Another one?

[Parthena]

God it just goes on and on. Who would seriously be able to stomach another lockdown

[quote Delatron]@strangeshapedpotato
Seriously? I never said anything like that about flu. Yet again you just make things up. You’ll find that really helps your argument....

I said the experts were saying we could have an issue with flu this year. For flu I didn’t actually specify why. But it will be because we normally base the vaccine on what the predominant strain has been in Australia. That didn’t happen so it’s a bit of a guess.

You are basically twisting what everyone has said. Nobody has said your immune system is a muscle. Nobody has said it needs to practice. They were all your words.

Myself and many others (you know scientists 🙄) have pointed out that for many, including babies, children and pregnant women, it’s not a good thing to not be exposed to the usual common colds and viruses and build up resistance to them.

We are all saying the same thing yet you are constantly misinterpreting and misquoting people. It’s rather strange. Though I see you’re doing on another thread so must be your debating style.[/quote]
I don’t doubt it will be a bad flu year. It’s a worry for respiratory viruses that babies and children would normally have spent the last year or so building up some resistance too. Add in the constant anti-bac gel and yes this winter is a worry. We’ve all been locked away in a sterile bubble.

Your words.

I don't need to twist anything - you keep repeating this utter crap that somehow people can build up resistance to future viruses without actually being infected by them.

I've challenged you to find a scientific source claiming that exposure of children to any viruses (pox excepted) was good for them as you put it - I'm still waiting.

Flu could pose a 'bigger problem' than Covid this winter because very few people currently have immunity against it, a top Government scientist warned today.

Professor Anthony Harnden, who advises No10 on Covid vaccines, said there had been a 'very, very low' prevalence of influenza over the past few years.

He added that flu cases plunged to 'virtually nil' when the pandemic hit as lockdowns and social distancing rules curbed the spread of other respiratory viruses.

Professor Harnden, deputy chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said the low rates meant barely anyone had been exposed to flu and built up natural immunity, leaving the bulk of the population vulnerable.

He warned it could cause havoc on the NHS this winter if there is a large influenza outbreak.

'I will emphasise that actually flu could be potentially a bigger problem this winter than Covid,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

'We've had a very, very low prevalence of flu for the last few years, particularly virtually nil during lockdown, and we do know that when flu has been circulating in very low numbers immunity drops in the population, and it comes back to bite us.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9708329/Flu-bigger-problem-Covid-winter-immunity-low-advisor-warns.html

Btw this is why we will reopen on July 19th I suspect, because they want to restart social contact before the winter, precisely to take some of the bite out of this.

Its been said there is a window of opportunity this summer to reopen and potentially get another wave of covid through the summer (i guess so it doesn't bottleneck as much with a possible flu season).

This will still be milder than covid but still a strain on health services.

I've not had a cold / cough since Feb 2020 which is highly unusual for me, and i cant be alone in this.

@RedToothBrush

Flu could pose a 'bigger problem' than Covid this winter because very few people currently have immunity against it, a top Government scientist warned today.

Professor Anthony Harnden, who advises No10 on Covid vaccines, said there had been a 'very, very low' prevalence of influenza over the past few years.

He added that flu cases plunged to 'virtually nil' when the pandemic hit as lockdowns and social distancing rules curbed the spread of other respiratory viruses.

Professor Harnden, deputy chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said the low rates meant barely anyone had been exposed to flu and built up natural immunity, leaving the bulk of the population vulnerable.

He warned it could cause havoc on the NHS this winter if there is a large influenza outbreak.

'I will emphasise that actually flu could be potentially a bigger problem this winter than Covid,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

'We've had a very, very low prevalence of flu for the last few years, particularly virtually nil during lockdown, and we do know that when flu has been circulating in very low numbers immunity drops in the population, and it comes back to bite us.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9708329/Flu-bigger-problem-Covid-winter-immunity-low-advisor-warns.html

Btw this is why we will reopen on July 19th I suspect, because they want to restart social contact before the winter, precisely to take some of the bite out of this.

Its been said there is a window of opportunity this summer to reopen and potentially get another wave of covid through the summer (i guess so it doesn't bottleneck as much with a possible flu season).

This will still be milder than covid but still a strain on health services.

I've not had a cold / cough since Feb 2020 which is highly unusual for me, and i cant be alone in this.

Please read my previous replies - I've already stated that the ONLY change is one of timing - i.e instead of flu cases spread out across a year, more will come at once, which IS a problem for hospitals which is exactly what they refer to above.

That's quite different from what Delatron is claiming.

Lockdowns require compliance. Once folks have been vaccinated the levels of compliance reduce dramatically. The only way of convincing the population of the merits of another lockdown is launching yet another project fear. I guess we’ve had “covid 19 project fear” so now they are scraping the bottom of the barrel for “all other respiratory viruses project fear”.

It’s all manipulative bullshit, sadly as a nation we seem to lap it up.

