have a family member with COPD, double vaccinated who was reluctant to leave their house mid April when our numbers were massively down, now with them as they are they are remaining indoors.

How many people across the country are in a similar predicament? How many elderly would be worrying about how they will live their lives if everyone is letting it rip? How many relatives who live with CEV members will be worried at the prospect of potentially contracting and passing on Covid with the numbers being allowed to let rip?

you have other conditions that made you vulnerable (so asthma, diabetes, etc) the vaccine could still protect you and be effective?

Well that's the question isn't it. Wasn't Tim Spectre of the Zoe app recently talking about indications that people with inflammatory conditions - including diabetes, and separately obesity - night be less protected by vaccines? Perhaps I misunderstood what he was saying (too much multi tasking on my part).

What we do know is that recent research says that asthma seems to increase the risk of Long Covid.

very, very small minority.

2 million and counting suffering with Long Covid. Very likely an underestimate because patients (including children) have been really struggling to have their symptoms taken seriously.

I posted an article a day or so ago from the Telegraph. About a young woman who was dismissed as having 'post Covid anxiety'. Standard scans came back clear. It was only when she saw a specialist and had a different type of scan that they found the life threatening clots in her lungs.

2 million (at the very least) is not a 'tiny minority'.

Well, letting it rip is the strategy now.

However 1% of 500,000 is the same as 10% of 50,000, so it depends on exactly the size of the spike and the hospitalisation rate.

A very low percentage of a very large number could still overwhelm our hospitals and lead to another lockdown.

Tealights

Long covid is anyone having symptoms lasting over a month

Diagnosis is via a questionnaire

Main group is middle age parents according to the data and the main symptom is tiredness

The vast majority of those 2 million likely are tired generally - I’m a middle age knackered parent and if solone asked me I’d say same and likely be diagnosed long covid

I’m not dismissing it exists but to suggest 2 million are ‘suffering’ is bollocks

Not to mention that the people in the long covid study were never tested for covid in first place!

@Tealightsandd

very, very small minority.

2 million and counting suffering with Long Covid. Very likely an underestimate because patients (including children) have been really struggling to have their symptoms taken seriously.

I posted an article a day or so ago from the Telegraph. About a young woman who was dismissed as having 'post Covid anxiety'. Standard scans came back clear. It was only when she saw a specialist and had a different type of scan that they found the life threatening clots in her lungs.

2 million (at the very least) is not a 'tiny minority'.

We were talking about CEV, not long covid. The small minority i was talking about were the CEV who aren’t protected by the vaccine.

@Watapalava

Not to mention that the people in the long covid study were never tested for covid in first place!

Yes hence why so many have struggled to access diagnosis. Add in that standard scans miss things like the life threatening blood clots (caused by Long Covid) suffered by this young woman, and it's almost certain the 2 million is an underestimate.

www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/long-covid-bad-struggle-talk-doctors-dismissed-psychosomatic/amp/

Main group is middle age parents

The key membership of Mumsnet then.

So far it seems, but definitely they're not the only group. It can affect anyone including children (hence the government setting up 15 paediatric clinics to treat it).

Data suggests it's more likely to be women. Perhaps why it's being downplayed?

Pretty awful for children. Their parents left ill and unable to work.

I have a family member with COPD, double vaccinated who was reluctant to leave their house mid April when our numbers were massively down, now with them as they are they are remaining indoors. How many people across the country are in a similar predicament? How many elderly would be worrying about how they will live their lives if everyone is letting it rip? How many relatives who live with CEV members will be worried at the prospect of potentially contracting and passing on Covid with the numbers being allowed to let rip?

I sympathise with those in this predicament, but with 83% of adults having had their first vaccination, we're not far from our limit now (I don't imagine we'll get much beyond 90%). By 19 July, we're set to add another 10 million jabs if we continue at our current rate. A double-dose of the vaccine cuts hospitalisations by c.95%, probably even more for deaths.

If we can't open up once vaccines have been rolled out, and Covid is here to stay globally, what's the answer other than never-ending restrictions which realistically are never going to do any more than dampen numbers somewhat over time, and your relative will feel a prisoner forevermore.... or we can accept that we need to let infections run their course as immunity levels rise to a level that the virus is suppressed naturally.., and your relative only has to remain a prisoner until this happens.

Yes, there will continue to be variants... but we can't continue restrictions forever. The more community we've built up, the more readily we'll be able to manage those variants as and when they arrive.

The plaster needs to be ripped off come 19 July - it's better for everyone!

