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Data, Stats Thread June 11

986 replies

PatriciaHolm · 11/06/2021 15:05

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
125
JanFebAnyMonth · 13/06/2021 21:27
Grin That takes the prize for the second funniest post this thread has ever produced.

First went to a post following one where @anyfucker said a whole sentence. Unfortunately I can’t remember what the response was nor who made it. Several months ago.

BlackeyedSusan · 13/06/2021 21:39

It is quite nice having this thread that is not throwing around the "hysterical/selfish/thick/vulnerable children would die/be hospitalised anyway" accusations and full of hyperbole. (wandered into another thread)

wintertravel1980 · 13/06/2021 21:56

Sorry, I find threads from Deepti Gurdasani highly biased rather than "sobering". She has turned into the UK version of Eric Feigl-Ding.

I find very telling she has chosen to omit an important piece of information - the estimated 64% transmission advantage for Delta applies only to households and is based on early data. There is also no mention of reduced secondary attack rate even though 2 weeks ago (when the number was higher and could have indicated a 60% transmission advantage), Deepti constantly tweeted about it. And, of course, the data tells us a lot about vaccine efficacy (see James Ward's maths) - the results suggest vaccines remain highly (95%+) effective against severe outcomes. Deepti, as always, chooses to ignore this.

Sorry, I cannot take her seriously - Deepti is a typical "unreliable narrator".

Bordois · 13/06/2021 21:59

Unfortunately the "60% more transmissable" claim has been taken as gospel by some. Its not going to go away anytime soon.

strangeshapedpotato · 13/06/2021 22:38

@TruelyonelastSchlep

The vaccines have all been shown to work against the SA variant. Reduction in there effectiveness against infection but still at a level to make a DRAMATIC difference

It is a bugger if a combination of these two has a wave but not enough to muck things up for long. Especially because enough people would be vaccinated by then. Interestingly enough the mutation from the SA variant is thought to be the worst this virus is likely to do and that is brilliant. The vaccines have nailed that mutation.

Have you a source for that claim, because the only study I'm aware of on the AZ vaccine was one in which protection against symptomatic infection was pretty much 0. Granted, protection against serious illness was still expected, but I haven't seen any real-world data to support that.

Secondly - "the worst this virus is likely to do"??? I guarantee no qualified person has made a claim like that. So where on earth did you read it?? The SA variant is actually fairly innocuous because although it has vaccine escape capability, it isn't anywhere near as infectious as the Delta strain, hence it hasn't spread.

The Nepal strain is the worst so far, but in the event of a wave of infections in a highly vaccinated country, a variant with MUCH stronger vaccine evasion capabilities is likely to arise.

A lot of assumptions were made early on about the ability of sars-cov-2 to mutate, based on our previous experience with coronaviruses, but most of them have gone out the window long since. Sars-Cov-2 is a LOT more adaptable than anyone expected.

TruelyonelastSchlep · 13/06/2021 22:39

I think these things are actually quite good. Gives you a clearer sign of who to follow on Twitter etc. If they are knowingly or unknowingly stating rubbish as facts avoid. Definitely a good sign to ignore if they omit important bits of information. Especially to further there own narrative.

Deepti always reminds me of someone that has eaten to many nut nuts Grin Quick to jump out when there is any hint of doom. However posts are full of only part information. Also makes claims if anything is positive people should not be using small amounts of data to jump to conclusions. However if the data fits her own narrative apparently that is ok.

TruelyonelastSchlep · 13/06/2021 22:40
Star
Data, Stats Thread June 11
strangeshapedpotato · 13/06/2021 22:43

@wintertravel1980

Sorry, I find threads from Deepti Gurdasani highly biased rather than "sobering". She has turned into the UK version of Eric Feigl-Ding.

I find very telling she has chosen to omit an important piece of information - the estimated 64% transmission advantage for Delta applies only to households and is based on early data. There is also no mention of reduced secondary attack rate even though 2 weeks ago (when the number was higher and could have indicated a 60% transmission advantage), Deepti constantly tweeted about it. And, of course, the data tells us a lot about vaccine efficacy (see James Ward's maths) - the results suggest vaccines remain highly (95%+) effective against severe outcomes. Deepti, as always, chooses to ignore this.