@strangeshapedpotato

Thanks for my quote it’s clear from that I said it will be ‘a bad flu year’ and didn’t specify why. Then I started an entirely new sentence about respiratory viruses which I include the common cold. In line which what all the scientists and medics are discussing currently. I quoted a source and so did another poster.

Yet now you are talking about chicken pox! It’s actually quite funny.

Ah but @strangeshapedpotato knows better than a professor on the joint committee of vaccines and immunisations! Brilliant!

‘Low rates of expose to the flu has meant barely anyone has been exposed and built up natural immunity’ that’s from Professor Hardean.

Actually if you read my post I didn’t even claim that. I meant the vaccine wouldn’t be effective this year. But I see the scientists are worried about this lack of exposure. Not sure what more evidence is required here? You’ve had news articles, quotes from scientists.

I would say the fact you’re bringing up chicken pox (which nobody has mentioned) means you’re not sure what you are arguing about any more @strangeshapedpotato

Maybe time to go back and argue on the data thread? That was going well for you 🤣

@RedToothBrush I’ve not have a cold since I had a very strange and lingering virus in Nov 2019. This is also unheard of for me and not a good thing.

Today 20:20 strangeshapedpotato

TheMotherlode
Your immune system doesn't need fucking practise

Yes it does, this is quite literally how the immune system works confused

No - your immune system remembers previous infections which allows it to provide an immune response against future, similar antigens.

Yes, exactly, your immune system has in essence ‘practiced’ on similar antigens.

It's a worry, dd 2 has asthma. Winter time is usually bad for her, constant colds/respiratory viruses have caused her to become quiet unwell in the past, couple of times requiring hospital admission. She hasn't been unwell now since Dec 19/Jan 20. I am concerned what the winter may bring.

We’ve all been locked away in a sterile bubble.

This is just wrong. There are bacteria and viruses in literally everything we eat and drink, the air we breathe, the surfaces we touch. Even if we aren't going out as much, we do not live in a 'sterile bubble'.

It's interesting how flu practically disappeared last winter. It may be because SARS-COV-2 out-competes flu. At any rate, this could still happen next winter, too, in countries where Covid is still raging. Last winter the govt was all doom and gloom about 'what if we get a bad flu season' and I feel this could just be a repeat.

Flu could pose a 'bigger problem' than Covid this winter because very few people currently have immunity against it, a top Government scientist warned today.

I don't even buy this statement. People have at least partial immunity against various strains of flu caused by past exposures over many years.

The EU recommend that the following strains are included in the 2021-22 flu vaccines:

• an A/Victoria/2570/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;
• an A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020 (H3N2)-like virus;
• a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus

Plus a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus added in for the quadrivalent jab (I think that's for the over 65s)

I think the messaging going out is all wrong. The public needs far more reassurance and encouragement about the future, now, not this constant stream of doom.

I don’t see it as doom mongering at all. It’s providing a more balanced view that there are other illnesses out there which could actually be more troublesome than Covid this winter and that’s an important message.

Especially if you have children.

With flu, I think the issue is that the vaccine may not be as effective due to no flu in the Southern Hemisphere. But that may not matter. It’s not a definite but scientists are worried.

What can we do? I may actually get a flu jab this year (even a less effective one). I’ll be giving my family probiotics and prebiotics. Making sure we are topped up on vitamin D.

If I had a baby I’d be mixing them lots and going to all the mother and baby groups I could.

Sterile bubble is an exaggeration. But anti bac use doesn’t help our immune systems. I’m also ditching that.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what impact shutting ourselves and especially people who are 70/80 plus away from others for over a year will have on our immunity. It's so fun to be an involuntarily participant of a mass experiment

@Lockheart they can try but doubt people will bother joining in again.

This does worry me for DS who is 18 months and doesn’t go to nursery/hasn’t been to soft play or baby groups because they have shut down in my area and not reopened.
He does go to the park and has mixed with his cousins and some friends but that’s about it. He’s had a couple of infections and a croaky throat and that’s it - I don’t think he’s even had a cold yet which isn’t normal

I was hoping he would have mixed a bit more by now but a lot of friends are still being a bit careful.

Hopefully the fact he’s teething constantly and putting everything in his mouth will help a little!

Teething is a brilliant time to boost germ intake. Does he like dogs? If you can find friendly ones for him to stroke they're meant to be fantastic for getting a bit grubby.

@GiveMeNovocain he adores them! I’ll have to get my best friend round a bit more with her dog :)

[quote Bellasblankexpression]@GiveMeNovocain he adores them! I’ll have to get my best friend round a bit more with her dog :)[/quote]
Hopefully your bf will give him hugs too. My dd asks to stroke every dog she sees. It took years of nagging but we finally gave in and got one. Parks, people, animals will all really help give him some exposure then you'll be cursing me as he gets his first cold!

@GiveMeNovocain yes I’m hopeful now that we are seeing more people it’s helping him in that respect and I take him into town/supermarket/ park etc so he (literally) bumps into other kids there

It’s such a strange time!

@CrunchyCarrot

We’ve all been locked away in a sterile bubble.

