We're going to have another lockdown aren't we?

[faithfulbird20]

So yesterday we got very quick messages for 2nd vaccine 4 weeks after first and a lot of people were saying that's quick...also today school has said they're cancelling all trips too due coronavirus. I guess there's fear it will get a lot worse...honestly think it will be another year or more before things get better...

I don’t think we should ever plan to leave our houses again.

It’s the only safe way

@TheKeatingFive

You don't think Delta is serious @Suranjeep* *@TheKeatingFive?

I don’t think anyone on the planet thinks it’s as serious as you do nanny

🤭

Oh and Christmas is happening in this house. I can tell you that for nowt! Even my extremely rule abiding (double jabbed) parents have decreed that!

I thought data @NannyAndJohn was showing it was no longer exponentially growing and that growth had slowed and rumours are growing the 5th July is looking good because vaccines work

Of course you have not mentioned the Nepal variant for awhile

All this talk of Delta, Catherine Zeta, Kappa Kappa Gamma etc variants is going to quicky get a bit like the boy who cried wolf....then if a serious one does emerge people wont care

I don’t entirely disagree but then we’re meant to be adults who should be able to process information with swinging wildly to either end of extreme.

Not specifically covid, but how often do you see/hear people moaning about being ‘nannied’ or requesting to be treated like adults and given all the relevant information. If we want information then it looks like we have to deal with those who apparently can’t process it without either doomsdaying it or writing it off completely. Neither end of extreme is great.

It would be political suicide and also kind of pointless. People won’t comply so would be meeting in houses. If people are going to meet the government might as well let them meet in pubs and restaurants and theatres and give the economy a boost.

[quote Sweak]@NannyAndJohn
*There's definitely justification for additional restrictions.

Though leave it a month and I reckon there'll be justification for a full lockdown.*

There was a justification for extending the current restrictions (the modelling on deaths and the need to get more people jabbed). There is no justification for additional restrictions at this time. The death and hospital rates aren't high enough. It would have an adverse effect on the population..people need to be able to earn a living.

A full lockdown in a month? July..when schools will be shut anyway, more people will be outdoors, more people will have been jabbed (double and single)...makes no sense.

You can't really be thinking like this? What was the point in us getting vaccinated then? If you want people to take you seriously you need to be realistic.

I see your name on these sorts of threads time and time again...always doom and gloom no matter the situation. What's your agenda? I don't think anyone can seriously be thinking we need a lock down in a month[/quote]
If you wait until deaths are high before reintroducing restrictions then you've failed to successfully control the wave.

We need to be looking at cases. If we reintroduce restrictions when cases start to rise (which they have been, exponentially, for a while now) then we can get the wave under control and limit the number of hospitalisations and deaths. Unfortunately the government have once again left it too late.

The vaccines work. But we need 87% fully vaccinated for herd immunity. We're only half way there. And that's not taking into account boosters or new Variants.

No agenda, I just look at the data and the projections.

87% fully vaccinated for herd immunity, @Legoninjago1, until then R will remain above 1 without restrictions, and cases (and hospitalisations, and deaths) will continue to rise.

We're only half way there.

We need to be looking at cases

No, we don't. We need to be looking at hospital admissions and deaths. Hence why many are now saying once everyone is double jabbed the manic testing has to stop. Especially in schools.

@TheKeatingFive

You don't think Delta is serious @Suranjeep* *@TheKeatingFive?

I don’t think anyone on the planet thinks it’s as serious as you do nanny

Luckily my grasp of mathematics is strong enough (as you'd expect from someone with a maths degree!) to realise the severity of the situation.

@Waxonwaxoff0
Part time school rotas should never be an option. Education has been disrupted enough and it would also be damaging for women.
Families like ours continue to have education disrupted. It's "we are alright Jack" attitudes just like yours that perpetuate the misery of exclusions for 1000's up and down the Uk. ALL children have the right to an education, it's going to be a monumental feat to get through this with present school bubble arrangements- things and people need to adapt accordingly. If that means rotating schedules combined with some remote learning I don't think it's a big ask. Or does "we are all in this together" only apply to certain groups now?

Luckily my grasp of mathematics is strong enough (as you'd expect from someone with a maths degree!) to realise the severity of the situation.

How lucky we are to have your unique and astounding insight. Quite why you’re not working for the WHO I’ll never know.

Do you still think we'll get to 100k confirmed cases on Monday Nanny?

Do you still think we'll get to 100k confirmed cases on Monday Nanny?

How could the ‘strong grasp of mathematics’ be wrong Bordois?

Of course we will.

The data at the time resulted in a doubling time that would have given us 100000 cases by the 21st.

Thankfully that didn't happen.

But it will eventually.

11000 yesterday and a current doubling time of ~10 days.

Haha, classic 🤣

So many people pointed out the flaws in your claim at the time but you insisted you were correct.

So your ‘modelling’ is bunkum.

Got it 😆

@NannyAndJohn

The data at the time resulted in a doubling time that would have given us 100000 cases by the 21st.

Thankfully that didn't happen.

But it will eventually.

11000 yesterday and a current doubling time of ~10 days.

So you agree the growth is slowing then?

Dodgy maths and still going with ideas of being correct

I don’t think we will lockdown again.
Local restrictions with mask/social distancing/hand gel enforced maybe. You

I wonder what could have caused the doubling rate to drop from 4 days to 10 days?

Vaccination can't have had any effect because Nanny said the increased transmisabilty of Delta negated vaccines, and as we know, they are such an expert.

So, any insights Nanny?

Does nanny have, how shall I say this, another alias?

Because I associate the fantasy maths more strongly with another user name.

Exponential growth is still exponential growth.

@Bordois

I wonder what could have caused the doubling rate to drop from 4 days to 10 days?

Vaccination can't have had any effect because Nanny said the increased transmisabilty of Delta negated vaccines, and as we know, they are such an expert.

So, any insights Nanny?

It's because there is more noise in the data when cases are lower.

With larger numbers comes less uncertainty.

Ah where would this crew be without being able to bust out ‘exponential growth’.

Is that on the crib sheet? When your sums are clearly shown to be bollocks, throw out ‘exponential growth’ and hope for the best. 😆