I’m not dismissing it exists but to suggest 2 million are ‘suffering’ is bollocks

Yes bollocks...

www.gov.uk/government/news/new-research-shows-2-million-people-may-have-had-long-covid

It lists those most likely to get it. Including a group that represents around 50% of the population (and probably the majority of MN) - women.

A question for those who want restrictions to continue.... When, if ever, will a couple be able to have a normal wedding again? As surely, Covid will be around forever now...

(Long Covid) Diagnosis is via a questionnaire - not to mention that the people in the study were never tested for covid in first place!

Are you sure about both of these, Watapalava? Because if it's so it beggars the imagination

Still, looking on the bright side it would offer a shiny new excuse to the idle. It's a shame about what that could do to those who've genuinely got it, but there you are

I sympathise with those in this predicament, but with 83% of adults having had their first vaccination

Oh the old 'but'. 'I'm not racist but...', etc.

One dose gives only 33% protection.

The need is for the majority (80-90%) to be doubly vaccinated.

There's a reason why other countries are slamming their doors shut to us. We are a high risk country. Ignoring it won't change that fact and it most certainly won't make it go away.

Still, looking on the bright side it would offer a shiny new excuse to the idle.

And this, people, is exactly what Long Covid sufferers are up against.

What that young woman with life threatening clots in her lungs (not seem by standard scans) faced.

What YOU will probably go through if you got it.

And it's why the 2 million figure is almost certainly an underestimate.

@Warhertisuff you and I both know we will be back under full lockdown or at the minimum harsh Tiered restrictions with a few weeks if they allow July to go ahead.

There’s a big difference between ripping a plaster off a healed wound and ripping a plaster off an unhealed one- the wound becomes infected and make the problem worse.

Living with Covid without mitigation is simply impossible in this country. We are too densely populated, we rely heavily on public transport and our schools are overcrowded in many of the towns and cities, our health system is fragile and understaffed and our borders are open to everyone. Once we reach high levels of virus in the population we risk further mutations and the health of those I previously mentioned the CEV and CV. It’s naive to assume we can overcome this through simply vaccinating people.

@Warhertisuff

A question for those who want restrictions to continue.... When, if ever, will a couple be able to have a normal wedding again? As surely, Covid will be around forever now...

Probably not for a long time but does that even matter if it means people can go about their lives without wondering if they’re one of the unlucky few of whom the vaccine won’t protect?

There’s a big difference between ripping a plaster off a healed wound and ripping a plaster off an unhealed one- the wound becomes infected and make the problem worse.

Well put.

Probably not for a long time but does that even matter if it means people can go about their lives without wondering if they’re one of the unlucky few of whom the vaccine won’t protect?

So all normal gatherings of people should be off limits for years and years to come. No, no way, that's not going to happen, and shouldn't happen. And I'm someone who has supported lockdowns and restrictions to date.... What on Earth was the point of the vaccine we're continuing to live in social distanced world with no end in sight?

If, once vaccinations have been rolled out to the majority come 19 July, we let Covid take its natural course, we should be able get back to normal sooner, with the vaccine allowjng us to manage Covid as a society with the same measures we manage flu.

@Tealightsandd

There’s a big difference between ripping a plaster off a healed wound and ripping a plaster off an unhealed one- the wound becomes infected and make the problem worse.

Well put.

You don't (at least I don't) leave the plaster on though until the wound has fully healed and the scab has fallen off.

Vaccinations prevent 95% of hospitalisations. The vast majority of those at risk have been vaccinated. We should be able to manage a wave where hospitalisations are 5% of what they would have been pre-vaccine.

@Thewiseoneincognito

.... you and I both know we will be back under full lockdown or at the minimum harsh Tiered restrictions with a few weeks if they allow July to go ahead.

No I don't accept your pessimistic gloom, and don't despair the efficacy of vaccinations. Your position is not supported by science or observation, and seems to be a kind of dystopian nihilism that borders on being anti-vacs by saying it is ineffective in protecting from disease and allowing society to re-open, and is essentially pointless.

I do honestly wonder how much some of the people talking about long covid EVER cared about post viral fatigue before this. Or CFS/ME and fibromyalgia (which can both be developed after illness).

How much did you do to support people suffering with this before covid? Or is it kind of just a convenient thing to wheel out to support the continuing of restrictions? I have an auto immune condition which causes similar symptoms, and I’m also being investigated for fibromyalgia. Barely anyone has ever really given a shit, but suddenly if these things are caused by covid it’s the worst thing ever.

Yes hopefully Warhertisuff

Once the majority are fully vaccinated.

Obviously that includes the rest of the world. I'm with Biden on this. A temporary vaccine patent waiver would massively help to speed things up.