Sorry, I cannot take her seriously - Deepti is a typical "unreliable narrator".

the estimated 64% transmission advantage for Delta applies only to households

Yes - that's because it's impossible to determine the value elsewhere properly. But given that MOST transmission occurs within the home, it's also by far the most important criterion.

There is also no mention of reduced secondary attack rate
Huh? Do you know what this is? Because you've already accepted the 64% increased secondary attack rate in your previous statement!

And, of course, the data tells us a lot about vaccine efficacy
Nope it doesn't - we have very little data yet on the vaccine efficacy against the Delta strain. We know they still have significant efficacy, but the 95%+ figure - you or the person you're quoting has simply made that up. It's quite possibly true, but we do not have anywhere near enough data to calculate it yet. It's also possible that it's fallen quite a bit!

strangeshapedpotato · 13/06/2021 22:45

@TruelyonelastSchlep

Star
Not real world data.

It's test tube/modelling stuff.

TruelyonelastSchlep · 13/06/2021 22:53

Strange- You are talking a lot of opinion there. Yes the general discussion about what the virus can do mutations wise is just that a discussion. It is however a theory that as the virus has only ever mutated in a set few ways. It is looking very likely that is it. It will only mutate and change in those set ways. Which means the vaccines will likely continue to work for all know variants and future ones. Nothing set in stone yet but the way things are now looking. Hence the confidence in the vaccines from the scientific community. So the general thought is that only the vulnerable will need boosters against future variants. If you listen to Whitty and co they have started to say about boosters. This is why. What you won't get from them though is the reason. They don't state anything that is not as proven as possible.

TruelyonelastSchlep · 13/06/2021 22:58

Strange it is the same as the previous test everyone moans on about. However this time using the longer gap. Rather than the 3/4 week gap. Hence the results being as expected now.

At this stage you are not going to get real world data unless a vaccine is used in a place a variant is running about. Which is why we only have some real world data for the delta using AZ in India. No data other than serum test using Pfizer. Until it rocked up here

We do know from real world data that AZ has reportedly worked better in real life than using serum tests. Therefore no reason to believe SA variant will be any different at all.

wintertravel1980 · 13/06/2021 23:43

Huh? Do you know what this is? Because you've already accepted the 64% increased secondary attack rate in your previous statement!

I am really not sure if I should respond to this but I usually try to give other MN posted (especially on the data thread) the benefit of the doubt...

Here is the PHE technical briefing reviewed by Deepti:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993198/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing.pdf

Pages 26 and 27 provide information on the secondary attack rates for Delta. The latest estimate for all close contacts has been revised down to 11.3%. This number was previously estimated at 12.4% (as at May 11) and 13.5% (as at May 4). The SAR for Alpha has remained at 8%.

The quick and dirty calculation of Delta transmission advantage for all close contacts based on the latest data gives a rough 40% estimate (11.3%/8% - 1). Deepti did very similar maths 2 weeks ago (13.5%/8%-1) and announced the 60% to the whole world. Why not repeat the same calculation now?

I also have not accepted the 64% household number - I previously commented that it was derived from early data and it might change in line with the general SAR. However, if Deepti chooses to comment on it (which is perfectly reasonable - it is part of the briefing), it would have been intellectually honest to explain the number instead of dumping it in the summary tweet as the ultimate truth and completely omitting any reference to households.

amicissimma · 14/06/2021 10:15

I think these things are actually quite good. Gives you a clearer sign of who to follow on Twitter etc. If they are knowingly or unknowingly stating rubbish as facts avoid. Definitely a good sign to ignore if they omit important bits of information. Especially to further there own narrative.

As on Twitter also on Mumsnet. Although it's a shame when the Data and Stats thread (also the good news thread) becomes yet another thread where people post opinions based largely on their own fears.

boys3 · 14/06/2021 10:57

Sanger data file and maps updated within the last hour.

No great surprises given the most recent technical report.

For the most recent week which is up to 5th June, 92% of standard surveillance cases now Delta, and just over 7% Alpha (Kent).