This is just wrong. There are bacteria and viruses in literally everything we eat and drink, the air we breathe, the surfaces we touch. Even if we aren't going out as much, we do not live in a 'sterile bubble'.

It's interesting how flu practically disappeared last winter. It may be because SARS-COV-2 out-competes flu. At any rate, this could still happen next winter, too, in countries where Covid is still raging. Last winter the govt was all doom and gloom about 'what if we get a bad flu season' and I feel this could just be a repeat.

Flu could pose a 'bigger problem' than Covid this winter because very few people currently have immunity against it, a top Government scientist warned today.

I don't even buy this statement. People have at least partial immunity against various strains of flu caused by past exposures over many years.

The EU recommend that the following strains are included in the 2021-22 flu vaccines:

• an A/Victoria/2570/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus;
• an A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020 (H3N2)-like virus;
• a B/Washington/02/2019 (B/Victoria lineage)-like virus

Plus a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus added in for the quadrivalent jab (I think that's for the over 65s)

I think the messaging going out is all wrong. The public needs far more reassurance and encouragement about the future, now, not this constant stream of doom.

The scientists are pointing out that normally pregnant women will pass on antibodies because they have exposure during their pregnancy that will benefit their unborn child.

The particular problem here is you have an unusual situation where this hasn't happened, so you have a significantly higher % of babies that will be born without this natural level of protection which makes them more vulnerable than usual.

The whole point is that we have a situation with the very young who really don't have at least partial immunity because of this situation.

I think in terms of older people, we could be potentially be less affected in someways because of the high number of excess deaths, particularly in the over 70s. This means the natural pool of people who would be naturally more vulnerable is perhaps smaller than its been in recent years.

The idea that everyone has at least partial immunity is correct, however this is only to a point and those in the oldest groups, tend to have a declining ability of their immune system to respond without the boost a vaccine gives. But because we are going effectively blind as to which flu strain is likely to be the dominant, we could find ourselves in a situation where the flu vaccine we choose is less effective than previous years, if we don't pick the right one.

I personally think molycoddling the public and not being upfront about the possibility of this is counterproductive. Its useful to know potential risks. I don't see this as 'doommongering' but realism so you can either prepare mentality (as in once you have the vaccine its not completely straighforward, things will be back to normal and we all live happily ever after) and this is part of the pandemic cycle and we should perhaps plan for this both on a practical strategic level or on a personal responsibility level (eg, even if you test negative for covid when you have a snivel, this year really might not be the one to go see that newborn baby or your great aunt Florence which you might have just done without thinking pre-covid or simply, continue to wear a mask in shops this winter even if you don't legally have to because its sensible and responsible until things get more under an even keel).

I am not one for burying things which are negative if they are measured and informative. I think this is.

The headlines that accompany what is said are not coming from the scientists. Thats the media. The scientists are saying 'difficult winter ahead' which is reasonable. They are not saying we will definitely need another 12 week close down of everything.

Just. Caution.

@Delatron

I don’t see it as doom mongering at all. It’s providing a more balanced view that there are other illnesses out there which could actually be more troublesome than Covid this winter and that’s an important message.

Especially if you have children.

With flu, I think the issue is that the vaccine may not be as effective due to no flu in the Southern Hemisphere. But that may not matter. It’s not a definite but scientists are worried.

What can we do? I may actually get a flu jab this year (even a less effective one). I’ll be giving my family probiotics and prebiotics. Making sure we are topped up on vitamin D.

If I had a baby I’d be mixing them lots and going to all the mother and baby groups I could.

Sterile bubble is an exaggeration. But anti bac use doesn’t help our immune systems. I’m also ditching that.

Indeed.

I actually get the impression that the government are going to encourage mixing over the summer because it will help going into winter.

One of the big things being stressed about this reopening by a number of scientists is we have a window of opportunity to do it otherwise you run into other problems - such as the covid wave being delayed into the winter when its more problematic and we also have more seasonal illnesses and probably to get kids mixing and catching stuff now. DS has never had chicken pox for example. Better to get a bunch of cases that would likely happen anyway naturally (even if you do take the appropriate steps with chicken pox - I'm not talking active pox parties here), over and done with now.

'Getting back to normal' isn't purely about covid ending - its also about a rebalancing of other health related issues and its important to fully appreciate this.

I think they are going to do that too @RedToothBrush

Better to have an inevitable increase in cases in summer. It wasn’t a great idea to keep schools closed last year then send all kids back to school/ Uni and people back to the office all at the same time in September!

And a lot of the posters on here will be loving if it it happens, ready to hurl abuse at anyone and scream 'selfish' for anyone daring to break one of their made-up rules. Told they're a disgusting human being for finding isolation tough.

If anyone was paying attention Whitty said at the beginning of all this it would probably take two years so I don't know why anyone is surprised

If anyone was paying attention Whitty said at the beginning of all this it would probably take two years so I don't know why anyone is surprised

A woman at work has a nephew who is virologist, he said this at the beginning, in about Feb 2020, I thought there was noway it would be 2 years.

But now I think he had it spot on.