So it may be more interesting to see the Council areas where Alpha is hanging on as the dominant strain.

wintertravel1980 · 14/06/2021 10:57

Just to step back and clarify my previous posts.

The PHE Technical Briefing 15 reviewed by Deepti was discussed here multiple times. I have therefore assumed most posters are familiar with the document and aware it contains different sections:

  • The "Secondary Attack Rate section" (pages 26-27) includes updated information derived from the latest contact tracing findings (going up to June 9). The key number here is SAR for Delta (page 28) which, as we know, appears to have gone down from 13.5% to 11.3%. It is very good news. While the initial estimate (13.5%) got plenty of spotlight from Deepti Gurdasani, the revised lower (and more optimistic) number was completely ignored.
  • The more detailed transmissibility assessment for households producing the 64% increase is described on page 49. It is based on the earlier data (3,795 genetically sequenced cases in residential clusters). I cannot guarantee it will be revised in line with the generic SAR estimates but, using SAGE terminology, we might want to think about it as a "realistic possibility".
TheSunIsStillShining · 14/06/2021 11:21

I was musing on an another aspect of this whole pandemic.
This was not a highly contagious or extremely deadly virus. We can say that in terms of pandemics, we actually got off lightly. Think Ebola as a measure.

But.... Even this, which has relatively low hospitalization (around 10% of all identified cases) has bought our NHS to it's knees.
There were all together less than 500k patients hospitalized in the past 1+ year.
The outcome is over stresses/worked staff, years of backlog accumulated.

MRex · 14/06/2021 11:21

Presuming we can all do a statement of clarification... That report highlights findings based on drastically increased contact testing. I therefore believe the 40% is a top estimate of real life transmission increase from Alpha, and the actual transmission increase is likely to prove to be lower than that. With the majority of cases among younger unvaccinated people it's likely that this is underestimating unvaccinated transmission because vaccinated people aren't being examined separately to get to the raw % transmission number. IF vaccinated people are bringing down the transmissibility stats, that should be accounted for so PHE should separately produce not just transmission figures for unvaccinated or only just vaccinated, single dose + minimum 3 weeks and double dose + minimum 3 weeks - but also highlight the number in each group who were considered to be exposed. If I've missed that then that's my fault, but I just see infection figures in that particular report.

Piggywaspushed · 14/06/2021 11:23

Talking of testing, mobile testing units are coming to my school this week.

Interestingly, I have heard of quite a few schools getting these which were promised as an intervention way back last year and never materialised in December when things were awful. Not sure what that implies about Delta vs Kent and/or PHE proactivity.

JanFebAnyMonth · 14/06/2021 11:56

Posted by a Norfolk mum, apparent wife to an orthopaedic surgeon, on Parents United Fb page (- anecdotal, but it illustrates the point we mentioned last week re summer activities and hospital capacity):

We are at the beginning of another major problem in any holiday spots in the U.K. often more rural with smaller hospitals - this weekend for the first time in June our local hospital is full. My husband’s elective lists are once again having to stop because of huge numbers attending A and E this weekend. Holiday injuries. With nobody holidaying abroad and a rise in Covid cases this could cripple many hospitals this summer.

boys3 · 14/06/2021 14:35

council area numbers from the latest sanger update.

Three column sets showing consolidation of two week figures; so w/e 8 May; 22 May; and 05 June.

First column in each is all standard surveillance cases; second column delta cases identified from this; third column delta %.

For the final two week period the percentage of all surveillance cases and delta cases is shown.

London to get things going

Data, Stats Thread June 11
boys3 · 14/06/2021 14:36

North West 1of 2

Data, Stats Thread June 11
boys3 · 14/06/2021 14:36

North West 2 of 2

Data, Stats Thread June 11
boys3 · 14/06/2021 14:37

East Mids 1 of 2

Data, Stats Thread June 11
boys3 · 14/06/2021 14:37

*East Mids" 2 of 2

Data, Stats Thread June 11
boys3 · 14/06/2021 14:37

East 1 of 2

Data, Stats Thread June 11
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